Through a Glass, Darkly

[Wan-Fu]

Boy is it ever fun to talk about video game consoles. We are all grown men who cant give up this childhood habit, and I doubt I ever will. However, sometimes we don't take time to see the forest for the trees. What I mean is that we don't talk about the big picture enough.

I have no insider information, and this is strictly armchair quarterbacking fodder, but this is how I see things Microsoft v. Sony

1. Early 360 release has screwed Sony royally.

That sounds fanboyish, but not intentionally. What I mean is that clearly, Sony did not want to launch the ps3 this early. No effin way. Without Microsoft forcing their hand by the early release of the 360, Sony would have held off at least another year, if not longer. They make far too much money off the ps2, and the ps2 has not even reached its full potential in the market because it still has not reached its magical 99 dollar pricepoint. The ps3's introduction into the marketplace will nullify the profit Sony makes off the ps2, and presumably the psp.

The ps3 just ain't ready. No scaler chip, Blu-Ray playback doesn't like 720p, the unified online infrastructure is once again half-assed, there are issues with wonky bluetooth controllers, there aren't enough blue diodes to make this frickin console available, and in general, the ps3 just doesn't feel, well, finished. Its like a pizza that needs 5 more minutes in the oven, or a baby that just couldn't wait the full 9 months to develop. As an owner of sony consoles in the past, I don't want to see them fail, but the ps3 launch has been a full on trainwreck in slow motion. The devs needed more time to show off the power of the console- to show that it is indeed is more powerful than the 360. When the more powerful xbox launched, Halo and DOA laid the graphic smackdown. It was obvious the machine was far more powerful than the ps2. With the ps3, this has not happened. Not only have they not bested the 360's graphics, for cryin out loud, they haven't even matched the 360's best game- Gears. This is freakin pitiful for a 600 dollar machine.

2. Microsoft about to ps2 the ps3 with pricing, and Sony takes xbox 1 loss leader approach.

Microsoft has copied and pasted the ps2's schtick. In other words, with no standard hdd in every console, they are making money off the unit already, and are making TONS of money off peripherals (and live). This means a price drop cometh. Fall 07 will be the kiss of death for the ps3. $199 core+availability+GTA+Halo3= game freakin over. How can anybody see it any other way? By the time Halo 3 drops and Gta drops, there will be at least 6-7 million 360's in the us alone, and maybe even more. Rockstar is not about to spend extra millions coding to the metal for the ps3, the games will no doubt look identical. I mean, even the build quality of the 360 is as shoddy as the ps2.

3. Its the games, stupid.

The 360's 07 lineup is absolutely rock f'in solid, and they are introducing a lot of original ip's. Alan Wake, Bioshock, Lost Planet, Mass Effect, the list goes on for days. Not only that, but what argument is there to make anything ps3 exclusive from a third party perspective unless Sony ponies up the cash? How do you think Insomniac feels about Resistance numbers? Obviously the game will still sell, but the older it gets, the less attention it will receive. It takes a game of Halo's caliber to sell consistently over the lifespan of a console, and while resistance is a fine, fine game, it ain't no Halo, and it ain't even a Gears of War.

4. The Old Grey Mare Just Ain't What She Used to Be

Speaking of exclusives, the games that Sony will likely keep exclusive dont sell as much as they used to. In other words, the tekkens, final fantasies, mgs's and even Grand Turismo do not pack the sales punch they used to. Gears (a new ip) has outsold the heralded final fantasy 12, at least in the US. Not even the most diehard xbot would have seen that coming. No Way. MGS 3 had price cuts quicker than Michael Vick, GT4 is by far and away the worst selling GT, etc, etc.

5. Blu-Ray Blues

Gentleman, much of America replaced their entire VHS collection with DVD's. It ain't happenin again. No way, no how will people, en masse, embrace Blu Ray like original DVD's. Who can afford to do that again? For the second time in what ten-12 years, people are supposed to rebuild their entire movie collection, at thirty dollars a pop, and you need an expensive new television (1080p native) to enjoy the full experience? N***A please, who can afford this? I mean, they might buy a big budget action flick here and there, or some sci-fi stuff, but seriously, hidef doesn't do a damn thing for fried green tomatoes or hitch, and it can't make the writing or acting any better. I sure as hell wouldn't buy anything but the blockbuster stuff on blu-ray.

6. Price

Too expensive, way too expensive. And I am talking about the 360's price. Nuff said

7. Fin

[NEO-360]

5. Blu-Ray Blues

Gentleman, much of America replaced their entire VHS collection with DVD's. It ain't happenin again. No way, no how will people, en masse, embrace Blu Ray like original DVD's. Who can afford to do that again? For the second time in what ten-12 years, people are supposed to rebuild their entire movie collection, at thirty dollars a pop, and you need an expensive new television (1080p native) to enjoy the full experience? N***A please, who can afford this? I mean, they might buy a big budget action flick here and there, or some sci-fi stuff, but seriously, hidef doesn't do a damn thing for fried green tomatoes or hitch, and it can't make the writing or acting any better. I sure as hell wouldn't buy anything but the blockbuster stuff on blu-ray.

