The Xbox strategy over the coming year

[ilnadmy]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4276&Itemid=35

Interesting article that analyzes MS's position with the 360 and likely future strategies. A few quotes:

Ultimately, if Microsoft has to choose between market leadership and profitability, it will plump for profitability. Michael Pachter at Wedbush Morgan Securities says, “Notwithstanding Robbie's comments to the contrary, Microsoft is not a charity, and they won't cut price just because they can. Rather, I think Microsoft is a price taker, and they will cut only when Sony does.”

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that sales of Xbox 360 were nothing special over the summer. There is a genuine possibility that, once the Holiday passes, Xbox 360 will be selling in second or third place on a week-to-week basis. The company’s one-year lead gives it some leeway in this regard, but that won’t last forever.

But Frazer is sceptical about the argument that Microsoft is benefiting enormously from shortages of PS3 and Wii. She says, “While some analysts have predicted that 360 sales may benefit this holiday from a lack of PS3 or Wii availability, our study just doesn't support that notion. Content more than anything drives a hardware acquisition, so Gears of War would more likely drive a 360 purchase than would the lack of availability of a PS3 or Wii.”

There will be a strong argument to let the present price ride at least until Halo 3 has done its work, assuming that hardware sales do not tank in the last few months of Bungie’s gestation.

Anderson says, “Between the rumors of 60GB, or 100GB hard drives and the deployment of the Xbox Live Video Marketplace, there is every reason to believe a future Xbox 360 SKU will include a larger hard drive. Microsoft could keep the $399 premium price but include a larger drive (or perhaps a Halo bundle), and still be seen as price-competitive with the PS3. I don't think it's going to be as simple as take the existing SKUs and take $50 or $100 off the current price.”

Click the link and read the whole article, as it talks about a lot more than I'm quoting here.

A lot people here have assumed that since Microsoft was the first out of the gates, that it is now in a rosy position (including me, albeit to a lesser extent). This article though does show some problems that might crop up for MS down the line. Larger hard drives? Pressure to rake in profits (although Sony also has this problem)? A reinvention of Xbox Live? Banking on their one sure-fire game (Halo 3)? To all those people who are prophesizing the doom of Sony because of its PS3 gamble, maybe you should take a closer look at MS and how it will have to adapt in the future to remain competitive?

PS2 didn't have this problem last gen because there weren't quite as many factors (online play, hard drives, higher prices), so it benefitted from the early launch. In the 360's case, it may have to add all kinds of peripherals to be able to compete in the future. It already released a HD DVD player. The hard drive is seeming a little restrictive with MS's high def video download service, it's the only system with no wi-fi support, it's the only system where you have to pay to play online, and in the year it was on the market it hasn't developed any killer apps other than Gears of War (and maybe Dead Rising), not to mention it didn't sell like crazy as MS would have you believe.

Maybe the 360 is having just as many problems as the PS3 is having, only these problems are showing up at different points in the consoles' lifetimes?

[Cuddly Knife]

Sony would do the same for Halo if it was their own. It sure seems like they're doing it now with Killzone. Or maybe that's just the Killzone people.

5 million people bought Halo. 8 million people bought Halo 2. H3 will sell, and it will also sell systems.
and in the year it was on the market it hasn't developed any killer apps other than Gears of War (and maybe Dead Rising), not to mention it didn't sell like crazy as MS would have you believe.
Microsoft Xbox 360 games that have sold more than one million copies.

* Call of Duty 2 (1.4 million)
* Perfect Dark Zero (1 million)
* Saint's Row (1 million)
* Dead or Alive 4 (1 million)
* Gears of War (1 million)
And Gears has been out what, a month, if that?

[Dancer O_o]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4276&Itemid=35

Interesting article that analyzes MS's position with the 360 and likely future strategies. A few quotes:

Click the link and read the whole article, as it talks about a lot more than I'm quoting here.

A lot people here have assumed that since Microsoft was the first out of the gates, that it is now in a rosy position (including me, albeit to a lesser extent). This article though does show some problems that might crop up for MS down the line. Larger hard drives? Pressure to rake in profits (although Sony also has this problem)? A reinvention of Xbox Live? Banking on their one sure-fire game (Halo 3)? To all those people who are prophesizing the doom of Sony because of its PS3 gamble, maybe you should take a closer look at MS and how it will have to adapt in the future to remain competitive?

