"Redmond, We Have A Problem..." or Why the 360 Won't Win

[Zilla Man]

Came across this Newsweek article about why MS isn't doing as well despite their early launch, lower price, more games than Wii/PS3 (and Sony's screw ups) and thought it was perfect for System Wars.:)

(BTW, if you think these guys are pro Sony, then check out this thread where they (deservedly so) ripped Sony a new one:http://ncroal.talk.newsweek.com/default.asp?item=531474

I think the MS article is interesting because this guy reached the same conclusion that me, Gadfly, and others have come to several times in this forum:

http://ncroal.talk.newsweek.com/default.asp?item=533168

Posted March 21, 2007 3:27:20 PM

Loot: Redmond, We Have a Problem, Or, What's Wrong With the Xbox 360


"You're not the champ until you beat the champ."

The entire staff of Level Up is seated in the Manhattan speakeasy Little Branch, opposite two Microsofties--one former, one current. Several drinks into a conversation about the console wars, Former has just asked us, at what point in the cycle do you think you're going to declare Microsoft the winner? Which prompts the rejoinder that opened this post. We proceed to inform him that back in 2001, as we were in edits on our story about the launch of the first Xbox, there was a line that had been cut from our piece that we wished had remained, because it would have been a very prescient quote to have on the record. The quote? "Xbox will be Microsoft's Vietnam."

At this point, Former becomes impassioned. That's not fair, he says; we always saw this as a long-term venture. To which we reply that we were talking about the original Xbox, and while other divisions of the company throw off more profits in a single quarter than the entire $5 billion or so lost in the home and entertainment division to date, the fact remains that, as we take-our-word-for-it predicted, the Xbox group has been spectacularly unprofitable for Microsoft. Hence, our heretofore unpublished Vietnam analogy. The rest of the night is a blur, but we digress.

Here at Level Up, we pride ourselves on giving good quote when asked, and our quote in yesterday's issue of USA Today that "the PS3 is sucking wind right now," seems to have delivered the goods, as evidenced by its coverage on the Internet and the emails coming across our transom. We've known USA Today's Mike Snider for several years, and have tremendous respect for his work. However, we also try to be holistic in our analysis, and there were some opinions that we shared about Sony's competitors that didn't end up in the finished copy. There's nothing sinister in Snider's decision; we completely understand that the focus of his published story was the PS3's woes, which we ourselves addressed yesterday. But we thought we'd take this opportunity to provide a more comprehensive look at the February NPD numbers for the U.S. market, and explain to Former why we don't expect to proclaim a Microsoft victory at the end of this console cycle.

Microsoft entered the month of February with many advantages. The Xbox 360 had a 12 month head start on its rivals. There's plenty of stock on store shelves. It has far more games available than either PS3 or Wii, and several of those games are available for $20 to $30. And perhaps most importantly, it has a $299 SKU that's priced $200 cheaper than the least expensive PS3, just $50 more than the Wii, and at exactly the same price point the PS2 occupied when it obliterated its competition in 2001. Yet despite those considerable advantages--and even though five of February's top ten 10 best-selling SKUs were on Xbox 360--the best Microsoft could do was outsell the higher-priced PS3 by 101,000 units, while succumbing to the supply-constrained Wii by 107,000 units. That's not the kind of performance that portends market dominance. Nor is cutting your shipment forecast through June 2007 from 13-15 million to 12 million. But Microsoft has done that too.

The reason that we spent much of last fall discussing the sluggish Xbox 360 sales with our interview subjects is because we were genuinely mystified as to why it wasn't doing better, and, more importantly, why wasn't the steadily growing number of hit titles causing a commensurate growth in the installed base? The signs of this weakness have been apparent for months, yet it went largely undiscussed--a notable exception was the forum-dwellers at NeoGAF--and when we queried industry veterans about it, they seemed genuinely mystified and would struggle to offer explanations.

In this vacuum of analysis, statements like the following went pretty much unchallenged. At this year's Consumer Electronics Show, Microsoft general manager Chris Satchell told GamesIndustry.biz, "We've sold 10.4 million [Xbox 360s], but the stat you may not have heard is that over half of those sales are from people that didn't own an Xbox 1." That statement sounds impressive--until you realize that at that point in time, Xbox 360 sell-through was still trailing that of the original Xbox. If Microsoft is getting all of these new customers--and we have no reason to doubt the veracity of Satchell's statement--shouldn't their installed base have been 1.5x that of the original, as opposed to lagging behind? (Please don't use pricing as an excuse; as we pointed out above, there' a $299 SKU that's been available since launch, and if PS2 was able to become a runaway success at the same point in its lifespan at that price point, price alone can't explain the sales gap.) In other words, if you look at the half-empty part of the glass Satchell raised, there are clearly a large number of Xbox 1 owners who haven't yet bought an Xbox 360. Why?

Part of the problem is that in the absence of a new Halo game, there's been a slower-than-expected conversion of Xbox owners to Xbox 360. As of last fall, half of the people playing Halo 2 were doing so on the original Xbox, not the Xbox 360. That's why the upcoming Halo 2 map pack will only work on Xbox 360--Microsoft needs to force recalcitrant Halo-lovers to buy their new machine. Another challenge for Microsoft may be that most Xbox 1 units sold at $199 or less; in fact, when Halo 2 shipped in November of 2004, the price of the Xbox had been set at $149 for seven months.

By contrast, PS2 held price at $299 for its first two Christmases, and $199 for the subsequent holiday. So despite the hardcore nature of many Xbox aficionados--i.e. they love shooters and they buy a lot of games--many of the gamers that made Halo 2 a phenomenon could conceivably be even more price-sensitive on the hardware side than their PS2 counterparts, and thus perceive even the $299 Core as either too expensive and/or too lacking in value compared to the $399 model. Microsoft is no slouch when it comes to market research, and if our above hunch is correct, it could finally explain why the company opted for a two-SKU strategy even though hardcore gamers loudly derided it.

The final reason why we don't expect to crown Xbox 360 the champ when all is said and done is somewhat tautological: until we see the evidence that it's capable of reaching the true mass market the way that the PS1 and PS2 did, we won't believe that it can. What the original Xbox proved, and the Xbox 360 is proving even moreso, is that Microsoft has learned how to strip-mine the hardcore gamer. (The evidence? Gears of War is one of the biggest console hits in recent history, yet the Wii is kicking the 360's ass and taking its name. And as we stated earlier, even before the Wii and PS3 launched, the 360 was steadily producing one or two hits a month, yet monthly hardware sales were consistently below 300,000 units, and were often closer to 200,000 units.)


Based on the concentric circle theory of product dispersal--at the center are a smaller number of hardcore gamers who buy lots of games; on the outside are a larger number of ultra casuals who buy fewer games, with a number of audience segments in between going from more hardcore to less hardcore--the further away you get from the hardcore center, the less evidence we've seen of Microsoft's ability to reach those broader, more casual audiences. The generals at Microsoft Game Studios have sent into the fray soldiers as varied as Fusion Frenzy, Voodoo Vince, Grabbed by the Ghoulies, Kameo and Viva Pinata. None of them got the job done.