6. Price
Too expensive, way too expensive. And I am talking about the 360's price. Nuff said



I agree that Blu-ray to me isnt really anything special IMO. Not at all. More disc space and faster load times. Other than that why should most of us push our regular DVD players aside for this? Not me. Too expensive for my tastes indeed. Blu-ray isnt going to go over for quite a while until they come down heavily on those prices.

And as far the 360's price being too much Wan-fu? Sorry but um the PS3 takes the crown for most expensive console at $599 a pop. The 360 is at least $200 dollars less than that.:cool:

[Wan-Fu]

I agree that Blu-ray to me isnt really anything special IMO. Not at all. More disc space and faster load times. Other than that why should most of us push our regular DVD players aside for this? Not me. Too expensive for my tastes indeed. Blu-ray isnt going to go over for quite a while until they come down heavily on those prices.

And as far the 360's price being too much Wan-fu? Sorry but um the PS3 takes the crown for most expensive console at $599 a pop. The 360 is at least $200 dollars less than that.:cool:

That was my point..the 360 is too damn expensive in my opinion, so the ps3 is out-of-the-question. I am a single man with no kids and a decent job. I blow money 'cause there's no wife to stop me. 600 bucks makes me absolutely cringe, you can buy a car, or a half pound of that sticky, smelly dank:blush2:

[Mochan]

What's a dank?

[Wan-Fu]

What's a dank?

Weed:thumbsup:

[Cuddly Knife]

What's a dank?! Mochan, you're all right.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

Great post. Most of this has been said but it is even more true than before as we go along. I must say though Sony ain't dead. They are on life-support, but you can't call it game over without realizing how absolutely loyal they are. Plus it still remains to be seen what the PS3 can scale up to. It is funny because at one point I thought if anything would save the PS3 it could be Bluray, it turns out Bluray is the one thing killing the PS3. So maybe the games will save it. They better hurry up though. Personally I think waiting till March is way too long!

[Glockstar]

*snip*

Hey, it's about time you posted something! I see you lurking all the time. With my fingers crossed all the while, hoping that you'll join in.

But now... this? This long post? Oy! Gimme a couple of days to read and digest it, eh? :p

[Wan-Fu]

Great post. Most of this has been said but it is even more true than before as we go along. I must say though Sony ain't dead. They are on life-support, but you can't call it game over without realizing how absolutely loyal they are. Plus it still remains to be seen what the PS3 can scale up to. It is funny because at one point I thought if anything would save the PS3 it could be Bluray, it turns out Bluray is the one thing killing the PS3. So maybe the games will save it. They better hurry up though. Personally I think waiting till March is way too long!


GTA4 HALO3
199 US Dollars=Rape Time.

I am not a guy given to hyperbole, but if this scenario comes to pass, what on earth can stop it? These are the two most popular North American franchises. I sure made fun of MS's Tard Pack when it came out, I was mad as hell that all 360's did not come with a hard drive. Even now, everytime I play O load area B load area L load area I load area V load area I load area O load area N load area, I get pissed off.

But when these two games hit at about the same time, the much-maligned Tard pack is going to crush everything in it path. I don't even think MS will have enough Tard Packs available, they will sell so fast, and if the wii still has any momentum by next fall, it will get sucked into the trey-sexy's tard pack killcrazy rampage.

You are right that most of that has been said in one way or another, but I just wanted to put it in one post to provide scale. Mark my words: Blu-Ray is Sony's White Whale, and to quote Picard quoting Moby Dick, "And he piled upon the whale's white hump the sum of all the rage and hate felt by his whole race. If his chest had been a cannon he would have shot his heart upon it."

Sony has shot its heart, and bet the farm on Blu-Ray. I just don't see how its going to succeed, but then again, I am not getting paid millions of dollars to make those kind of decisions:(

[Wan-Fu]

Hey, it's about time you posted something! I see you lurking all the time. With my fingers crossed all the while, hoping that you'll join in.

But now... this? This long post? Oy! Gimme a couple of days to read and digest it, eh? :p

Day to day I just dont have the energy, Im actually an editor. I write a lot, and read other people's writing all the time. I get sick of writing almost every day! I do love this little corner of the System Wars universe. Its like Goldilocks porridge- just right! Not too busy, not too slow..just my speed. I will probably try and post more though. I need a good gears co-op partner.

sorry bout the long-ass post mane, once I start writing, its hard to stop. I am many things, but brief ain't one of em.

[ilnadmy]

The one thing Sony has going for them that Microsoft would totally kill to have is brand loyalty. People who have had a PSOne and a PS2 will definitely be getting a PS3. I don't care how expensive it is, Sony has created a loyal fanbase and kept them there with tremendous support for its systems. Microsoft, on the other hand, has totally alienated many of its consumers after the whole Xbox early-death fiasco. I got an Xbox 2 years ago, figuring it still had a few years left in it. A year later they kill it off. WTF? The PS2 and the GC, on the other hand, still had games coming out for their fanbase.