PS2 didn't have this problem last gen because there weren't quite as many factors (online play, hard drives, higher prices), so it benefitted from the early launch. In the 360's case, it may have to add all kinds of peripherals to be able to compete in the future. It already released a HD DVD player. The hard drive is seeming a little restrictive with MS's high def video download service, it's the only system with no wi-fi support, it's the only system where you have to pay to play online, and in the year it was on the market it hasn't developed any killer apps other than Gears of War (and maybe Dead Rising), not to mention it didn't sell like crazy as MS would have you believe.

Maybe the 360 is having just as many problems as the PS3 is having, only these problems are showing up at different points in the consoles' lifetimes?

Hmm, I don't know. I've waited until all the consoles were out and have come to see the 360 as the best choice for the moment. Without Live though?...who knows, probably I would've waited for PS3 if I didn't already have a Live account to immediately jump into. PC gamers think to pay to play online games is assinine (I did), after a while though you realize that 50 bones a year is nothing to pay for online HACK free, CHEAT free gaming in my opinion. The ranking system in some games even matches you up with similarly skilled players to keep it more even as well....this makes PC online gaming seem painful in some ways. Getting owned 25 times before you get even one lucky as hell kill kind of kills the joy for me lately, so PC gaming online is becoming something I do less and less. I hope the PS3 network incorporates these same Live abilities, if they do, and give it away for free then Sony will be tough as hell to beat in a few years.

[Mochan]

I hear the concerns over online PC gaming, it's true that being a newbie is a huge hurdle to overcome when going into the wild world of PC gaming. Live is probably a better environment to wean players into a game. My only real problem with Xbox Live is that, well, you need to play with a 360 gamepad. If MS had chosen to allow mice to be used on 360s, I'd have a 360 now shooting tangos in Vegas.

[ilnadmy]

Microsoft Xbox 360 games that have sold more than one million copies.

* Call of Duty 2 (1.4 million)
* Perfect Dark Zero (1 million)
* Saint's Row (1 million)
* Dead or Alive 4 (1 million)
* Gears of War (1 million)

COD2 is multiplat, and the rest...well, if you think Perfect Dark Zero was a good game, then I pity you. DOA4 and SR weren't console movers either. Just because they sell a lot doesn't mean they're killer apps. A killer app is a game that people will buy a console just to play. Apart from GOW, there aren't any games of that type on the 360.

[DrunkenThumbmaster]

COD2 is multiplat, and the rest...well, if you think Perfect Dark Zero was a good game, then I pity you. DOA4 and SR weren't console movers either. Just because they sell a lot doesn't mean they're killer apps. A killer app is a game that people will buy a console just to play. Apart from GOW, there aren't any games of that type on the 360.

I think that's a flawed theory. Most consumers aren't going to buy a console for one game. It has to have a decent amount of games. It's funny how most system sellars are always at launch or over the Holiday period. Times when people will buy more consoles anyway.

[ilnadmy]

Well I don't think that's entirely true. I bet you quite a few people bought an Xbox to play Halo or Halo 2. Same with the PS2 and MGS2 or FFX, or the GameCube with Zelda. Or the PC with all its games. :D

[Gadfly2317]

I think that's a flawed theory. Most consumers aren't going to buy a console for one game. It has to have a decent amount of games. It's funny how most system sellars are always at launch or over the Holiday period. Times when people will buy more consoles anyway.

Has anyone here bought a system for just one game? I mean, there's always that game that pushes you over the edge maybe.

On the other hand, I think I bought the Wii for no games (that are currently out), just out of curiosity regarding the hardware. I mean, there's Zelda, but its available on the 'cube too. Maybe I can change that opinion once an actual original title comes out (like Elebits) but for a system based on "innovation" to have nothing but a GC port and some mini-games at launch is pretty damned irritating. And what's on the horizon? Metroid and Mario. Always solid, and I'm looking forward to them. . . but again. WHAT THE HELL???

Maybe I'm being unrealistic. . . its taken the 360 awhile to look appealing, and the DS had an even worse start, but the Wii, as far as I can tell, has fewer "big upcoming titles" than the GC had when it launched. Big eye-candy titles like Resident Evil. Edgy concept horror like Eternal Darkness. Ground-breaking originality like Animal Crossing or Pikmin. I mean, those titles were all flaunted from Day 1 on the cube. What is being pushed on the Wii besides the Wii itself? Where is Miyamoto's big new idea? Where--at the very least--are the ressucitated franchises with screenshots and vague future release dates--I mean is there, or is there not, a Kid Icarus on the way? A Pilot Wings? And something new besides the gimmicky looking Project Hammer?