By contrast, Sony has brands developed in each of three major territories--North America (Jak, Ratchet & Clank, Sly Cooper, ATV Offroad Fury), Europe (SingStar, Buzz!, EyeToy) and Japan (Gran Turismo, Hot Shots Golf, Ape Escape)--with demonstrated appeal to broader audiences: children, women, casual gamers. That's why the Game Developers Conference introductions of Home and LittleBigPlanet were so important: they show that Sony continues to develop products that can appeal to the parts of the market that are necessary to drive hardware sales past 26 million (Xbox 1) to well over 100 million (PS1 and PS2) once they get within striking range on the pricing. The burden of proof is on Microsoft to prove that it can deliver products with that kind of appeal, and in the seven years since it stepped into the ring, it has yet to do so.

The folks at Microsoft would like to believe that, their worse-than-ever performance in Japan notwithstanding, the only ceiling that existed on the Xbox 1's sales stemmed from their late entry to the market. They may well be right. But while Microsoft has taken advantage of its first-mover advantage--most notably the establishing of Xbox 360 as third party developers' base platform; much-improved third party support from Japanese developers; the peeling away of Sony's historic timed exclusivity on the Grand Theft Auto franchise; and the positioning of Xbox Live and Xbox Live Arcade in a way that for now neutralizes the PR value of Sony's free but less-feature-rich online service--we suspect that there are a number of other challenges that will keep prevent the 360 from breaking into the mass market in the way that the PS2 did. And the numbers thus far back us up very clearly on this point.

The worst case scenario for Microsoft, then, is one in which the Xbox 360's bid for the mass market is blocked by the Wii for the next two to three years, at which point the aging and underpowered Wii gives way to a cheaper-than-it-is-now PS3 with a selection of AAA titles that's far wider than what the PS3 has at the moment; new installments of Playstation's own popular and casual-leaning games; and a slew of new franchises from Sony's much-larger studio operation. The best case scenario won't manifest itself until Xbox 720, but there is an interim scenario that we've been trying out for size on a few people in the industry--it contains a theory that we think best explains the the current overall state of the industry--and once we have it nailed down, you, Dear Reader, will be the first to know."

Permalink: http://ncroal.talk.newsweek.com/default.asp?item=533168


Even with PS3 doing as poorly as it is now, MS still won't make a profit much less break even this generation with the 360. If Sony cuts the PS3 price later this year as rumored (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4967&Itemid=2), MS will have no choice but to do the same: just like they were forced to in early 2002. With PS2 and PSP hardware sales increasing, and PS2 hits like GOW2 and FFXII lining Sony's pockets, they can afford too.

But I think, as stated above, the main problem is software related. Nintendo has Pokemon, Mario, Metroid and other 1st party titles coming for the Wii. Sony has MGS4, GT4, Ratchett & Clank, Ninja Gaiden Sigma, Jak & Daxter, and others coming.

MS has Kane and Lynch, BioShock, Mass Effect, and others coming for the 360. These all look like great games but if Gears of War, a game hyped more than a year before its release didn't move 360's, how will any of these? I think that with the 360 MS will actually make fewer inroads to the mainstream gaming crowd than it did with the original Xbox. As stated above, even Halo 3 probably won't be enough to save MS (especially going against MGS4 in Sept. and a PS3 price cut in October).

(Oddly enough, I have the opposite problem with the Wii: I think that Nintendo is targetting the casual gamer crowd at the expense of the mainstream. I think that Wii sales will peak in early 2008 and then the technological wall/Nintendo software drought/Kiddie Image/3rd party abondonment will manifest itself all over again. But that's another thread altogether...:rolleyes: )

"The worst case scenario for Microsoft, then, is one in which the Xbox 360's bid for the mass market is blocked by the Wii for the next two to three years, at which point the aging and underpowered Wii gives way to a cheaper-than-it-is-now PS3 with a selection of AAA titles that's far wider than what the PS3 has at the moment; new installments of Playstation's own popular and casual-leaning games; and a slew of new franchises from Sony's much-larger studio operation.

Sorry, but I think that this is what's going to happen by mid to late 2008. The pressures only going to get worse as the Wii gains momentum and the PS3 killer apps come out along with a price drop. How many more billions is MS willing to keep hemorrhaging?

Discuss.

[PapaSmurf]

Good read. I don't feel as if the article was necessary pro Sony though. It seemed to me as if Nintendo will win the crown. My only problem with this article is that it focuses on winning with the mainstream. We on this board are hardcore gamers. Even if the 360 doesn't garner a true mass appeal, in terms of gaming consoles it's definitely the best thing to get and probably will be the best thing to get for a while at it's price.

...and then there's PC gaming, the only thing keeping me from buying a 360. Guess the article didn't take that into account.

[Gadfly2317]

(Oddly enough, I have the opposite problem with the Wii: I think that Nintendo is targetting the casual gamer crowd at the expense of the mainstream. That's just what the press is focusing on because it's an interesting story. Nintendo is going after new demographics, and actually succeeding. It makes great press to publish pictures of blue-hairs playing videogames.

But Zelda was there at launch, and just because Red Steel happened to suck, it was a third party launch exclusive that was allowed to be the first game unveiled. That says a LOT about the companies intents, if Nintendo was willing to step out of the limelight and let a 3rd party, non-casual, non-kiddy game take the stage first.

They are going for the whole enchilda. Casual gamers. New "non-gamers," old Nintendo fans, kids, mainstream AND hardcore. Look at how many hardcores here at VGR already own one. It'll take a bit for a better diversity of games to kick in, but the massive sales guarantee more third party support, and the sale of this thing veering away from just the Nintendo diehard Gamecube demographic means more gamers who will buy third party titles.

And this does relate to your thread, because the Wii will likely make the war between 360 and Ps3 that much more bloody, and that much more laden with red ink.

I think that Wii sales will peak in early 2008 and then the technological wall/Nintendo software drought/Kiddie Image/3rd party abondonment will manifest itself all over again. But that's another thread altogether... )
If you think about, the Wii has already "hit the technological wall" if you are talking about graphics. But its gameplay that's selling it now, and there aren't even hardly any games. There's a software drought NOW. You think early 2008 is the software drought? 2008 is when we're going to finally start seeing some REAL software. Early 2008 is going to be following on the heals of a massive xmas '07 Wii sales storm (xmas '07 is only 9 months off.) We're probably not going to see Animal Crossing and Super Smash Bros until '08, and third parties taken by surprise at the Wii success are now scrambling to get on board.

Early 2008 is a mere 18 months after launch; with software just rolling and at least 16 million owners of this new console and more polished, original software just beginning to roll in as well as the expansion of Wii channels and online. . . there will be no hitting a wall and dwindling third party support.