I wouldn't be surprised if many people buy a PS3 and a Wii. Those companies know how to treat their customers. Microsoft is still learning.

[Cuddly Knife]

Well, I do love my Gears co-op, and am fairly decent at this game. I've even earned all of the Dom achieves, so if you want some points for Dom also, I'm your guy. Unless you're looking for someone who's a yapper, because I'm more quiet than talky.

Also, I've said it before, and I'm saying it again, the HDD has nothing to do with load times. Gears of War, the best game graphically/intensity and in pretty much every other way has no loading(unless you die and those types), neither does THP8 and a few other 360 games, where even though the PS3 is required to have the HDD in all systems, it still suffers from bad loading in their AAA games like Resistance.

the GC, on the other hand, still had games coming out for their fanbase. The XBOX actually has had more games coming out than the Game Cube. A lot more.

[ilnadmy]

I meant Nintendo releasing games for the GC and MS releasing games for the Xbox.

[NEO-360]

The one thing Sony has going for them that Microsoft would totally kill to have is brand loyalty. People who have had a PSOne and a PS2 will definitely be getting a PS3. I don't care how expensive it is, Sony has created a loyal fanbase and kept them there with tremendous support for its systems. Microsoft, on the other hand, has totally alienated many of its consumers after the whole Xbox early-death fiasco. I got an Xbox 2 years ago, figuring it still had a few years left in it. A year later they kill it off. WTF? The PS2 and the GC, on the other hand, still had games coming out for their fanbase.

I wouldn't be surprised if many people buy a PS3 and a Wii. Those companies know how to treat their customers. Microsoft is still learning.

Money talks and BS walks ilnadmy. Yes even though the PS3 is totally the most expensive console thats come along in a long time it'll be out there a lot longer than anything else because of the Sony name. However, that doesnt mean that Sony can just sit on cruise control with the PS3 though. The PS3 still has to prove itself as a bonafied gaming machine.

Because to be honest I've seen more people buying PS2 games than PS3 games. And these are in fact PS3 owners. Regardless of how loyal Sony fans are its the PS3 that should be getting their attention more than the PS2.

But as of now its MS and Nintendo thats selling more software and hardware than Sony right now as far as the next gen war is concerned. This is an area that needs to be leveled off before it gets to a point where Sony cant catch up.

So far its looking like MS has learned alot from 4 years ago. And thats why currently they are ahead with Xbox live and with the 360. Sony better get their heads out they arses and start cranking out AAA titles fast before they find themselves deep in the mediocre abyss. And nobody wants to be there.

[Gadfly2317]

Wan-Fu. . .superb post; sure, we're all arm-chair quarterbacking here, but you just built a pretty persuasive and rock solid case. A full $100 price cut seems a little unlikely, but regardless, at a MUCH lower cost and GTA5/Halo next fall, the $600 Ps3 faces a huge challenge. I don't think the 360/Ps3 battle will affect the Wii that much which has all its momentum from entirely different factors.

The one thing Sony has going for them that Microsoft would totally kill to have is brand loyalty. People who have had a PSOne and a PS2 will definitely be getting a PS3. I don't care how expensive it is, Sony has created a loyal fanbase and kept them there with tremendous support for its systems. The early systems are being sold to the rabids, but I don't know how "loyal" the "fanbase" really is.

My own experience as a fan, anyway, was HUGE fanatic over Ps1. I LOVED that system. Yet Ps2 came out, and I thought it sucked early on so I waited. . . and then when the other systems launched a year later graphics were unimpressive compared to GC and Xbox. But finally, I'm now a massive fan of both Ps2 and PsP, yet. . . .Ps3 sucks right now, and is pricey. Point is, I'm a hardcore game fan and a big fan of Sony's past efforts, but I'm not automatically shelling out for a Ps3 out of "loyalty." Ps2 didn't win me until certain games came out, which is pretty typical of most other gamers out there, especially the casuals who are the least "loyal" of all.

Your faith in "loyalty" saving the Ps3 is overstated. Sure, they've got consumer goodwill, but if 360 starts delivering an overall better gaming experience at a lesser price, that "loyalty" will start to dissipate.

Microsoft, on the other hand, has totally alienated many of its consumers after the whole Xbox early-death fiasco. I got an Xbox 2 years ago, figuring it still had a few years left in it. A year later they kill it off. WTF? I used to use this argument against the 360, too. But people have short memories, and though the early end to the Xbox was kind of a burn, most everyone who owned an Xbox, including me, have fond memories of many games, and if the 360's line-up gets strong enough, gamers will have a hard time resisting. Especially when the price is better on the 360.

I wouldn't be surprised if many people buy a PS3 and a Wii. Those companies know how to treat their customers. Microsoft is still learning. That's where you are wrong. The loyalty to the Sony consoles is solely on how much great gaming they've delivered. As far as "how they treat their customers" Sony lies all the time and is renowned for its horrid customer service and expensive time-consuming repairs.