No, you don't buy a console for just one game, but for the life of me, I can't really figure out why the Wii is so freaking big. I know that is 180 turn because I've stated a lot of reasons why I thought it would be big, but on reflection, the Wii seems to be rocking for all the wrong reasons; if its all about games, I was way more excited about the early days of the 'cube than I am anything that's been announced for Wii so far. I mean, I'm looking at EA's Madden as one of the most innovative titles out for the Wii right now.

Again, maybe this is a premature backlash on my part, and just like the DS, it will take devs awhile to figure out what to do with the hardware, but if there are some titles up its sleave, I wish Nintendo would pull them out and show us their cards.

[Mochan]

PC must have a ton of killer apps... lots of games could force you to buy hardware to play them. The higher the sys requirements, the more probability of it being a killer app. :)

Oblivion was a killer app for me!

[DrunkenThumbmaster]

Has anyone here bought a system for just one game? I mean, there's always that game that pushes you over the edge maybe.

On the other hand, I think I bought the Wii for no games (that are currently out), just out of curiosity regarding the hardware. I mean, there's Zelda, but its available on the 'cube too. Maybe I can change that opinion once an actual original title comes out (like Elebits) but for a system based on "innovation" to have nothing but a GC port and some mini-games at launch is pretty damned irritating. And what's on the horizon? Metroid and Mario. Always solid, and I'm looking forward to them. . . but again. WHAT THE HELL???

Maybe I'm being unrealistic. . . its taken the 360 awhile to look appealing, and the DS had an even worse start, but the Wii, as far as I can tell, has fewer "big upcoming titles" than the GC had when it launched. Big eye-candy titles like Resident Evil. Edgy concept horror like Eternal Darkness. Ground-breaking originality like Animal Crossing or Pikmin. I mean, those titles were all flaunted from Day 1 on the cube. What is being pushed on the Wii besides the Wii itself? Where is Miyamoto's big new idea? Where--at the very least--are the ressucitated franchises with screenshots and vague future release dates--I mean is there, or is there not, a Kid Icarus on the way? A Pilot Wings? And something new besides the gimmicky looking Project Hammer?

No, you don't buy a console for just one game, but for the life of me, I can't really figure out why the Wii is so freaking big. I know that is 180 turn because I've stated a lot of reasons why I thought it would be big, but on reflection, the Wii seems to be rocking for all the wrong reasons; if its all about games, I was way more excited about the early days of the 'cube than I am anything that's been announced for Wii so far. I mean, I'm looking at EA's Madden as one of the most innovative titles out for the Wii right now.

Again, maybe this is a premature backlash on my part, and just like the DS, it will take devs awhile to figure out what to do with the hardware, but if there are some titles up its sleave, I wish Nintendo would pull them out and show us their cards.

Nintendo managed to type the cool it factor vein. So regardless of actual quality it's the it thing. If some one could tell you why they'd be the top marketing exec in the world.

[Dancer O_o]

I hear the concerns over online PC gaming, it's true that being a newbie is a huge hurdle to overcome when going into the wild world of PC gaming. Live is probably a better environment to wean players into a game. My only real problem with Xbox Live is that, well, you need to play with a 360 gamepad. If MS had chosen to allow mice to be used on 360s, I'd have a 360 now shooting tangos in Vegas.

I've been playing Counter Strike and ALL BF games since they were released back yonder and consider myself to be pretty damned good.....and I still get owned more often than not in those games. I play CS at nearly pro level, and still, luck sometimes is needed to just stay even.

Did nobody make a K&M converter for the 360 yet like they have for the original Xbox? Seems like a no-brainer to have one whipped up from some peripherals company unless the 360 somehow provents that as a possibility.

[Mochan]

Just tell me when it's there, and tell me where I can buy it, and tell me if it works. Then I'll buy it then and only then will I get an XBox 360.

[folken001]

Just tell me when it's there, and tell me where I can buy it, and tell me if it works. Then I'll buy it then and only then will I get an XBox 360.
What 360 games support K&M? I was under the impression most of them don't.

[T.Tashi]

Has anyone here bought a system for just one game? I mean, there's always that game that pushes you over the edge maybe.


I did. I bought the Dreamcast for Grandia 2 'cause the first Grandia is my most favoritess games on the PS1. But I only paid $80 for it including a VMU. Skies of Arcadia came out around the same time which made for a really nice bonus.

[PapaSmurf]

I did. I bought the Dreamcast for Grandia 2 'cause the first Grandia is my most favoritess games on the PS1. But I only paid $80 for it including a VMU. Skies of Arcadia came out around the same time which made for a really nice bonus.