"The worst case scenario for Microsoft, then, is one in which the Xbox 360's bid for the mass market is blocked by the Wii for the next two to three years, at which point the aging and underpowered Wii gives way to a cheaper-than-it-is-now PS3
Your worst-case for Microsoft is the same worst-case I see for Ps3, too. The bid for the mass-market is blocked by the Wii, and also the growing popularity of handheld gaming. At some point the other systems will have price drops, but the Wii will have price drops too, and is in this race for at least 3 1/2 more years.

I do believe a lot of gamers, especially the majority who don't have super deep wallets, will be getting something besides their Ps2's and Wii's eventually, but it remains to be seen if they'll pick up the Ps3 or 360. We'll get a better idea in xmas '07 when Halo3 and GTA4 come out which of the two similar HD systems most mainstream gamers are going to opt for.

I believe whichever direction the second wave of ps3/360 adopters breaks at the end of '07 is how it'll break for the rest of the generation.

[Gamer From '78]

Thanks for posting this piece Zilla. While these are the same guys that ripped the PS3 a new a-hole and are doing so with the 360 now (and it seems-are planning on doing so with the Wii) there are too many factors in each article and too many variations of what "may" occur in the future.

1) The article doesn't discuss how the PS3 has failed to outsell the Xbox 360 or Nintendo Wii yet. Sony has ALWAYS outsold the competition on a month-to-month basis with very few exceptions. Especially considering the system just launched, there are plenty of units and the Wii was supply-constrained.

2) As has been proven in the past, many people wait for the "big one" that makes them HAVE TO HAVE a new system. NPD data shows a surge in Xbox 360 sales over the November-December period. Was this simply due to the holiday selling season? Did Gears of War's release have anything to do with the spike in sales? Good questions they don't cover.

3) While the article does briefly mention how the Xbox 360 is taking the role of 3rd party provider these days, it DOESN'T note that most of these 3rd party releases that Sony is losing HAVEN'T BEEN RELEASED YET. When Joe-Blow goes into Wally World and SESS Devil May Cry, Virtua Fighter 5, etc. on the 360-THEN we will see what the sales are like.

4) The article specificially mentions Grand Theft Auto. Does the average consumer who buys this game KNOW it's coming out on the 360 on day-one?

5) The article doesn't take the stance or opinions of developers into account. Regardless of brand-name, gamers will migrate to where the games are. If Sony continues to lose 3rd party titles to the Xbox 360 through September, a PS3 price-drop will be irrelevant for a system devoid of the games that gamers want.

6) The article ASSUMES that Metal Gear Solid 4 will make it's target release date. That's a big assumption. Let's hope so for Sony's sake.

7) The article flat-out says that Sony has a more impressive 1st party development group than Microsoft. I take that with a grain of salt. They are including Naughty Dog (2nd party) and Insomniac (3rd party) in this assumption. I don't see how you can include Sony exclusives that are unproven without giving Microsoft the same shake.

And finally, it is all irrelevant at this point. No matter which console proves to be the market leader when all is said and done, the Sony-dominance-train is over. We aren't going to be looking at 100 million PS3's to 20 million 360's and 20 million Wii's. And that's good for everyone whether you are an Xbot, Milk Drinker or Brownie Hound. :thumbsup:

[Mochan]

I too feel that Nintendo is sacrificing the hardcore gamer a bit too much in this race. Or maybe it's just that Nintendo has just forgotten how to capture the hardcore gamer and has no idea how to do it? They're doing great getting grandmas to play their new console but I wonder how many XBox and PS2 gamers have they converted?

One thing about the article that I want to talk about is that they are saying the 360 is still just stripmining hardcore gamers, and will totally fail as a mainstream console in the way the PS1 and PS2 did. Now they are saying the Wii will hedge the 360 away from such success while the PS3 bulks up its game library, and when the Wii eventually fades from memory from being technically weak, the PS3 then jumps in to win a coup.

That just sounds.... silly. I mean, the Wii is *already* the mainstream console of choice, no matter how crappy its graphics are I don't picture the people who are "mainstream" into it really caring about this, and what's more do they actually expect these people who bought Wiis to jump in and buy a PS3 once it gets cheaper? These grandmas? Somehow that doesn't seem right.

This also underlines something I noticed on the general charactersistics of the PS2 fanbase: they're not die hard gamers with loyalty by any stretch (we just need to look at our own Gamer 78 and Waco Kid to know that). Most of these people were mainstream gamers and they aren't adopting the PS3 right now, and won't be for a long time I would say. The majority of them haven't jumped onto the 360 either; where are they? It seems to me a good chunk of them are gaming on the PSP and the DS! I'm looking at the behavior of my friends who had PS2s and I notice today they have PSPs in their pockets, or want to have a PSP. I would wager that more of that 100M PS2 market base are twiddling their thumbs in front of their PCs, a few bought Wiis, but most of them are still playing on their PS2s -- let's face it even if PS2 game dev slowed to a crawl starting today, PS2 gamers still have a ton of games to play from the current existing library. I guess you could say Next Gen really did come too early, and it doesn't help that the HD "revolution" got thrown in with it. To be honest one of the reasons I haven't gotten either 360 or PS3 is because before I do, I want to get an HDTV first... I feel I am just wasting money getting either console without an HDTV. I'd imagine this sentiment is more popular with the average last gen gamer than we'd think.

I do feel though that the PS3 at the moment is the most balanced of the 3 consoles, whereas the 360 is farther on the side of the hardcore gamers and the Wii in the totally opposite direction. That means little though in the scheme of personal gamer's preferences, a gamer will buy what he wants and that is that. All this mainstream appeal talk is good for sales discussions and market dominance and all that, but in the end gamers like us will only care about the games we play, and truth be told most of us here are more on the "hardcore" than the not. That means most of us here will care about getting the 360 more than the Wii or the PS3, at this moment in time, considering that's where the games are at the moment.

Oh make no mistake the PS3 has its share of titles worth getting, the Wii as well to a lesser extent, but talking from a hardcore gamer perspective the 360 is the most obvious choice of the three to get as of now. That said... I'm not getting one. Gears isn't gonna move my butt and Kane and Lynch, Mass Effect and Bioshock won't either.... though I will be getting Bioshock for my PC.



I think the Wii will hit a wall as well, it's not just the tech wall and the kiddie image that will hit, while it will most definitely sell quite a lot, the thing is as I have said, the new market it has burgeoned will not be a hardcore market that buys games by the truckload like the XBox 360 market. It's a market that is going to buy a Wii, play Wii Sports and Wii Play contentedly for a year, then stop playing and maybe buy Wii Sports 2 when it comes out. The problem is that this market doesn't buy much software; not being prolific hardcore gamers they are perfectly happy to latch onto one title (or a few at best) to play over and over and over. I saw this behavior with my parents back in the 8-bit days -- my mom played nothing but Dr. Mario and she did so for about a year, my dad played Dr. Mario and Sky Destroyer, and nothing else. Not being true gamers at heart they just need one or two things as disctractions and they are perfectly happy with this for indefinite periods of time. My gf's parents showed similar leanings; her mom and dad still play Battle City (and only Battlecity) to this very day.