Nintendo on the other hand. . .now THAT is a company that knows how to treat its customers, at least from a customer service stand point (I know they also screw their customers here and there with things like over-priced re-issues of old games.) For instance, my original GC died at 13 months, and the warranty was only for 12 months. Yet when I called Nintendo, got a real human on the phone, it was quick and easy, and they fixed it for free and sent it back within the week. Now THAT is how to treat a customer and earn brand "loyalty."

[DrunkenThumbmaster]

The one thing Sony has going for them that Microsoft would totally kill to have is brand loyalty. People who have had a PSOne and a PS2 will definitely be getting a PS3. I don't care how expensive it is, Sony has created a loyal fanbase and kept them there with tremendous support for its systems.

Don't really agree with this. Last gen MS was a new comer they didn't have any brand in this market yet. Sony was the main brand name, not quite the same situation this gen.

Now Sony fans really aren't sony fans per se especially in NA. They are Madden fans, they are GTA fans. Sony doesn't own either of those IP's in fact they don't own any of the PS2 most successful IP's. Gran Turismo as mentioned above has fallen severly in popularity. They are screwing themselves by making GOD of WAR 2 a PS2 game because despite how good it is it won't get the same press and excitement as next gen GOD of WAR game.

Wan-Fu mentioned the combination of GTA4 and Halo3 with a better price point next holiday. There is nothing Sony has that can compete unless something that's exlusive comes completely out of left field like GTA3 did but right now I don't see it.

[Cuddly Knife]

You're right, Thumbs. I wouldv'e eaten up a next-gen God of War. As it stands now, I'll be playing God of War 2 on my PS2, while tearing up the Wii60.

Motorstorm? Please. Paradise City, baby!!

Although Virtua Fighter 5 is simething nice.

[ilnadmy]

That's exactly it. God of War 2 is something for its PS2 owners. They aren't throwing them out the window and focusing solely on PS3, they're still supporting their old system. Say what you want about Sony, it knows how to treat its customers.

[Mochan]

In all fairness, MS does treat its XBox customers pretty well with the kind of game support they are rallying for the 360. But I really expect the same kind of game support from the PS3. If they fail on that, and MS delivers, then I convert to the 360, plain and simple. I have no illusions of brand loyalty when it comes to gaming hardware.

[ilnadmy]

I have no illusions of brand loyalty when it comes to gaming hardware.

I do, especially when MS will screw their consumers over for a few bucks. I'm not talking about support for a broken Xbox, I'm talking about forward-thinking support for the system.

[Cuddly Knife]

Did you pay full-price for your XBOX, il? You got it 2 years after it came out, right, so I'm guessing you got it for much lower than 300usd? Have you played all of the great games that the system has? Cheap games that can be bought for well, cheap. Plus, there are still games coming out or that have come out in the last couple of months that are exclusive to the system. Also, they are still releasing b/c updates for the 360. Why don't you badmouth Nintendo who did far worse to the Game Cube than MS did to the XBOX?

For some reason, that post seemed dumb. If it is, then disregard, because I'm feeling a bit off today. Bad cheesecake, methinks.

[NEO-360]

That's exactly it. God of War 2 is something for its PS2 owners. They aren't throwing them out the window and focusing solely on PS3, they're still supporting their old system. Say what you want about Sony, it knows how to treat its customers.

Yeah, I can tell Sony knows how to treat their customers by the way they abandoned those Hard drives they sent out over a year ago.:rolleyes:

[Glockstar]

sorry bout the long-ass post mane, once I start writing, its hard to stop. I am many things, but brief ain't one of em.

Well it's not so much that it's long per se, it's the content therein. That's a compliment. You make several good points there. But some I have to contend.

Also, if you're looking for a GOW partner, look no further. Add me to your friends list if you want - my GT's there for all to see.


Now then, let's get down to brass tax. One step at a time tho'; if I hit all of your points at once then my post would end up longer than yours. And I'm long winded as it is. (I know that - I'm trying to cut back. Honestly.)


1. Early 360 release has screwed Sony royally.

That sounds fanboyish, but not intentionally. What I mean is that clearly, Sony did not want to launch the ps3 this early. No effin way. Without Microsoft forcing their hand by the early release of the 360, Sony would have held off at least another year, if not longer. They make far too much money off the ps2, and the ps2 has not even reached its full potential in the market because it still has not reached its magical 99 dollar pricepoint. The ps3's introduction into the marketplace will nullify the profit Sony makes off the ps2, and presumably the psp.

The ps3 just ain't ready. No scaler chip, Blu-Ray playback doesn't like 720p, the unified online infrastructure is once again half-assed, there are issues with wonky bluetooth controllers, there aren't enough blue diodes to make this frickin console available, and in general, the ps3 just doesn't feel, well, finished. Its like a pizza that needs 5 more minutes in the oven, or a baby that just couldn't wait the full 9 months to develop. As an owner of sony consoles in the past, I don't want to see them fail, but the ps3 launch has been a full on trainwreck in slow motion. The devs needed more time to show off the power of the console- to show that it is indeed is more powerful than the 360. When the more powerful xbox launched, Halo and DOA laid the graphic smackdown. It was obvious the machine was far more powerful than the ps2. With the ps3, this has not happened. Not only have they not bested the 360's graphics, for cryin out loud, they haven't even matched the 360's best game- Gears. This is freakin pitiful for a 600 dollar machine.