I also bought a GC for one game. Rogue Squadron

[Mochan]

What 360 games support K&M? I was under the impression most of them don't.

No clue. I assumed the mouse support was completely unofficial and just mapped your mouse to the joystick axis. And that this somehow let you actually get faster acceleration on the cursor movement if you moved your mouse fast enough. That's how I thought it worked from the description of that old peripheral on the xbox. I'm assuming it doesn't need software to go out of its way to be compatible.

[Cuddly Knife]

I didn't buy an XBOX until Ninja Gaiden came out. Of course, if I had known what kind of game PDO was, I probably would've gotten it for that game instead.

[ilnadmy]

Yeah I bought an Xbox mainly for Fable. It wasn't what I expected in terms of "the greatest game ever", but it was still pretty damn entertaining.

[Zilla Man]

Has anyone here bought a system for just one game? I mean, there's always that game that pushes you over the edge maybe.

Heavens yes! Do you think Xbox would have done as well at launch if it weren't for Halo?

Maybe I'm being unrealistic. . . its taken the 360 awhile to look appealing, and the DS had an even worse start, but the Wii, as far as I can tell, has fewer "big upcoming titles" than the GC had when it launched. Big eye-candy titles like Resident Evil.[

Didn't you hear, Gaddy? Besides getting their own port of RE5, the Wii is getting it's own custom made Resident Evil game (I forget the title). :thumbsup:

Edgy concept horror like Eternal Darkness. Ground-breaking originality like Animal Crossing or Pikmin. I mean, those titles were all flaunted from Day 1 on the cube. What is being pushed on the Wii besides the Wii itself? Where is Miyamoto's big new idea? Where--at the very least--are the ressucitated franchises with screenshots and vague future release dates--I mean is there, or is there not, a Kid Icarus on the way? A Pilot Wings? And something new besides the gimmicky looking Project Hammer?[/

I expect Mario Galaxy to be very well received when it comes out next Spring. Much better than Super Mario Sunshine. It's a much better game, IMHO.

As for Myamoto, I'm sure he's cooking something up. Give him (and other developers) some time. Having to tie the Wii mote into the development process of a new game is most likely harder than working with new hardware. You've also got Smash Bros. and Metroid coming up. Despite my not wanting to get a Wii right away for $250, I still think it's 1st year library is head and shoulders above the 360's as far as fun titles go.

[Zilla Man]

PS2 didn't have this problem last gen because there weren't quite as many factors (online play, hard drives, higher prices), so it benefitted from the early launch. In the 360's case, it may have to add all kinds of peripherals to be able to compete in the future. It already released a HD DVD player. The hard drive is seeming a little restrictive with MS's high def video download service, it's the only system with no wi-fi support, it's the only system where you have to pay to play online, and in the year it was on the market it hasn't developed any killer apps other than Gears of War (and maybe Dead Rising), not to mention it didn't sell like crazy as MS would have you believe.

Maybe the 360 is having just as many problems as the PS3 is having, only these problems are showing up at different points in the consoles' lifetimes?[/QUOTE]

Goo post, Iladmy. The main problem is that, unlike Nintendo and Sony, MS is repeating the same mistakes that they did with the Xbox.

Despite leading in sales, Sony was always bothered by being the least powerful of the 3 consoles last generation. So they upped the ante this time out. Nintendo realized that they were facing diminishing returns with each hardware generation, so they went a different route.

MS panicked by killing the Xbox (at a time when it was at its peak in sales), launching early with overheating units and no killer app until after a year. But then MS shot themselves in the foot technology-wise. By releasing one unit without the harddrive, they severely limited what programmers could do with the machine. Putting a HDD as standard in the Xbox was a big wakeup call to Sony and Nintendo.

But the worse thing is that MS still hasn't figured out why Sony beat them last generation: the games. The hardware wars are won and lost on the casual gamers. The more diversity a console offers, the more attractive it is to the average consumer. Stuff like Halo 3 and Mass Effect are fine but it's still preaching to the converted. Blue Dragon looks good but it contains everything the average macho Xbox fan claims to hate JRPG elements, cute characters, etc.

And that's not all. It seems that the 350 will not meet it's goal 10 million units sold by the end of 2006:

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4343&Itemid=2

"Xbox 360 unit sales topped a minimum of 500K units in the month, probably more, with 200K in Black Friday week. Retailers attributed the increase to strong sales of Gears of War and “chronic press coverage” of supply constraints on PS3. Microsoft is now on track to sell through about 4.25 million units in the US in calendar 2006 with an installed base of around 5 million units."