Nintendo is going to have to work hard to get this market to buy more games, and if they intend to spend their resources making games for this segment to encourage them to buy games, then there it is Nintendo will be sacrificing the hardcore gamer for this new casual market. I really, really don't like that.

But that said, the Wii has the shot at being the PS2 of this generation, make no mistake. Like I said above, I sure as hell don't think that "worst case scenario for the 360" is going to pass where the Wii hedges the 360 only to let the PS3 win the crown in the end. That's a little too rosy. What is more likely to happen is the Wii sells like crazy, software doesn't sell as much (hello PS2 where have I seen you before?) and you will get a lot of representation on the Wii for game titles. I doubt it'll be as diversified and strong as the PS2 though because let's face it the majority of game developers will want to make the really high tech, hardcore grade AAA games for the 360 and possibly the PS3. The Wii is going to receive some splash damage from that; we'll get a lot of games on it and many of them I'm sure will be worth playing, but the majority of the biggest AAA titles from 3rd parties will probably be on the 360 and PS3, whereas Wii's best titles will probably mostly be Nintendo in-house games.



Your worst-case for Microsoft is the same worst-case I see for Ps3, too. The bid for the mass-market is blocked by the Wii, and also the growing popularity of handheld gaming.

That's not the worst case I see for the PS3. The Wii blocks the PS3's mass-market bid? Heck, before the PS3 has to worry about the Wii, it has to worry about the 360 first. And the 360 doesn't even have any mass-market appeal. Suffice it to say, the PS3 isn't even in the running for mass market right now. Or conceivably for the next two years. That's why the Wii is selling so well now; it's the ONLY console that is targetting the mass market; neither the 360 nor especially the PS3 are anywhere near doing this.

The worst case for the PS3 is that the 360 drains all its exclusives and 99% of the games you get on the PS3 can be played on the 360, at comparable quality, and the 360 being cheaper wins by default as the console of choice for gamers. The Wii takes Sony's marketshare in Japan, the 360 dominates the US charts, and Europe learns the beauty of playing mobile games on Finnish Nokia phones rather than buying PS3s over the weekends.

Sony needs to do some mainstream handshaking, Little Big Planet is the first step towards that, Sony needs more stuff like that, stuff that MS probably will not want to get (I mean I applaud MS's effort to diversify its library, but Viva Pinata did not sell all too well), and yeah they need to build that library up until their pricing goes down enough to save them. Then the worst case scenario Level Up posted for the 360 can maybe come into play.

I do agree wtih Gadfly; the next wave of adopters is what will make or break this console war I feel, but the wave will probably head in either Sony's or MS's direction *at this point I am betting on the 360*

[Gamer From '78]

I too feel that Nintendo is sacrificing the hardcore gamer a bit too much in this race. Or maybe it's just that Nintendo has just forgotten how to capture the hardcore gamer and has no idea how to do it? They're doing great getting grandmas to play their new console but I wonder how many XBox and PS2 gamers have they converted?

One thing about the article that I want to talk about is that they are saying the 360 is still just stripmining hardcore gamers, and will totally fail as a mainstream console in the way the PS1 and PS2 did. Now they are saying the Wii will hedge the 360 away from such success while the PS3 bulks up its game library, and when the Wii eventually fades from memory from being technically weak, the PS3 then jumps in to win a coup.

That just sounds.... silly. I mean, the Wii is *already* the mainstream console of choice, no matter how crappy its graphics are I don't picture the people who are "mainstream" into it really caring about this, and what's more do they actually expect these people who bought Wiis to jump in and buy a PS3 once it gets cheaper? These grandmas? Somehow that doesn't seem right.

This also underlines something I noticed on the general charactersistics of the PS2 fanbase: they're not die hard gamers with loyalty by any stretch (we just need to look at our own Gamer 78 and Waco Kid to know that). Most of these people were mainstream gamers and they aren't adopting the PS3 right now, and won't be for a long time I would say. The majority of them haven't jumped onto the 360 either; where are they? It seems to me a good chunk of them are gaming on the PSP and the DS! I'm looking at the behavior of my friends who had PS2s and I notice today they have PSPs in their pockets, or want to have a PSP. I would wager that more of that 100M PS2 market base are twiddling their thumbs in front of their PCs, a few bought Wiis, but most of them are still playing on their PS2s -- let's face it even if PS2 game dev slowed to a crawl starting today, PS2 gamers still have a ton of games to play from the current existing library. I guess you could say Next Gen really did come too early, and it doesn't help that the HD "revolution" got thrown in with it. To be honest one of the reasons I haven't gotten either 360 or PS3 is because before I do, I want to get an HDTV first... I feel I am just wasting money getting either console without an HDTV. I'd imagine this sentiment is more popular with the average last gen gamer than we'd think.

I do feel though that the PS3 at the moment is the most balanced of the 3 consoles, whereas the 360 is farther on the side of the hardcore gamers and the Wii in the totally opposite direction. That means little though in the scheme of personal gamer's preferences, a gamer will buy what he wants and that is that. All this mainstream appeal talk is good for sales discussions and market dominance and all that, but in the end gamers like us will only care about the games we play, and truth be told most of us here are more on the "hardcore" than the not. That means most of us here will care about getting the 360 more than the Wii or the PS3, at this moment in time, considering that's where the games are at the moment.

Oh make no mistake the PS3 has its share of titles worth getting, the Wii as well to a lesser extent, but talking from a hardcore gamer perspective the 360 is the most obvious choice of the three to get as of now. That said... I'm not getting one. Gears isn't gonna move my butt and Kane and Lynch, Mass Effect and Bioshock won't either.... though I will be getting Bioshock for my PC.



I think the Wii will hit a wall as well, it's not just the tech wall and the kiddie image that will hit, while it will most definitely sell quite a lot, the thing is as I have said, the new market it has burgeoned will not be a hardcore market that buys games by the truckload like the XBox 360 market. It's a market that is going to buy a Wii, play Wii Sports and Wii Play contentedly for a year, then stop playing and maybe buy Wii Sports 2 when it comes out. The problem is that this market doesn't buy much software; not being prolific hardcore gamers they are perfectly happy to latch onto one title (or a few at best) to play over and over and over. I saw this behavior with my parents back in the 8-bit days -- my mom played nothing but Dr. Mario and she did so for about a year, my dad played Dr. Mario and Sky Destroyer, and nothing else. Not being true gamers at heart they just need one or two things as disctractions and they are perfectly happy with this for indefinite periods of time. My gf's parents showed similar leanings; her mom and dad still play Battle City (and only Battlecity) to this very day.

Nintendo is going to have to work hard to get this market to buy more games, and if they intend to spend their resources making games for this segment to encourage them to buy games, then there it is Nintendo will be sacrificing the hardcore gamer for this new casual market. I really, really don't like that.