You're wrong about Sony not wanting to get out their PS3 now. It is definitely time for it. And that's according to their thinking, and not just gamers'. And the fact that Blu-ray is a new media that Sony's trying to get off the ground right now makes the timing doubly important.

But while it needs to happen now - its not. This is a fracked up launch. In this you are correct. Sony is definitely behind. And they've been behind and having troubles (with both the Cell and blu-ray in particular) getting this thing going for almost a year now.

The 2-year poker game they were playing with Microsoft also didn't go as they planned. Their attempt to get MS to commit themselves to specific hardware early - by threatening to come out with their PS3 in March of '06, among other things - worked: the 360 does have older tech. But Sony overestimated their own technology, and they ended up not doing anything with the year they had on MS.

In fact, it's hurt them more than helped them, because MS ended up turning that year into a plus for MS. By shoring up support - even stealing some away from Sony; giving confidence to publishers and developers; and most of all by making some huge marketing moves. The 360 is out there, man; it is everywhere. The Xbox 360 now has a brand awareness that's approaching Playstation levels.

Regarding the power of the PS3... that is all fanboy hype. We knew that the PS3 would be a quantum leap beyond the PS2 - it had to be. But the PS2 itself was all hype. I don't even think it was as powerful as the Dreamcast - and it came out after the DC. I think most people here know, deep down, that there was never going to be much of a difference between the PS3 and 360. Only the most stubborn of Sony fanboys continue to spout such rubbish.

Meanwhile, MS didn't have to make that big of a jump from the Xbox to the 360; the tech wasn't their focus, and so they, or their fans, don't jaw about it. MS instead focused on development tools; expounding on Xbox Live and other multimedia things that they introduced with their first console; and on tons of other gaming knick-knacks. Stuff that's too numerous and hard to describe; stuff that you have to experience to believe. To MS, next-gen isn't just about technology and games, it's also about community and personalization. I didn't know what they were talking about at first, but I do now; I think they're on to something; I'm a believer. Achievements are next-gen. GamerScore is next-gen. Customization and displaying your own personality over the 'net is next-gen. Awesome graphics? Been there; done that.

You ever notice that the big thing that Sony brags about with their PS3 is the blu-ray part of it? 'Cause that's all they have to brag about. (I think even they're disenchanted with their Cell by now.) It's quite telling as to what exactly this machine is all about, I think.

I'm starting to rant now, aren't I? I'll end it there and hit upon your other points later, eh?

[Zilla Man]

Your faith in "loyalty" saving the Ps3 is overstated. Sure, they've got consumer goodwill, but if 360 starts delivering an overall better gaming experience at a lesser price, that "loyalty" will start to dissipate.

Actually, Gaddy, I think may be wrong. Case in point:

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4220&Itemid=2

On the eve of the PlayStation 3's launch, a new study from ABI Research outlines consumers' exceedingly strong loyalty to the PlayStation brand. Next-Gen spoke with ABI’s Michael Wolf about the results.

"On the eve of the PlayStation 3's launch, a new study from ABI Research outlines consumers' exceedingly strong loyalty to the PlayStation brand. Next-Gen spoke with ABI’s Michael Wolf about the results.
The study "Video Game End-User Perceptions: Entering the Next Generation" indicated that 60 percent of those who own a PS2 that are planning to buy a next-gen console are “likely” to buy a PS3. By comparison, 46 percent of GameCube owners who consider themselves in the market for a new console plan to buy a Wii, and 45 percent of original Xbox owners intend to buy an Xbox 360.

Although the Xbox brand lagged a full 15 percent behind PlayStation, research director Wolf said that there is a caveat, as the Xbox 360 was released a year ago. “Some of the demand [for the Xbox 360] may have been satiated earlier on. I would go so far to say that to some degree, that may have lowered the Xbox numbers a bit as well.”

Wolf further explained how the strength of the PlayStation brand will give Sony considerable leverage in the videogame console wars. “I just think that the PS2 has such a huge installed base that, even if the numbers were comparable in terms of intensity of loyalty, [the PlayStation brand] would probably have an advantage. But because [PlayStation brand loyalty] is even higher [than Xbox or Nintendo], I think Sony has a strong advantage going in.”

While PlayStation’s strong brand loyalty is inarguable, the $500-$600 price point for the PS3 is enough to stun even the most dedicated fan. Wolf said that this particular study focused primarily on brand loyalty rather than the acceptance of price points, but nevertheless noted, “I think one of the things that’s going to hurt Sony at least initially is the higher price point. But I think that within the first 18 months when they drop the price point—potentially—it could open the floodgates. Especially once the first six months of supply problems are resolved.”

Wolf made sure to note that consumers' actual behavior often differs from their intentions.