Sorry but with Wii and PS3 in full swing by March of 2007, things will only get worse for MS. Halo 3 will help but I can't help think that when Super Mario Galaxy, Lair, and other killer apps come out for those systems, the MS tank will be starting to run dry. And hiiting the technological wall do to either no or not a large enough HDD will make it even worse.

[ilnadmy]

I wouldn't put it below MS to release larger HD's in the future, or make them part of future systems, thus screwing over everyone who supported their system early on. This kind of short-sighted thinking, as well as piss-poor customer support, is exactly why I would never buy another MS console unless, by some weird miracle, it turned out to be the market leader and got the same genres that Sony controls.

I mean why buy a console that, in a few years, might start to show severe limitations due to bad design decisions? Why take the chance?

[Zilla Man]

I wouldn't put it below MS to release larger HD's in the future, or make them part of future systems, thus screwing over everyone who supported their system early on. This kind of short-sighted thinking, as well as piss-poor customer support, is exactly why I would never buy another MS console unless, by some weird miracle, it turned out to be the market leader and got the same genres that Sony controls.

Exactly!

While I don't regret buying my Xbox (got the Halo green console), it could never replace my PS2. There are simply too many franchises and diversity that I enjoy i

I mean why buy a console that, in a few years, might start to show severe limitations due to bad design decisions? Why take the chance?

The way MS pulled the plug on Xbox was disgusting. :mad2: A friend of mine was working for MS and warned me about it. But when she also told me at E3 2005 that the b/c with the 360 hadn't been decided yet, I knew it was trouble.

I still play a lot of PS1 games, so b/c is a big deal for me. Since I like a lot of non-mainstream games on my Xbox, the b/c debacle hurts even more. Not to mention the fact that MS screwed over 360 owners by not giving each unit a HDD and trumpeting an old format (DVD) as "next-generation". :rolleyes: Cheap asses couldn't even put an Hi Def Drive as the media format.

10 to one that MS either brings out a new console in 2008 or starts manufacturing a "more advanced" 360 with a larger Disk Drive and a Hi Def reader as the new format.

[Gadfly2317]

I wouldn't put it below MS to release larger HD's in the future, or make them part of future systems, thus screwing over everyone who supported their system early on.

It doesn't seem like screwing over early adopters. It is usually the early adopters who are the enthusiasts who'd be glad to jump on a new-and-improved version. Like the DS Lite. . . I bought the DS day 1 and was GLAD to trade that sucker in for an improved one.

So the early adopters/enthusiasts who love spending money on gaming get a new-improved version of a product the love, and the rest of the gaming world gets a better deal too. Hopefully MS will make the thing wifi out of the box, if Wii, DS and Ps3 can do it, I don't see why those ass-rapers are charging an extra $99 to make the 360 wireless.

[ilnadmy]

Wait, I haven't heard...they're charging $99 for wireless? What is this exactly?

[Gadfly2317]

Wait, I haven't heard...they're charging $99 for wireless? What is this exactly?

Whereas the Wii will connect to your wireless network right out of the box, for the 360, you have to buy this little external antenae-looking wireless network adapter thing for $99 dollars.

[Glockstar]

Hopefully MS will make the thing wifi out of the box, if Wii, DS and Ps3 can do it, I don't see why those ass-rapers are charging an extra $99 to make the 360 wireless.

Whereas the Wii will connect to your wireless network right out of the box, for the 360, you have to buy this little external antenae-looking wireless network adapter thing for $99 dollars.

Yeah, the Wii is Wi-Fi out-of-the-box, but fat lot of good it's doing anybody.

And Sony's charging $99 for a Wi-Fi adapter too, one-eye. (Is the adapter even available yet?) Only the $600, high-end model comes with Wi-Fi out-of-the-box; the cheaper, $500 model does not. Of course, same thing goes for PS3 as Wii: what's there to do online right now?!

But what's the big deal with you and Wi-Fi anyway? I bought the adapter for my 360... but now it just sits here unplugged and unused because my connections weren't as good with it as they are when wired.

[ilnadmy]

Whereas the Wii will connect to your wireless network right out of the box, for the 360, you have to buy this little external antenae-looking wireless network adapter thing for $99 dollars.

Brilliant! Yet another way to squeeze the consumer for what he's worth, while still making it seem like the 360 gives you "options".

Yeah. Options to spend your money.