But that said, the Wii has the shot at being the PS2 of this generation, make no mistake. Like I said above, I sure as hell don't think that "worst case scenario for the 360" is going to pass where the Wii hedges the 360 only to let the PS3 win the crown in the end. That's a little too rosy. What is more likely to happen is the Wii sells like crazy, software doesn't sell as much (hello PS2 where have I seen you before?) and you will get a lot of representation on the Wii for game titles. I doubt it'll be as diversified and strong as the PS2 though because let's face it the majority of game developers will want to make the really high tech, hardcore grade AAA games for the 360 and possibly the PS3. The Wii is going to receive some splash damage from that; we'll get a lot of games on it and many of them I'm sure will be worth playing, but the majority of the biggest AAA titles from 3rd parties will probably be on the 360 and PS3, whereas Wii's best titles will probably mostly be Nintendo in-house games.




That's not the worst case I see for the PS3. The Wii blocks the PS3's mass-market bid? Heck, before the PS3 has to worry about the Wii, it has to worry about the 360 first. And the 360 doesn't even have any mass-market appeal. Suffice it to say, the PS3 isn't even in the running for mass market right now. Or conceivably for the next two years. That's why the Wii is selling so well now; it's the ONLY console that is targetting the mass market; neither the 360 nor especially the PS3 are anywhere near doing this.

The worst case for the PS3 is that the 360 drains all its exclusives and 99% of the games you get on the PS3 can be played on the 360, at comparable quality, and the 360 being cheaper wins by default as the console of choice for gamers. The Wii takes Sony's marketshare in Japan, the 360 dominates the US charts, and Europe learns the beauty of playing mobile games on Finnish Nokia phones rather than buying PS3s over the weekends.

Sony needs to do some mainstream handshaking, Little Big Planet is the first step towards that, Sony needs more stuff like that, stuff that MS probably will not want to get (I mean I applaud MS's effort to diversify its library, but Viva Pinata did not sell all too well), and yeah they need to build that library up until their pricing goes down enough to save them. Then the worst case scenario Level Up posted for the 360 can maybe come into play.

I do agree wtih Gadfly; the next wave of adopters is what will make or break this console war I feel, but the wave will probably head in either Sony's or MS's direction *at this point I am betting on the 360*

I don't really think I could agree any more with you on your points Mochan. You are seeing things the way I do for the most part. A few things of note though:

With the unprecendented success of the Wii and the subsequent "scrambling" by 3rd parties to begin Wii development (as reported in EGM, the net and just about everywhere else), I think we will see a great number of exclusive games built around the Wii. Nintendo has always been profitable on hardware since day one. They aren't dependent on software sales to recoup hardware losses. So from day one, Nintendo has been rolling in the greenbacks with the hardware alone. I wonder, how much do you think they make off of each Wiimote and Nunchuck they sell?

The Wii has shed that "kiddie" image of the Gamecube. Let's be real about it: The Gamecube had ALOT of Mature-rated material on it. The entire Resident Evil series, Killer 7, P.N.03, Eternal Darkness and several more. And lets not forget the most excellent version of Metal Gear Solid-Twin Snakes! But regardless of the material, there is a stigma about playing these games on a purple purse (as the Gamecube was often described for it's Gucci handle). The Wii is this console generation's version of the iPod. It just exudes "cool." Now we have the mainstream, the kiddies and the GRANNIES playing Nintendo games!

So much BS about the "next gen" and the importance of high-def and graphics. I STILL look at many last-gen games-Resident Evil 4 for example-and think they look awesome. While there are improvements overall in graphics, I don't think the majority of the gaming public cares at this point which is why we are seeing an overall lack of interest in both the 360 and PS3. And yes, I DO believe there is an overall lack of interest.

Sony will suffer this generation. If Xbox 360 is "strip-mining" anything, it's the PS3's formerly exclusive franchises. From a technical standpoint and many links to many sites about the technical merrits of both the Xbox 360 and PS3-the 360 is for all intents & purposes JUST AS POWERFUL GRAPHICALLY as the PS3. That is the OVERALL CONSENSUS. Gamers are going to look at the disparity of cost between the two systems and pick the cheapest. Because let's face it, if I can buy an Xbox 360 and play Devil May Cry and Final Fantasy with the EXACT SAME GRAPHICS as the PS3 version, on a system that costs me $200 less (good luck finding a 20-gig PS3!), tha'ts what I am going to do.

Brand loyalty is out the window. Sony is trying to screw their fanbase up the rear and they are getting the backlash from it. Simple as that.

[theWacoKid]

MS isn't the problem for sony, its nintendo. They're getting destroyed in japan by little N.

The hw sales summary for the week of march 12 -18.

Hardware - This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
1. NDS - 121,630 | 108,631 | 1,719,595 | 15,725,274
2. WII - 67,070 | 44,495 | 915,139 | 1,834,782
3. PSP - 43,769 | 56,175 | 603,928 | 5,136,057
4. PS3 - 21,635 | 32,115 | 316,475 | 774,033
5. PS2 - 13,321 | 14,585 | 223,953 | 20,378,812
6. 360 - 2,910 | 3,333 | 71,632 | 336,334
7. GBA - 1,293 | 1,504 | 26,911 | 15,324,990
8. NGC - 367 | 240 | 5,039 | 4,174,507

Nintendo's lead has ballooned again with the wii back to outselling the ps3 by a 3 to 1 margin, oh, the irony. Sony should start called the ps3, the ps1/3 instead. Lifetime sales show the wii with well over a million unit lead over the ps3.

However, sony has even bigger problems, the ps2 is sinking fast. But, the problems don't end there. The top 50 breakdown shows the following.

NDS - 38
WII - 7
PS2 - 3
PSP - 1
PS3 - 1

Nintendo has 45 of the top 50 software spots. Total, utter domination. The only company hitting a wall has been sony, its like the sony juggernaut has hit a steel reinforced concrete wall at high speed. KABOOM!!

You wonder why japanese developers are jumping ship, why they're in full panic mode, why DMC4 has gone multiplatform. No real effin mystery there. And the only third party exclusives sony is clinging to are from japanese developers. But, even those are far from secure. If FXIII and MGS4 go mp, what then for sony and their image? YIKES!

Classic post by Zilla, hall of fame quote.

As stated above, even Halo 3 probably won't be enough to save MS (especially going against MGS4 in Sept. and a PS3 price cut in October).


I'm sorry, too fu#$ing funny. So, we're going to get a reprise of history where MGS3 destroyed Halo 2 back in november of 04. Whoa, wait a minute, it was halo 2 that destroyed MGS3. Record one day sales for a videogame, while MGS3 couldn't even crack 300k for the month. Yeah, the 360 needs to be saved from the likes of MGS4, that is assuming, its still an exclusive by the time it comes out, which won't be september. And the only company fearing a price cut is sony. The last thing sony wants to see is a $299 premium in time for the holidays along with Halo 3 and GTA4 releasing.