Also found in the study is that 18 percent of the 1,725 consumers surveyed were “likely” to buy a new game console, while 28 percent of active gamers (people who play videogames on any platform) had the same intention. Current console owners had a much higher interest in purchasing a next-gen console, as 55 percent of Xbox owners, 54 percent of GameCube owners and 42 percent of PS2 owners said they were likely to buy a new console.

“Not surprisingly, the interest in the new generation of consoles grows significantly among the already converted,” said Wolf in a statement. “While we think that the market of console owners will likely expand beyond its current bases, we believe that the market for the next one to two years will be driven by current console owners upgrading to the new generation.”

ABI Research's report comes from a Web-based survey "among a nationally-balanced and demographically-representative sample." The firm conducted the survey in October 2006."

And if PS3's are still flying of the shelves throughout 200 despite costing $600, then we'll know the survey was correct.

[Zilla Man]

1. Early 360 release has screwed Sony royally.

That sounds fanboyish, but not intentionally. What I mean is that clearly, Sony did not want to launch the ps3 this early. No effin way. Without Microsoft forcing their hand by the early release of the 360, Sony would have held off at least another year, if not longer. They make far too much money off the ps2, and the ps2 has not even reached its full potential in the market because it still has not reached its magical 99 dollar pricepoint. The ps3's introduction into the marketplace will nullify the profit Sony makes off the ps2, and presumably the psp.

Good to see you back, Wan-Fu. I know you're stating an opinion but I've got to point out that you're wrong. In fact, it's MS that was forced to rush their system out after only four years because they thought the reason they lost last time around was because they launched a year later than PS2 (they were wrong). Pulling the plug on Xbox without informing any of their 3rd parties and the whole b/c (Moore: "it's not important!/yes it is!") debacle is all the proof you need. If Sony was "pressured by MS" to launch early, they:

A) Would've either pulled the plug on the PS2 like MS did to the Xbox in it's most profitable year, or let the PS2 slowly die out like Nintendo did to the Cube.

B) Wouldn't have installed Blue Ray and made the HD optional like MS. Which would make for easier manufacturing and cheaper consoles, which would've resulted in a lower/more competitive PS3 price tag for the consumer.

If you go back and reread my "interviews" with guys from Sony and developers from the past E3' threads you'll see that they said that PS3 was going to launch in 2006. I'm sure you can find the postings. If you recall, I also told you back in my 2004 E3 posts that the 3rd parties were told to "program for a hard drive" parties and while MS had told them nothing; even as late as 2005!

But even putting that aside, analysts predicted that 2006 would be the year. And it makes sense if you read the articles/interviews with developers and the Sony execs. The PS3 launch was plagued by the same problems as the 360 launch - and the PS2 launch. Because when Sony, like MS, is having to manufacture new technology on a huge scale, you can expect a lot of problems - period.

2. Microsoft about to ps2 the ps3 with pricing, and Sony takes xbox 1 loss leader approach.

Microsoft has copied and pasted the ps2's schtick. In other words, with no standard hdd in every console, they are making money off the unit already, and are making TONS of money off peripherals (and live). This means a price drop cometh.

Wrong again.

I covered this in another thread. MS, by their own admission, won't be making a profit until 2008 at the earliest:

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=3963&Itemid=2

"Since Microsoft entered the console market in 2001, the Xbox strategy has been one of heavy investment, leading to significant losses in its home and entertainment division.

The losses are clear in recent financial reports. For fiscal year 2005, Microsoft’s game division posted a $485 million net loss. In fiscal 2006, ended June 30, 2006, the division lost $1.26 billion.

Although financial losses have been part of the Xbox’s tradition since its launch, Microsoft entertainment and devices president Robbie Bach said earlier this year that he expects that to change in the next couple of years. During the 2006 Microsoft Financial Analyst Meeting, he said that fiscal 2007 would again show losses for the company’s games business, but in fiscal 2008, he said that gaming would turn a profit, which would be a first for a full fiscal year."

The only companies making a profit from console sales are Nintendo with the Wii and Sony with the PS2 and PSP. The reason Sony is making profits on the PSP and PS2 while MS is still losing money on the original Xbox is simple: manufacturing.

Sony owns and runs factories that manufacture PS2/PSP parts and technology. In 2004, with the PS2 in the black they were able to R&D cheap miniaturization of that tech to make the PSP and the PS2 Slimline and pass the savings on to consumers in the form of a price cut.

MS, on the other hand, has to buy all their tech from other companies, and then pay the factory owners the manufacturing costs to churn out 360's.

If a price drop comes this soon it's because MS is panicking, not because they're making a profit. Remember the Xbox price drop in Spring of 2002? It hurt MS to do that but they had to as a response to Sony.

It's the games, stupid

You're right. It is the games. And if MS realized that, they would have done two things differently with the 360 than they did with the Xbox:

1) Had a Japanese RPG. a platformer, or anime game ready for the Japan 360 launch. Even if they'd had to wait a year later to launch the 360 in Japan with BLUE DRAGON, they would've done better. They knew from past experience that most Japanese gamers don't care for FPS, military sims, Western RPGs, or Xtreme sporst titles. Yet that's all they launched with over there.

2) Expand the library. Sony and Nintendo do sequels but they also do games that appeal beyond the guns, sports, teststerone crowd to the casual gamer. MS has yet to realize that the casual gamers are the ones who are going to give you most of your profits. They're still targeting the hardcore. That's all good and fine but it won't expand your user base.

The 360's 2007 line is absolutely rock f'in solid, and they are introducing a lot of original ip's. Alan Wake, Bioshock, Lost Planet, Mass Effect, the list goes on for days.

Yeah, and looks a lot like the Xbox list as far as genres go. :rolleyes: See above.

Not only that, but what argument is there to make anything ps3 exclusive from a third party perspective unless Sony ponies up the cash?

MS has only one major killer app (i.e. a game that people will buy 360's just to play) - Halo. Despite selling a million copies GoW hasn't boosted 360 sales like expected. So they need 3rd party games more than Sony or Nintendo.

Sony has several: MGS4, GTHD, Final Fantasy, Ratchet & Clank, as well as the new IP's like Lair.

Oh yeah, and then there's stuff like this:

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?op...=4274&Itemid=2

"Sony Computer Entertainment America communications boss David Karraker didn’t reveal exact unit sales numbers, but said that week-over-week ending November 26, PS2 hardware sales were up 116.5 percent and PSP sales were up 280.5 percent.

Similarly, PS2 first party software sales were up 120.6 percent and PSP software was up 167.9 percent."

You can't seem to understand that every PS2 sold helps Sony. Not just in terms of profit, but the fact that it exposes new gamers to franchises that will also be on the PS3.

The Sony Playstation userbase increases with each generation. Even if the PS3 only does half as well as the PS2 did, that's still a lot of $$$$$ for third parties.

Speaking of exclusives, the games that Sony will likely keep exclusive dont sell as much as they used to.

Really? Is that why Final Fantasy XII broke sales records? As for the other franchises

Gentleman, much of America replaced their entire VHS collection with DVD's. It ain't happenin again. No way, no how will people, en masse, embrace Blu Ray like original DVD's. Who can afford to do that again? For the second time in what ten-12 years, people are supposed to rebuild their entire movie collection, at thirty dollars a pop, and you need an expensive new television (1080p native) to enjoy the full experience? N***A please, who can afford this? I mean, they might buy a big budget action flick here and there, or some sci-fi stuff, but seriously, hidef doesn't do a damn thing for fried green tomatoes or hitch, and it can't make the writing or acting any better. I sure as hell wouldn't buy anything but the blockbuster stuff on blu-ray.


While I agree with you that Blu-Ray and HDD sales won't take off as fast as DVD, you're forgetting several important things.

1) Blu-Ray is b/c so the consumer isn't "forced" to upgrade anything.

2) As DVD is phased out in 2008, Blu-Ray is the only format where you'll be able to see Sony Studio franchises like SPIDERMAN, James Bond, and other franchises.

3) More studios support Blu-Ray than HDD.

4) The tech wall. MS should've at least made a Hi Def Drive in each 360. As it is now, they're already hitting the technological wall after only a year.:mad2: Blue Dragon is shipping on 5 DVD's. Resistance couldn't be done on the 360 due to lack of space. And that's a 1st generation PS3 game!

and the most important reason:

4) PS3 gives Blu-Ray a built in user base. If PS3 sells several million by March (and you know they will), that's several million Blu-Ray consumewrs as opposed less than a million HDD's. When film studios start seeing those numbers, guess who's format they're going to back?

[NEO-360]

Actually, Gaddy, I think may be wrong. Case in point:

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4220&Itemid=2

On the eve of the PlayStation 3's launch, a new study from ABI Research outlines consumers' exceedingly strong loyalty to the PlayStation brand. Next-Gen spoke with ABI’s Michael Wolf about the results.

"On the eve of the PlayStation 3's launch, a new study from ABI Research outlines consumers' exceedingly strong loyalty to the PlayStation brand. Next-Gen spoke with ABI’s Michael Wolf about the results.
The study "Video Game End-User Perceptions: Entering the Next Generation" indicated that 60 percent of those who own a PS2 that are planning to buy a next-gen console are “likely” to buy a PS3. By comparison, 46 percent of GameCube owners who consider themselves in the market for a new console plan to buy a Wii, and 45 percent of original Xbox owners intend to buy an Xbox 360.

Although the Xbox brand lagged a full 15 percent behind PlayStation, research director Wolf said that there is a caveat, as the Xbox 360 was released a year ago. “Some of the demand [for the Xbox 360] may have been satiated earlier on. I would go so far to say that to some degree, that may have lowered the Xbox numbers a bit as well.”

Wolf further explained how the strength of the PlayStation brand will give Sony considerable leverage in the videogame console wars. “I just think that the PS2 has such a huge installed base that, even if the numbers were comparable in terms of intensity of loyalty, [the PlayStation brand] would probably have an advantage. But because [PlayStation brand loyalty] is even higher [than Xbox or Nintendo], I think Sony has a strong advantage going in.”