Thanks for the laugh, sony boy, that was a good one. Sony's days of domination are two things, done and done. It's over. Way too slow to respond to the runaway success of the ds lite. The ps3 is a premature product that addresses the needs of high end customers, but does very little to justify its price to the average gamer. Oh, wait, you're paying for a future proof product and oh, TEH potential. Gotcha!

According to jackie tretton, you're investing along with sony when you buy the ps3. Uh, .... sorry, jack, I don't invest in game consoles, they always go down in price and I can never seem to get back what I paid for them, hence, they tend to be bad investments.

The ps3 has now officially underwhelmed in three major territories. No launch day sellouts for the ps3 in europe. From what I'm reading, the ps3 has bombed hard in france. The UK is only so-so.

This post is classic SDF damage control. Throw negative attention the way of the 360 and ignore the mounting myraid problems confronting not only the ps3 but sony's entire gaming division that is the one currenty drowning in a sea of red ink.

[Gamer From '78]

MS isn't the problem for sony, its nintendo. They're getting destroyed in japan by little N.

The hw sales summary for the week of march 12 -18.

Hardware - This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
1. NDS - 121,630 | 108,631 | 1,719,595 | 15,725,274
2. WII - 67,070 | 44,495 | 915,139 | 1,834,782
3. PSP - 43,769 | 56,175 | 603,928 | 5,136,057
4. PS3 - 21,635 | 32,115 | 316,475 | 774,033
5. PS2 - 13,321 | 14,585 | 223,953 | 20,378,812
6. 360 - 2,910 | 3,333 | 71,632 | 336,334
7. GBA - 1,293 | 1,504 | 26,911 | 15,324,990
8. NGC - 367 | 240 | 5,039 | 4,174,507

Nintendo's lead has ballooned again with the wii back to outselling the ps3 by a 3 to 1 margin, oh, the irony. Sony should start called the ps3, the ps1/3 instead. Lifetime sales show the wii with well over a million unit lead over the ps3.

However, sony has even bigger problems, the ps2 is sinking fast. But, the problems don't end there. The top 50 breakdown shows the following.

NDS - 38
WII - 7
PS2 - 3
PSP - 1
PS3 - 1

Nintendo has 45 of the top 50 software spots. Total, utter domination. The only company hitting a wall has been sony, its like the sony juggernaut has hit a steel reinforced concrete wall at high speed. KABOOM!!

You wonder why japanese developers are jumping ship, why they're in full panic mode, why DMC4 has gone multiplatform. No real effin mystery there. And the only third party exclusives sony is clinging to are from japanese developers. But, even those are far from secure. If FXIII and MGS4 go mp, what then for sony and their image? YIKES!

Classic post by Zilla, hall of fame quote.

As stated above, even Halo 3 probably won't be enough to save MS (especially going against MGS4 in Sept. and a PS3 price cut in October).


I'm sorry, too fu#$ing funny. So, we're going to get a reprise of history where MGS3 destroyed Halo 2 back in november of 04. Whoa, wait a minute, it was halo 2 that destroyed MGS3. Record one day sales for a videogame, while MGS3 couldn't even crack 300k for the month. Yeah, the 360 needs to be saved from the likes of MGS4, that is assuming, its still an exclusive by the time it comes out, which won't be september. And the only company fearing a price cut is sony. The last thing sony wants to see is a $299 premium in time for the holidays along with Halo 3 and GTA4 releasing.

Thanks for the laugh, sony boy, that was a good one. Sony's days of domination are two things, done and done. It's over. Way too slow to respond to the runaway success of the ds lite. The ps3 is a premature product that addresses the needs of high end customers, but does very little to justify its price to the average gamer. Oh, wait, you're paying for a future proof product and oh, TEH potential. Gotcha!

According to jackie tretton, you're investing along with sony when you buy the ps3. Uh, .... sorry, jack, I don't invest in game consoles, they always go down in price and I can never seem to get back what I paid for them, hence, they tend to be bad investments.

The ps3 has now officially underwhelmed in three major territories. No launch day sellouts for the ps3 in europe. From what I'm reading, the ps3 has bombed hard in france. The UK is only so-so.

This post is classic SDF damage control. Throw negative attention the way of the 360 and ignore the mounting myraid problems confronting not only the ps3 but sony's entire gaming division that is the one currenty drowning in a sea of red ink.

The Wii is nothing but a success story. The fact that it's not just Japan, not just the US but Europe as well where the Wii dominates is something I didn't expect to see. I love the system, love the games I own and love being able to play all my Gamecube games on it.

The PS3 on the other hand is in deep doo-doo. In Japan, it gets smacked silly on a 3 to 1 sales ratio by the Wii. In the US, at least 2 to 1 sales with Wii being impossible to find. In the UK, PS3 just LAUNCHED and gamers are walking in asking if Wii's are in stock! It's sad.

I have to agree with the Halo 3 versus Metal Gear Solid 4 sentiment. Halo 2 slapped Snake Eater like it's b!otch. With three versions available, I see Halo 3 kicking major @$$ come release day. I never saw a line in the US for a GAME...but I did and personally STOOD in one when Halo 2 was released at midnight around the country. And I'm not talking a few hardcore, I'm talking a line from EB all the way to Sears at the other end of the friggin' mall! Same for Gamestop. And the Funcoland outside of the mall in the strip.

Hell, Halo 2 CONTINUES to sell after several years. How long has it been since Metal Gear Solid 3 was ranked on the charts? :cryin:

[ThaMaskedGamer]

Many things. Some of the points they raise have to be taken with a few grains of salt. There is an OVERRIDING reason why PS3 and 360 aren't selling as many CONSOLES at the RATE Nintendo is with the Wii. PRICE!

The price incremental over Wii is very high with the 360 and even higher with the PS3. The price incremental of the 360 over the XBOX is a good $150, plus the games cost more. This automatically means the adoption rates of 360 and PS3 won't be as fast as last generation.

But, the news is good for 360 because the system is SELLING a HUGE amount of software, much much faster rate than the Wii and killing PS3. Slowly and yes as both the PS3 and 360 drop prices, these systems will penetrate until PS2 and XBOX die off. But right now I believe MS has the least to worry about.

PS3 has to worry about increasing sales of the console AND SOFTWARE.

Wii has to worry about increasing sales of the software.

MS has to worry not as much about console sales and definitely NOT about selling software.

Here is another reason why 360 is not selling as fast as XBOX. No Halo yet!! XBOX launched with Halo. When Halo3 launches for 360, it will be a very big system seller. MS knows this, I think they are very happy to have 360 performing as well as it is without Halo3, at least nobody can claim Halo is the only hit on the system.

PS3 biggest console seller was definitely GTA, now it must share that game with 360, that game will definitely boost sales of PS3 and 360, but NOT Wii. Along with other big gun games like Resident Evil, Mass Effect, DMC, Gran Tourismo. Sony and MS have a lot of ammunition that will undoubtedly sell systems. Nintendo has already fired its biggest bullet, Zelda.