While PlayStation’s strong brand loyalty is inarguable, the $500-$600 price point for the PS3 is enough to stun even the most dedicated fan. Wolf said that this particular study focused primarily on brand loyalty rather than the acceptance of price points, but nevertheless noted, “I think one of the things that’s going to hurt Sony at least initially is the higher price point. But I think that within the first 18 months when they drop the price point—potentially—it could open the floodgates. Especially once the first six months of supply problems are resolved.”

Wolf made sure to note that consumers' actual behavior often differs from their intentions.

Also found in the study is that 18 percent of the 1,725 consumers surveyed were “likely” to buy a new game console, while 28 percent of active gamers (people who play videogames on any platform) had the same intention. Current console owners had a much higher interest in purchasing a next-gen console, as 55 percent of Xbox owners, 54 percent of GameCube owners and 42 percent of PS2 owners said they were likely to buy a new console.

“Not surprisingly, the interest in the new generation of consoles grows significantly among the already converted,” said Wolf in a statement. “While we think that the market of console owners will likely expand beyond its current bases, we believe that the market for the next one to two years will be driven by current console owners upgrading to the new generation.”

ABI Research's report comes from a Web-based survey "among a nationally-balanced and demographically-representative sample." The firm conducted the survey in October 2006."

And if PS3's are still flying of the shelves throughout 200 despite costing $600, then we'll know the survey was correct.

Thats what I want to see right now is how many PS3's worldwide has been sold as of right now. All this other stuff is nothing but smoking mirriors, hot air, and alot of wishful thinking.:p

[tyrant619-uber]

thats what we uneducated folk call console propaganda! trust me when i say this, sony will do everything they can to hold back any information on worldwide sells for as long as they can to satisfy this massive hype their sony loyalist love to follow.

[NEO-360]

thats what we uneducated folk call console propaganda! trust me when i say this, sony will do everything they can to hold back any information on worldwide sells for as long as they can to satisfy this massive hype their sony loyalist love to follow.

Took the words right out of my mouth.:D Good post tyrant619-uber.:aureola:

[Gamer88]

Took the words right out of my mouth.:D Good post tyrant619-uber.:aureola:

is it really necessary to congratulate someone on a post?

does anyone else find his overuse of the smilies to be irritating?

and how does someone with the name neo360 (which sounds like a cult philosophy) justify himself in criticizing playstation loyalists?:aureola:

:thumbsup:


hooray, I'm going to give myself a pat on the back for making such a brillant post
:p

[NEO-360]

is it really necessary to congratulate someone on a post?

does anyone else find his overuse of the smilies to be irritating?

and how does someone with the name neo360 (which sounds like a cult philosophy) justify himself in criticizing playstation loyalists?:aureola:

:thumbsup:


hooray, I'm going to give myself a pat on the back for making such a brillant post
:p

If anyone finds my overusage of smilies to be irritating thats their problem. Not mine. And how is it that by having the name NEO-360 justifys myself on criticizing playstation loyalists? Simple.

I dont believe Sony is the best thing since sliced bread like the milk drinkers around here do. Believe it or not I actually like Sony. I just dont believe in their hype. And I always believed that a console is ONLY is as good as its games. Not just whats under the hood:

Give yourself a pat on the back kid. You did good. You did as good as The Bouncer did on the PS2. Simply brilliant:rolleyes:

Cant wait to see what you do for an craptacular encore.:D

[Gadfly2317]

If anyone finds my overusage of smilies to be irritating thats their problem. Not mine. By what logic did you come up with that? That's like saying if you poop your pants, and everyone in the room finds the smell offensive, that its THEIR problem, not YOURS. But you forget: It's still NEO-360 who has pooped his pants, not everyone else.

And how is it that by having the name NEO-360 justifys myself on criticizing playstation loyalists? Simple. Because its a total jackass name, and you'd realize why if you weren't completely batty. It's not as bad as the utterly retarded "Alpha Male" that you were pooping (or posting) under before, but still. . . .

Why do you refuse to listen to ANYONE or take any feedback? You realize that occasionally it's useful to improve oneself from the constructive feedback from others. When Gamer88 mentions that it's annoying that in every thread, there's Neo quoting entire posts and saying "good post". . . you don't have to spam the board congratulating every single post you like, i.e. what you just did with Trebor's post in the PsP thread.

We aren't wasting our time telling you this stuff because we hate you, it's just that we like this forum, and would like you to be a less irritating contributor. Can't you just listen to the feedback and consider acting on it?

Please show you understand what we are saying by NOT RESPONDING TO THIS POST.

Thanks

[Mochan]

is it really necessary to congratulate someone on a post?



Maybe he's fancying himself as some kind of cult leader for 360 Xbots. Leaders need to go out giving positive feedback to their minions. Either that or everyone just says things better than he does, that he realizes he can't contribute anything so instead just posts a glorified "Me too!" post.