Finally remember Wii has expanded the games market by attracting non-traditional gamers. This is a double-edge sword. You might get people to try sushi one time, or maybe twice a year, or maybe 4 times a year. But getting people to eat sushi like they do McDonalds is hard. A lot of these older gamers and women into Wii simply will NOT by as much software as a gamer like myself. That hurts Wii. Well what hurts Wii is the reliance on that type of gamer coupled with the absence of gamers like myself. Its like Vanilla Ice at once point in time he was the hottest thing in rap because of white consumers, not rap fans, the rap game kept going but Vanilla Ice shot his load. We will see how long and how far Wii can go. I'm not concerned about 360 nor PS3 really, my only question there is which will end up on top and how long it will take Sony to get the ball rolling. But, in the interim, this is good news for Wii, but can they keep it going for a full lifecycle. MS pulled the plug on XBOX, it could have kept going. GC just died... MS won't be pulling the plug on 360, and we know Sony cannot afford to ditch the PS3. This is a long-term race. Right now i'd rather have MS' problems than Sony's or Nintendo's.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

How is that a bad thing? How the hell is that a bad thing? I'll bet Nintendo and Sony wish their consoles had the attach rate of 360. They would love to be strip-mining their consumers because it means their consumers like the GAMES!!!!!

This site(and this article now too) has always focused on hardware numbers but the software numbers are arguably more important. You don't think publishers stopped to wonder how the XBOX with the same installed base as the GC almost matched the volume on any given month as the PS2? That's the reason WHY these publishers are moving PC and PS3 titles over to XBOX and now 360!!

Every demographic is NOT the same. There is a reason why SPORTS is still on TV. It doesn't draw the kind of viewership as Desperate Housewifes or American Idol. But how many Lexus commercials do you see on American Idol compared to during a lowly NBA playoff game or a golf match? Advertisers know the young successful male 25-50 is the demographic that spends the most bling! Buys the most high dollar items, cars, electronics, etc. In this market, gaming, the coveted demographic is the XBOX gamer. They buy games like there is NO tomorrow and could careless about the cost of LIVE whilst others cry like the taxman cometh over $50 measily bucks a year.

That article or someone said if MS doesn't reach mass market 360 will fail. I don't think so. All MS has to do is control their cost structure and do as well or better than XBOX and they will be profitable. They can control their cost structure because they own ALL of the licenses to the guts of the 360. We all know they had NO control over the guts of the XBOX and that was the ONLY reason MS had to kill the project. Of course MS would like to do better and I believe they will. But I would gather than a price cut would hurt Sony much more than MS. You can't tell me Sony planned to cut the price this soon!

Sony is in a tough spot, they have to deal with the reality of NOT reaching mass market coupled with the fact their consumers don't buy a lot of software coupled with a HUGE increase in manufacturing cost. That is a big-azzed problem and i'd rather be in MS shoes and deal with the 3 red lights of death, than to deadbeat consumers who only buy a game every 3 months.

Oh and I completely agree, Halo v. Metalgear is a suckers bet. Hell its fantasy to even think we will see Solid Snake before '08. The combo of Halo3 and GTA4, not to mention other games is just gonna be major for 360 this fall. Plus, if I was MS, I'd do a price cut just to ensure I reach that critical mass.

[theWacoKid]

Here is another reason why 360 is not selling as fast as XBOX. No Halo yet!!
.

Oh, but it is, the official npd numbers show the 360 at 5,026,122 versus 4,962,540 units at the same point in their respective life cycles. The 360 at $400 has passed the xbox at $200.

[Tappy_Tibbons]

The fact of the matter is, if the Wii were widely available, it would be killing the PS2.

[Mochan]

I have to agree with Waco on this one, there's no way MGS4 is going to beat Halo 3 in terms of sales. In better circumstances it *might* have happened, but as it stands right now it's quite certain that Halo 3 is going sell more copies than the PS3 *hardware* has sold, what more MGS4.

To 78, I do think that the Wii will get its exclusives, my point is that its exclusives aren't going to be on the same level as exclusives we see for the 360 or the PS3, and that the best of these exclusives will be from Nintendo per se -- well that is a loaded statement because we can mean a lot of things by a game's "caliber" but like I said the best 3rd Party AAA titles will probably be on the 360, not the Wii. While Nintendo will pump out a few more Twilight Princesses these are not going to be on the level of Gears of War for instance in terms of graphical pizazz, and we already know the next really big game for the Wii is going to be Super Smash Brothers, and that's a totally different kind of game from the usual AAA exclusives we like to see on other platforms, and is a Nintendo game to boot. Twilight Princess itself was a game that took forever to make; Nintendo just isn't going to be making too many of these kinds of titles. It's 3rd Party support Nintendo needs and while they will likely be there thanks to the phenomenal Wii sales, I can't see them pouring big bucks into a big AAA exclusive for the Wii the way we are seeing developers sinking dough into games like Gears of War, MGS4, etc.

Many things. Some of the points they raise have to be taken with a few grains of salt. There is an OVERRIDING reason why PS3 and 360 aren't selling as many CONSOLES at the RATE Nintendo is with the Wii. PRICE!

And we're not just talking the sticker tag on the 360 or the PS3, that includes the price of an HDTV. Because if it were just that, the 360 is just $50US more expensive than a Wii (heck, in my country, the 360 tardpack is cheaper than the Wii).

[Zilla Man]

Thanks for posting this piece Zilla. While these are the same guys that ripped the PS3 a new a-hole and are doing so with the 360 now (and it seems-are planning on doing so with the Wii) there are too many factors in each article and too many variations of what "may" occur in the future.

1) The article doesn't discuss how the PS3 has failed to outsell the Xbox 360 or Nintendo Wii yet. Sony has ALWAYS outsold the competition on a month-to-month basis with very few exceptions. Especially considering the system just launched, there are plenty of units and the Wii was supply-constrained.

2) As has been proven in the past, many people wait for the "big one" that makes them HAVE TO HAVE a new system. NPD data shows a surge in Xbox 360 sales over the November-December period. Was this simply due to the holiday selling season? Did Gears of War's release have anything to do with the spike in sales? Good questions they don't cover.

3) While the article does briefly mention how the Xbox 360 is taking the role of 3rd party provider these days, it DOESN'T note that most of these 3rd party releases that Sony is losing HAVEN'T BEEN RELEASED YET. When Joe-Blow goes into Wally World and SESS Devil May Cry, Virtua Fighter 5, etc. on the 360-THEN we will see what the sales are like.

4) The article specificially mentions Grand Theft Auto. Does the average consumer who buys this game KNOW it's coming out on the 360 on day-one?

5) The article doesn't take the stance or opinions of developers into account. Regardless of brand-name, gamers will migrate to where the games are. If Sony continues to lose 3rd party titles to the Xbox 360 through September, a PS3 price-drop will be irrelevant for a system devoid of the games that gamers want.

6) The article ASSUMES that Metal Gear Solid 4 will make it's target release date. That's a big assumption. Let's hope so for Sony's sake.

7) The article flat-out says that Sony has a more impressive 1st party development group than Microsoft. I take that with a grain of salt. They are including Naughty Dog (2nd party) and Insomniac (3rd party) in this assumption. I don't see how you can include Sony exclusives that are unproven without giving Microsoft the same shake.

And finally, it is all irrelevant at this point. No matter which console proves to be the market leader when all is said and done, the Sony-dominance-train is over. We aren't going to be looking at 100 million PS3's to 20 million 360's and 20 million Wii's. And that's good for everyone whether you are an Xbot, Milk Drinker or Brownie Hound. :thumbsup:

Good points all, '78. Of course no one knows what's going to happen. These hguys just had an educated guess. But I thought there reasons were interesting as to why they came to the conclusion that they did.

You may also be right about them underestimating the appeal of MS 1st party games. If MS can combine Halo with a price drop this fall, it will send Sony scrambling. Especially if people feel that they can play GTA IV for cheaper along with Halo.

Yeah, I'm assuming MGS4 will be ready by September because that's what I heard but who knows. I do know one thing though: if Sony doesn't get MGS4 into Stores by November/Christmas season, then they're royally screwed. Especially if they don't drop the price on PS3. MS and Nintendo will make out like bandits and even though Sony will probably eventually catch up, they'll lose a huge market share. Even though PS2 is doing well, they need the boost for PS3.

Another reason I'm waiting until fall to pick up a PS3 is the return of Rumble. Not having that pissed me off but now that we know it's coming back (Kojima's putting it into MGS4) I'm willing to wait for the new controllers.

Strangely enough, I'm playing a lot of Xbox these days because the games are so cheap. But it still pisses me off that MS pulled the plug on it so soon. I also wish that they'd have equipped the 360 with a built in HD-DVD drive even if it meant paying close to PS3 prices. Why? Well, even though I prefer Blu-ray, if every 360 had HD-DVD built in, then the format race would be a lot closer. Even if the 360 just sold 5 - 6 million in its first year, it'd be enough to drag out the format war longer and put Sony more on the defensive. Which means that prices would have to drop sooner and Sony wouldn't be able to rest on its laurels knowing that Blu-ray would be the winning format (which it looks like is going to happen).

More than ever I think it's the 1st party games that are going to play a huge part in this generation's console wars. It looks like there'll be more multi-plat franchises this time around. (I also agree with Mochan that that will be the Wii's Achille's heal.) So that means that the Halo's, Metal Gears, and Mario's will be more important than ever.

I do agree that this generation's console race will be more balanced than last -- and like you said, that's a good thing for all us gamers.:thumbsup:

[Gamer From '78]

Good points all, '78. Of course no one knows what's going to happen. These hguys just had an educated guess. But I thought there reasons were interesting as to why they came to the conclusion that they did.

You may also be right about them underestimating the appeal of MS 1st party games. If MS can combine Halo with a price drop this fall, it will send Sony scrambling. Especially if people feel that they can play GTA IV for cheaper along with Halo.

Yeah, I'm assuming MGS4 will be ready by September because that's what I heard but who knows. I do know one thing though: if Sony doesn't get MGS4 into Stores by November/Christmas season, then they're royally screwed. Especially if they don't drop the price on PS3. MS and Nintendo will make out like bandits and even though Sony will probably eventually catch up, they'll lose a huge market share. Even though PS2 is doing well, they need the boost for PS3.

Another reason I'm waiting until fall to pick up a PS3 is the return of Rumble. Not having that pissed me off but now that we know it's coming back (Kojima's putting it into MGS4) I'm willing to wait for the new controllers.

Strangely enough, I'm playing a lot of Xbox these days because the games are so cheap. But it still pisses me off that MS pulled the plug on it so soon. I also wish that they'd have equipped the 360 with a built in HD-DVD drive even if it meant paying close to PS3 prices. Why? Well, even though I prefer Blu-ray, if every 360 had HD-DVD built in, then the format race would be a lot closer. Even if the 360 just sold 5 - 6 million in its first year, it'd be enough to drag out the format war longer and put Sony more on the defensive. Which means that prices would have to drop sooner and Sony wouldn't be able to rest on its laurels knowing that Blu-ray would be the winning format (which it looks like is going to happen).

More than ever I think it's the 1st party games that are going to play a huge part in this generation's console wars. It looks like there'll be more multi-plat franchises this time around. (I also agree with Mochan that that will be the Wii's Achille's heal.) So that means that the Halo's, Metal Gears, and Mario's will be more important than ever.

I do agree that this generation's console race will be more balanced than last -- and like you said, that's a good thing for all us gamers.:thumbsup:

Speaking on 1st party Microsoft titles, Forza was a game that took my by surprise. Like I discussed in another thread, I always loved Gran Turismo from the 1st game. I thought it was the be-all, end-all of racing sims. And I remember laughing when Forza was announced and calling it another "Sega GT." But in the end, it was more or less universally praised as better than Gran Turismo 4. That really took me by surprise. Gears of War (which I think everyone is tired of hearing about) is a co-developed game released by Microsoft Game Studios. I blew everyone's perceptions of what a shooter could be away and proved that the Xbox 360 IS a graphical powerhouse. And of course, Halo 3.

I know that alot of talk has been about Metal Gear Solid 4. And I DO want this game personally as I own ALL Metal Gear games going back to the NES (and even the quasi-US-only-sequel Snake's Revenge). But alot of the hype that surrounded Metal Gear Solid 2 was the graphics. It was lightyears ahead of anything we saw at that time. Not so much with Metal Gear Solid 4-which looks good, but doesn't pack that oomph like #2 did back in the day. Also, I believe that Metal Gear's reputation was tarnished after the whole "Raiden backlash" from MGS2. Snake Eater didn't sell as well as Sons of Liberty and I think alot of people were just "underwhelmed" by it. Wost case: Metal Gear 4 sells to the already established PS3 crowd but fails to move units. Something which Gears of War has been criticized for.

I think that in general, there is alot of gamers playing the waiting-game on the next gen. Aside from the success story that is the Wii, Xbox 360 is moving along at roughly the same pace as the original Xbox and the PS3-which every industy analyst thought would sell bucketloads-is crawling along as well right alongside Xbox 360. There just doesn't seem to be the demand for games that we saw back in 2001 when PS2, Xbox and Gamecube were all competing.

Taking rumble out of the PS3 controllers IMO sucked. Give me rumble! I wouldn't even game on a Wavebird for a longtime because it's lack of force feedback.

I know where you are at playing the "old cheapies." I've been hording up classics of the last gen. Gamecube, Xbox and PS2 games are easy to find. Hell, I picked up Onimusha 1-3 (all used but mint) for under $15. The Devil May Cry 3-pack was only $24. And hell, Metal Gear Solid 2 Substance is not readily available for a much more reasonable price in the $30 range rather than the $100+ it was going for a year ago. :thumbsup: