360 to take lead from Sony, says industry analyst.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

Here is a quote from a Gamespot article:

<b>"Piper Jaffray predicts hard-drive-equipped PSP in mid-2006, healthy growth for gaming industry through 2011.
In their latest gaming industry overview for investors, Piper Jaffray analysts Anthony Gikas and Stephanie Wissink are projecting continued growth for the industry, a new hard-drive-equipped PSP next year, Microsoft's Xbox 360 jumping out to an early lead in the console wars, and a less-than-revolutionary showing for the Revolution.

Starting with the home hardware, Gikas and Wissink released their sales projections for each system over the next three years. Through 2008, Gikas and Wissink expect Microsoft to sell 19.6 million Xbox 360 units, with the PlayStation 3 and Revolution trailing at 15.5 million and 5 million units, respectively. The estimates for both Sony and Nintendo's consoles are based on late 2006 releases for the systems. But while the PS3 is expected to accelerate quickly and lead all systems with 8.5 million units sold in 2008, the ambitious Revolution is listed as starting slow (500,000 units sold in 2006), and lagging behind its competition with 2 million and 3 million systems moved in 2007 and 2008, respectively.....</b>

They think through 2008 the 360 will be outselling the PS3. I don't see how they arrive at that conclusion. Obviously, this is only taking into account the US market. I know the XBOX brand is strong here, but is it that strong? I still see the Sony being dominant. But these guys aren't fan-boys. They are pro's who listen in on board meeting, interview retail and manufacturing peeps, conduct surveys, and more importantly they provide these types of forecast not for us, but for investors. They are basing their projections on something. I think this whole PS3 project might be a little too ambitious, it might be too expensive for both consumers and Sony to manufacture, it might be too time consuming and expensive to develop for, they may have timed things badly waiting to launch behind Microsoft. Certainly these predictions must have some basis. And this isn't the first. It is the first in a while. Before E3 other analyst predicted MS would overtake Sony. But after all the perceived problems with the 360 pricing and hardware, the big picture from the market's perspective hasn't changed. Maybe these people know a bit more about the PS3 and what Sony will be able to do than we do.

[T.Tashi]

Here is a quote from a Gamespot article:

"Piper Jaffray predicts hard-drive-equipped PSP in mid-2006, healthy growth for gaming industry through 2011.
In their latest gaming industry overview for investors, Piper Jaffray analysts Anthony Gikas and Stephanie Wissink are projecting continued growth for the industry, a new hard-drive-equipped PSP next year, Microsoft's Xbox 360 jumping out to an early lead in the console wars, and a less-than-revolutionary showing for the Revolution.

Starting with the home hardware, Gikas and Wissink released their sales projections for each system over the next three years. Through 2008, Gikas and Wissink expect Microsoft to sell 19.6 million Xbox 360 units, with the PlayStation 3 and Revolution trailing at 15.5 million and 5 million units, respectively. The estimates for both Sony and Nintendo's consoles are based on late 2006 releases for the systems. But while the PS3 is expected to accelerate quickly and lead all systems with 8.5 million units sold in 2008, the ambitious Revolution is listed as starting slow (500,000 units sold in 2006), and lagging behind its competition with 2 million and 3 million systems moved in 2007 and 2008, respectively.....

They think through 2008 the 360 will be outselling the PS3. I don't see how they arrive at that conclusion. Obviously, this is only taking into account the US market. I know the XBOX brand is strong here, but is it that strong? I still see the Sony being dominant. But these guys aren't fan-boys. They are pro's who listen in on board meeting, interview retail and manufacturing peeps, conduct surveys, and more importantly they provide these types of forecast not for us, but for investors. They are basing their projections on something. I think this whole PS3 project might be a little too ambitious, it might be too expensive for both consumers and Sony to manufacture, it might be too time consuming and expensive to develop for, they may have timed things badly waiting to launch behind Microsoft. Certainly these predictions must have some basis. And this isn't the first. It is the first in a while. Before E3 other analyst predicted MS would overtake Sony. But after all the perceived problems with the 360 pricing and hardware, the big picture from the market's perspective hasn't changed. Maybe these people know a bit more about the PS3 and what Sony will be able to do than we do.
I'm gonna jump in my time machine and find out. 2008 here I come! BRB!

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..... yeah it's bull$h!t.

No, seriously, given a years head start and M$ having the holiday season all to themselves, yeah I could see them coming up with that.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

I'm gonna jump in my time machine and find out. 2008 here I come! BRB!

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..... yeah it's bull$h!t.

No, seriously, given a years head start and M$ having the holiday season all to themselves, yeah I could see them coming up with that.

I think its bullsh*t too. The headstart won't be unsurmountable, plus people are going to wait for PS3. The masses are definitely going to buy into the hype, I think the PS3 wait and launch is gonna be a big national event that is going to feed itself. 360 is going to take some market share, but I think the PS3 will make it up in the first year. Especially given how old the PS2 technology is, people will be dying to upgrade to PS3.

[Mochan]

Well I wouldn't be surprised, although I've lambasted MS a lot it's true that them launching a year early is probably the best move they can make.

My prediction is still that the 360 will enjoy its foot first in the door period but after the PS3 launches, it will be taken over. Nintendo, again, will come in dead last.

However the PS3 is a huge gamble for Sony. If it doesn't pay off, then we'll only be seeing Microsoft next gen and all our home entertainment systems will be JVC or Aiwa or something, and no longer a four letter S word.

[Gadfly2317]

Gamespot did published two interviews with these guys; I'm not all that impressed with their predictions.

This was an interesting prediction of theirs though: Gikas and Wissink are expecting that new revenue streams like in-game advertising and online downloads will grow 500 percent, from under a quarter-billion in 2005 to $1.36 billion in 2008. They cautioned against short-term investing in publishers because of market volatility over the next 12 months, but reiterated their Outperform rating on major publishers like Electronic Arts, Activision, THQ, and Take-Two Interactive.

More in game advertising, and the more collapsing and consolidation of publishers. I believe that.

I think the main thing that's hard to by is their claim of 19 million xboxs to 3 million Revolutions, when this gen we're currently at about 19 million Revs and 21 million xboxs. The Rev will do better in Japan than GC did, and odds are it will do about the same in America as the 'cube did. It might even do a little better. Curiosity factor on control, lesser price, SSBM online launch title, nostalgia factor/leveraging back catalog. At the very least, I wish the analysts had addressed specific factors about the systems and the market and WHY and HOW they projected the numbers they did. Investment analysts can often nail it, but you can't take their projections without them laying out the solid reasoning.

These two analysts laid out no detailed reasoning at all for the projections on system sales.

[Mochan]

I think the predictions of those guys are whack, I don't care if they are Harvard-trained actuarial scientists or what not but I'd trust their projections as far as I can throw them, and I have a weak pitching arm. As Gadfly said, I don't understand how they came up with those numbers, I don't know if they used some hard trending forecast formulas or if they just put in variables like "SSBM launch title +50!" or some crap like that. Without the reasoning, I don't care for their numbers.

That said, I am concerned over the PS3's prospects. Again, the PS3 is a *huge* gamble and Waco has already explained a lot of why it is a dangerous situation for the PS3.

The recent article Jupes linked to is the real point of contention; all of it doesn't matter if the PS3 loses 3rd party support. Third party is why I was into the PS2 in the first place; the game selection is what I wanted. If the PS3 loses that, then it won't really have much. Again, it's all about the games.

That said, I have no particular loyalty to either Sony or Microsoft. If the PS3 dies and Sony is out of the running, that would mean developers of the games I liked on the PS2 will be migrating to either 360 or Rev, and I would be just as happy resuming my gaming on either platform (just as I did with Sony when Nintendo practically kicked the bucket with the N64).

The PS3 could turn out to be the next N64 ... losing 3rd party support from once being the leading manufacturer. We all know how that ended for Nintendo. Fortunately for Nintendo, it still had enough revenues to keep afloat and fight another day. What about Sony?

[Gadfly2317]

I think the predictions of those guys are whack, I don't care if they are Harvard-trained actuarial scientists or what not but I'd trust their projections as far as I can throw them, and I have a weak pitching arm. As Gadfly said, I don't understand how they came up with those numbers, I don't know if they used some hard trending forecast formulas or if they just put in variables like "SSBM launch title +50!" or some crap like that. Without the reasoning, I don't care for their numbers.

That said, I am concerned over the PS3's prospects. Again, the PS3 is a *huge* gamble and Waco has already explained a lot of why it is a dangerous situation for the PS3.

The recent article Jupes linked to is the real point of contention; all of it doesn't matter if the PS3 loses 3rd party support. Third party is why I was into the PS2 in the first place; the game selection is what I wanted. If the PS3 loses that, then it won't really have much. Again, it's all about the games.

That said, I have no particular loyalty to either Sony or Microsoft. If the PS3 dies and Sony is out of the running, that would mean developers of the games I liked on the PS2 will be migrating to either 360 or Rev, and I would be just as happy resuming my gaming on either platform (just as I did with Sony when Nintendo practically kicked the bucket with the N64).

The PS3 could turn out to be the next N64 ... losing 3rd party support from once being the leading manufacturer. We all know how that ended for Nintendo. Fortunately for Nintendo, it still had enough revenues to keep afloat and fight another day. What about Sony?

It is definitely most dire for Ps3. MS games division is a teeny part of a highly profitible business software company. Sony on the other hand is running red in its electronics division and gaming is essentially its life blood. Nintendo, I don't see the worry; they are in the black with a five billion dollar war chest, they don't have to bleed money the way the Ps3 is to gain marketshare, they can continue to play it safe and still make modest profits.

The one thing you said though about if Ps3 is a failure and loses third party support then games you like may go to 360. The erosion of gaming in Japan is actually a concern. We could see a lot of games just stay in Japan, or just simply not get made. If 360 becomes dominant, then what third parties will over-all tend to emulate will be the successes, and on 360, the xbox hardcore userbase will be the first, so the hits will be the same genres that were hits this time around.

Is stuff like Katamari, Odama, Okami the last gasp of genre-bending/expanding and in a 360 dominated world pushing online subscriptions, do you think we'll see less and less of that kind of stuff? Or am I being unnecssarily alarmist?

[Mochan]

We could see a lot of games just stay in Japan, or just simply not get made. If 360 becomes dominant, then what third parties will over-all tend to emulate will be the successes, and on 360, the xbox hardcore userbase will be the first, so the hits will be the same genres that were hits this time around.


That would be very troubling indeed. Actually, what I see is if Sony goes under, Jap devs will move back to Nintendo as things were in days past. However with the increased support for 360, they could jump ship to 360. This is not as likely though since we still do not know what 360 market penetration will be in Japan; if it has great penetration then they might. If not, then surely they will go to Nintendo.

I am just twiddling my thumbs and hoping I still get to see my favorite games come to light.


Is stuff like Katamari, Odama, Okami the last gasp of genre-bending/expanding and in a 360 dominated world pushing online subscriptions, do you think we'll see less and less of that kind of stuff? Or am I being unnecssarily alarmist?

I don't know. It depends on how the 360 shapes up. MS is promising the 360 will offer more Jap support, yada yada. If the do, then if worst case scenario Sony goes under we have nothing to worry about since these kinds of games will see light there.

However if the 360 continues to be what XBox 1 was, then yes we'll have to say goodbye to these kinds of games as we sit and frag someone we don't even know over the net with a plasma rifle.

[GameLegend]

What a load of crap. I dont care how many graphs a person pulls off or which degree they have that signifies that they can count. Only a person who is looking for stupid attention could blow up some dumb figures like that. Are these guys on crack? How can a person be soo ambitious to vomit numbers like that. This shouldnt even be posted, only if Mask Gamer is trying to illustrate that there are a lot of idoits in the business and videogame industry.

Point proven. Move on.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

What a load of crap. I dont care how many graphs a person pulls off or which degree they have that signifies that they can count. Only a person who is looking for stupid attention could blow up some dumb figures like that. Are these guys on crack? How can a person be soo ambitious to vomit numbers like that. This shouldnt even be posted, only if Mask Gamer is trying to illustrate that there are a lot of idoits in the business and videogame industry.

Point proven. Move on.

Well, i don't think they are pulling these numbers from their butts. I think there is some kind of basis for these figures. It is a shame that basis wasn't provided. I think they must be basing this on pricing information, interviews or surveys they've had with developers, retail. But I don't think the projections will be correct for one reason, nobody can gauge what the consumer is really going to do. Consumer behavior is irrational and I just think a lot of people are going to buy into the Sony hype. Many people all ready have. I think the hype will turn into hysteria around launch for the PS3. I do see the 360 selling almost as much software or almost as much. I have a feeling the PS3 will do well hardware wise, but I think the 360 consumers will purchase more software per machine.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

That would be very troubling indeed. Actually, what I see is if Sony goes under, Jap devs will move back to Nintendo as things were in days past. However with the increased support for 360, they could jump ship to 360. This is not as likely though since we still do not know what 360 market penetration will be in Japan; if it has great penetration then they might. If not, then surely they will go to Nintendo.

I am just twiddling my thumbs and hoping I still get to see my favorite games come to light.




I don't know. It depends on how the 360 shapes up. MS is promising the 360 will offer more Jap support, yada yada. If the do, then if worst case scenario Sony goes under we have nothing to worry about since these kinds of games will see light there.

However if the 360 continues to be what XBox 1 was, then yes we'll have to say goodbye to these kinds of games as we sit and frag someone we don't even know over the net with a plasma rifle.

If 360 is going to get games like this, so soon, maybe Sony could be in for the fight of their lives. I expected something like Jade Empire 2 from Bioware, I expected nothing like the level of graphics they are displaying in this game. If they can couple these kind of graphics with bioware gameplay, they are going to kick azz next gen. Go to IGN under 360 and look at the pics of this FPS RPG. I hope its online.

[GameLegend]

Well, i don't think they are pulling these numbers from their butts. I think there is some kind of basis for these figures. It is a shame that basis wasn't provided. I think they must be basing this on pricing information, interviews or surveys they've had with developers, retail. But I don't think the projections will be correct for one reason, nobody can gauge what the consumer is really going to do. Consumer behavior is irrational and I just think a lot of people are going to buy into the Sony hype. Many people all ready have. I think the hype will turn into hysteria around launch for the PS3. I do see the 360 selling almost as much software or almost as much. I have a feeling the PS3 will do well hardware wise, but I think the 360 consumers will purchase more software per machine.

Basis of what?
WHat the heck are these random numbers based on? In the order the consoles comes out? If that were the case, then DreamCast should of dominated. What if i told u, 360 will rule all and rev and ps3 will die. Based on what you'd ask.
Answer: Sheer opinion
If they cant really tell you how they get these random numbers then we shouldnt take them seriously.

Useless article. Its just something to make the investors feel secure about which company to invest in.
Waste of braincells.

GameLegend projects that all 3 consoles will survive that 360 will be in 3rd place, rev 2nd. Lets write an article about that, i'll even spew u up some numbers if you'd like, and i wont tell u what they are based on :P.





ps. i have no clue what will happen coming next gen, so no real predictions yet

[ThaMaskedGamer]

Basis of what?
WHat the heck are these random numbers based on? In the order the consoles comes out? If that were the case, then DreamCast should of dominated. What if i told u, 360 will rule all and rev and ps3 will die. Based on what you'd ask.
Answer: Sheer opinion
If they cant really tell you how they get these random numbers then we shouldnt take them seriously.

Useless article. Its just something to make the investors feel secure about which company to invest in.
Waste of braincells.

GameLegend projects that all 3 consoles will survive that 360 will be in 3rd place, rev 2nd. Lets write an article about that, i'll even spew u up some numbers if you'd like, and i wont tell u what they are based on :P.





ps. i have no clue what will happen coming next gen, so no real predictions yet


It is easy to say the article is BS since it doesn't come to the conclusion that you would prefer. I don't agree with the conclusion of the article either. But I won't say the article is BS just cause we don't know the motivation behind it. Maybe specifics were laid out in the full report. Maybe the full report is available somewhere. But it is foolish to immediately dismiss the report, if you say something yeah you are grabbing it out the air or out your azz, but this analysis was done base on some amount of objective investigation into the industry. The only reason I don't agree with the report is that no one can predict consumer behavior with certainty, but it does lead me to believe the console race will be tighter between 360 and PS3, and I am interested in the reasons why. My gut feeling tells me cost and software development issues will hamper PS3. I do agree with their assessment of Nintendo's possible performance. I really think, despite the hysteria on this site, the Revolution will not do as well as the GC did. It is pretty easy and clear to see how Nintendo has isolated themselves and they just don't push enough software to float a system by themselves, they don't have any momentum from the GC, if anything GC is going to leave a sour taste in potential Revolution buyer's minds, they will be afraid to get burned again. Their reliance and hope on the gimmick controller won't be enough, people will want something more substantial than fishing, it will get old. Anyway, don't fret, its just predictions.

[trebor]

I can easily see M$ taking the lead this gen.

M$ has got a time advantage, so they will get an immediate marketshare lead. M$ has plenty of 3rd party support - this is where the Dreamcast failed. Plus, let's face it, Sony has grown overly arrogant - forcing consumers to pay more for a feature like Blu-ray when we're essentially entering into a format war with Blu-ray -vs- HD-DVD, which, if memory serves, Sony's format lost the last time when it was Beta -vs- VHS.

It's not helping Sony much that they are fighting more then one battle ATM, they've got the current handhelds war, they've got the upcoming console war, and the upcoming next-gen DVD war. Let's put it this way, if Blu-ray fails, then Sony will fail - on multiple fronts no less. They are being spread thin, while M$ is focused on it's objective.

If it wasn't for the multiple SKUS and b/c fiasco, I would have a stronger inclination to lean towards the 360 as my next-gen console of choice, despite my personal opinion though, they have a lot of momentum and a lot of consumer interest. On the other hand, Sony has nowhere to go but down.

[Mochan]

I agree with trebor's assessment. The key for Sony will be whether Blueray wins the format war or not. Sony's position is very precarious in that they are the more expensive alternative both for consumers and developers, and that is bad since they are likely to lose not only marketshare but also dev support.

I know I trashed Waco a lot but many of his points were spoton regarding Sony's situation (and I never disagreed with those particular points). Although I am still in the Sony camp, that is only because my devs of choice are still in there. If they jump ship, I jump with them.

As we have always reiterated, it's all about the games and they key to winning the console war is whether you can keep third party support or not. The tide looks like its shifting towards Microsoft and away from Sony in this regard, and that is the most important thing of all. As TMG and DTM would probably point out, things like the SKU fiasco et al are just that... little things. Annoyances but in the grand scheme of things the important thing is the games.

Anyway I'm not getting a new console soon yet so there's still ample time to wait and see which platform gets the games I want.

[Fivespot]

Remember the Neo-Geo console anyone?

I know its a stretch comparison to PS3 but the point I'm trying to make is that the most expense/most powerful option isn't always what consumers are going to choose. I can't remember how much it cost, but it was WAY more expensive than the competition although 3rd party support was non existent so that may have also hurt it badly.

[Gadfly2317]

Remember the Neo-Geo console anyone?

I know its a stretch comparison to PS3 but the point I'm trying to make is that the most expense/most powerful option isn't always what consumers are going to choose. I can't remember how much it cost, but it was WAY more expensive than the competition although 3rd party support was non existent so that may have also hurt it badly.

Is Ps3 going to be massively more expensive though? If it comes in at $399 like the 360, and you are getting a lot more for that $399, it really shouldn't be an issue.

[Wan-Fu]

I agree with trebor's assessment. The key for Sony will be whether Blueray wins the format war or not. Sony's position is very precarious in that they are the more expensive alternative both for consumers and developers, and that is bad since they are likely to lose not only marketshare but also dev support.

I know I trashed Waco a lot but many of his points were spoton regarding Sony's situation (and I never disagreed with those particular points). Although I am still in the Sony camp, that is only because my devs of choice are still in there. If they jump ship, I jump with them.

As we have always reiterated, it's all about the games and they key to winning the console war is whether you can keep third party support or not. The tide looks like its shifting towards Microsoft and away from Sony in this regard, and that is the most important thing of all. As TMG and DTM would probably point out, things like the SKU fiasco et al are just that... little things. Annoyances but in the grand scheme of things the important thing is the games.

Anyway I'm not getting a new console soon yet so there's still ample time to wait and see which platform gets the games I want.

Does anyone have any more information about next-Gen GTA? Can they possibly pay Rockstar enough grip to keep it exclusive, even TIME exclusive?? Plus, there will be millions of 360 owners just ready for a next-gen GTA. If next-gen GTA goes multi-plat, there really will be little incentive for the mainstreamers to buy the ps3. Blu Ray means next to nothing for 90 percent of the population, MGS is not the blockbuster it used to be, Jrpg's arent as popular as they used to be, Ninja Gaiden owns action games, Forza outclassed PD, and the Box has the best FPS's. Outside of niche games which Ninty will likely have more of, what games will the ps3 offer the mainstream besides a brand name?
Stuff like Mass Effect announced or the 360 is just mindblowing. I was under the impression the 360 launch would be too skewed towards the xtreme crowd, but so many of the games announced stray far from the path of carbon copy paste and cut-- its rather impressive.

Its not that I'm hating on the ps3, I can't wait to see the visuals its capable of, but I would like to know more about the games, and I want to know if Its cell arrangement makes it nigh impossible to port games to other consoles if the ps3 is the lead sku. If its too hard to port games, and its a nightmare to code for, how many developers can justify the cost of fully comitting to the cell processor and squeezing out as much graphical fidelity as possible? I saw the list of 100 or so games in development, but know next to nothing ABOUT them. If the ps3 is launching in the spring, you would think more concrete information would be available, but that seems more and more unlikely. Plus, WHATS UP WITH PS3 "LIVE". Still no info?

[thelastword]

You know what! I can't fathom any reason why the Ps3 will not be main system seller next gen, NONE! This article is Bs and you guys should know that. I'm still a bit surprised that people are questioning whether Blu-Ray will win, in essence they have. I have'nt been really checking on stuff of late but I know that Paramount the biggest supporter of HD-DVD have ditched it for Blu-Ray. What is left to be done? what else can reveal the reality relative to this format war. Blu-Ray has won already.

Please note, that in the past, Sony's format was always superior in quality to the competition, betamax vs vhs, mini-cd's vs audio tapes etc..And now for the next leap Blu-Ray is indeed the superior format in terms of quality and quantity. What was it that really made DVD's take off? It was the PS2. The cheapest and most widespread dvd player only a couple of months after it launched back in 2001. What will make BLU-RAY take off? Yes again Sony's PS3. How can anyone know that the price of Blu-Ray will be passed on to the consumer, there has'nt been any revelations as to the price. Taking into consideration that Sony has never priced it's console as heftily as analysts have predicted prior to their launch, can we say in all fairness that a $350-400 priced PS3 will cheat our pockets having all the bang and features that the machine has, including Blu-Ray. A next gen format is not an option for the next gen IMO, IT's A NECESSITY in order to push hi-def digital content, in all of it's sub-genres including games and movies.

It appears the analyst only catered to NA figures based on the bit TMG posted but I fail to see Ms maintaining a lead passed spring 2007, If it holds true that a worldwide at spring 06 is fulfilled. I think anyone who believes that Sony is losing third party dev support is fooling themselves. 102 devs in just one region is telling enough and by the time the launch dawns closer, support will skyrocket even further.

The other thing to keep in mind is that final dev kits will ship in December with the full assortment of middleware. The PS3/CELL programming compiler that IBM is working on should be complete soon. So much could be accomplished with only a 2.4ghz cell model in so little time, much more will be accomplished in even less time than before and of course final dev kits will make it that much easier for smaller devs. My point is, the question of 360's ease of development is BS as far as i can see, too many aliased and low framerate games to speak of I am not yet convinced of that especially with all the tools that Ms provided on their dev kits.

So all these baseless points as to MS's supposed take over is moot, I am not even convinced that MS will do all that well passed their launch day and their software will definitely struggle at the early point. All these current gen games will run laps around 360 software especially that of the PS2 DQVIII is launching in November with a demo of FF12, so many solid current gen games coming out now and around the time of 360's launch. If not in America then Japan. KH2 a potential big seller to go against the 360's launch in Japan come December. then all those great games just prior to the 360's launch will be drying up gamers coffers like RE4 for the PS2 in October. If anyone can see good games of interest to them at the 360's launch and beyond, fine. To even presume that the 360 will take over in sales next gen is pure blasphemy IMO as nothing so far indicates that. If anything, I'm expecting the ps3 to do better than the PS2, that's simply my prediction and I'm sticking by it.

[Fivespot]

Is Ps3 going to be massively more expensive though? If it comes in at $399 like the 360, and you are getting a lot more for that $399, it really shouldn't be an issue.

Good point. I'm assuming the system will be at least $500 considering the new technologies will not come cheap (blu-ray, cell processor). Plus, I'm not sure Sony is in a position to take a loss on each console so they may not be able to be as competitve w/MS this gen with regard to pricing.

With most things at this moment - only time will tell.

[Mochan]

Does anyone have any more information about next-Gen GTA? Can they possibly pay Rockstar enough grip to keep it exclusive, even TIME exclusive??

Nextgen GTA is probably Sony Exclusive. What i know is that Rockstar is developing an engine specifically for the PS3 so it is very likely that it will be exclusive to it.

Outside of niche games which Ninty will likely have more of, what games will the ps3 offer the mainstream besides a brand name?

JRPGs, Action games, and niche games. :)

And I do agree, 360's gamelineup is moving away from the "Extreme Crowd" which is excellent. It makes it look more and more like a viable contender for me. Also... this is going to sound funny, but I do like the 360 being on DVD. You know why? Cuz I'm a freaking pirate. Yo ho ho!

Sony's lineup of games is large but also largely unknown. We don't even know the titles for a lot of the games. We can only wait to see what tricks Sony has up its sleeve. I am expecting a lot of mighty things from the PS3.


My point is, the question of 360's ease of development is BS as far as i can see, too many aliased and low framerate games to speak of I am not yet convinced of that especially with all the tools that Ms provided on their dev kits.

What I have noticed is that it is the American games which are having framerate issues. The Japanese trailser I've been seeing have fluid framerates. Weird observation? Maybe I'm being gamer racist here, lol.

By the way, I said Bluray will make or break the PS3 but maybe I am wrong in saying that, games will make or break it (like I said in the same post!). PS3 will thrive if it has the games, if it doesn't it fails.

[trebor]

You know what! I can't fathom any reason why the Ps3 will not be main system seller next gen, NONE! This article is Bs and you guys should know that. I'm still a bit surprised that people are questioning whether Blu-Ray will win, in essence they have. I have'nt been really checking on stuff of late but I know that Paramount the biggest supporter of HD-DVD have ditched it for Blu-Ray. What is left to be done? what else can reveal the reality relative to this format war. Blu-Ray has won already.

You're sounding a little too fanboyish here, I'm afraid.

For one thing, questioning whether Blu-Ray will win or not, shouldn't be surprising - it should be expected. Sony has never won a format war in the past, so there is no reason to assume they will win it now.

Also, Paramount is adding Blu-ray support, not nixing HD-DVD support at all. They're essentially hedging their bets.


Please note, that in the past, Sony's format was always superior in quality to the competition, betamax vs vhs, mini-cd's vs audio tapes etc..And now for the next leap Blu-Ray is indeed the superior format in terms of quality and quantity.

:confused:

Err...and how has having the "superior" quality format compared to the competition worked out for them in the past? Vhs clearly beat betamax, despite being "lower" quality, and DAT clearly beat out mini-CD's, for most audiophiles.

So, being that Blu-Ray is the "superior" format almost assures a victory for HD-DVD, if one is to go by history, that is.


What was it that really made DVD's take off?

The Matrix.


A next gen format is not an option for the next gen IMO, IT's A NECESSITY in order to push hi-def digital content, in all of it's sub-genres including games and movies.

Here I agree with you.


So all these baseless pointsas to MS's supposed take over is moot, I am not even convinced that MS will do all that well passed their launch day and their software will definitely struggle at the early point.

That remains to be seen, but I think M$ will gain the upper-hand this time around.

[slade]

With Mark Rein and others saying that games will eclipse the 20 GB threshold next gen, Blu Ray's addition into the PS3 can't easily be discounted. The PS3 may be the only platform next gen where you won't find multiple disc's cluttering up one game and where HI DEF is truly represented well without games being compressed to hell and back.

As for Piper Jaffray, why would PS3 only sell one million in its first year? In one territory maybe but it will be out by XMAS 2006 in other territories as well. Like others have said, we need the basis for these numbers.

[joquito]

From a publisher's standpoint, putting a game on multiple DVDs is cheaper than on one Blu-Ray disc.

I don't think Blu-Ray has any real advantage of HD-DVD to consumers. Blu-Ray discs still cost more to produce. The price difference will be greater to the consumer than the storage capacity difference.

[Mochan]

It will also matter to pirates, lol. At least Blueray will be one step harder to pirate than DVD. Chinese pay for their software? Oh please Bill, setting up the 360 with a DVD is just asking for modchips galore.

[slade]

From a publisher's standpoint, putting a game on multiple DVDs is cheaper than on one Blu-Ray disc.

Yeah, but from a consumer standpoint, what would you rather have? Costs will go down and when that happens, MS's gonna be stuck with an outdated format.

[GameLegend]

It is easy to say the article is BS since it doesn't come to the conclusion that you would prefer.

Naww, the only conclusion i'd like is that all 3 companies have around the same consumer grip. That all 3 are successful, logically healthy competition.

I just dont see how they can rip these numbers out. I mean understand the business world likes to make predictions on everything. Stable predictions like demographics are a key indicator that can you where the market is headiing. That makes sense.

The fact of the matter is, yes u can make predictions on many consumer products, like sayy dvd players.But throwing out how many consoles will be bought by whatever time, is too arrogant and naive to say. No one really knows, they can make all the predictions they want. The games will be the dynamic force the flucuate the console demands. Right now, all we got is hype and arrogant dumb@sses.

Anyway, don't fret, its just predictions.

Yup. Nothing more, nothing less.

lalalalalalalalalalala <---The equivalent significance of this thread.

[thelastword]

From a publisher's standpoint, putting a game on multiple DVDs is cheaper than on one Blu-Ray disc.

I don't think Blu-Ray has any real advantage of HD-DVD to consumers. Blu-Ray discs still cost more to produce. The price difference will be greater to the consumer than the storage (http://trafficsector.com/new/ezula_proc.php?uid=347942&ezid=121247&elid=8994#do_redir) capacity difference.
No it's not, read this:

<!--StartFragment --> The Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) today announced that Blu-ray Disc manufacturing is ready to go. Broad acceptance and adoption of Blu-ray Disc has contributed to process improvements and cost efficiencies that bring the long-term cost of manufacturing BD-ROM discs in line with current DVD replication costs. "There are a lot of companies trying to stake out a position in various aspects of BD-ROM manufacturing," said Kazuhiro Tsuga, executive officer of Matsu****a Electric. "As a result, we are seeing multitudes of improvements in processes and technology, as well as the effects of economies of scale that make replication extremely cost effective." With these developments in the industry, replication facilities in the United States are setting up and preparing to mass produce BD-ROM Discs. Technicolor is establishing a complete pilot BD disc manufacturing process by July 2005. Cinram which already has a pilot replication line is awaiting the delivery of commercial lines. http://www.blu-ray.com/

Let's say it takes 10 cents to press one DVD 9 and 15 cents to press one BLU-RAY disc with 3 times the capacity of the former, how does this balance out then? there would be no need to press several discs for games on BLU-RAY as opposed to the DVD9. Let's say UT2k7 comes out and fills three DVD9's, that same game will use only one bluray disc, so we're talking 30 cents against 15 cents so where is the cost effectiveness of DVD9's? All it will be in a year or two is dated technology against BLU-RAY, having reached the DVD's maxed potential with slower dual layer read speeds.

SIDE NOTE TO TREBOR:

I recommend reading some more info at the link I gave, there's just much more support for blu-ray and the media is indeed superior to HD-DVD as well, perhaps one of the most important thing's that on BluRay's side is it's rock solid security features, I created a thread on this once, that is a really big draw especially with Hollywood and Sony itself. Less pirating means that more games and movies will be bought at stores and will therefore bring in more money to content providers. It also saves them the hassle of implenting their own method of antipiracy techniques as is evident in pc games even now.

The main point you missed however, Sony never had such a popular medium to forward it's own media. Make no mistake that the ps3 will sell in droves, all Sony has to do, is position the system at an affordable pricepoint and that makes it a done deal. We're talking about a system that will be the most popular in all major regions around the world. Japan is already owned, Europe is pretty much guaranteed, America as well is guaranteed in my opinion. So what is to stop the PS3, does anyone doubt that the PS3 will have the games, the sony machine has always delivered where that is concerned. Just take a look at the psp, I've heard so much whining from my friend Waco in recent times and what do we see now? Alot of triple AAA titles are near and one or two have made it to shore in recent times.

I don't think that Sony will have a slow start with the PS3, there's just too much time left before launch to easily outdo the 360 launch games and by the looks of it most of PS3's currently revealed games already put 360 launch games to shame, how much more impressive will they look closer to the launch in 2006. Imagine, Kojima said that he had to lower the quality of the graphics to make the realtime demo look more real and believable. He said that he could make the graphics much prettier, I'm talking a 2.4ghz cell chip with not much middleware. Xbox 1.5 anyone!!!!! I'm sticking to my gunz here....

[trebor]

SIDE NOTE TO TREBOR:

Listen, to be perfectly honest, in my own humble opinion, Blu-Ray should easily be the victor, seeing as that Sony has two special things going for it: the PS3 and Sony Picture Studios. If Spiderman 3 is only available on Blu-ray format, then sure as sh!t I will be there.

All I'm saying is, history has not been kind to Sony when they have attempted to push their formats on the general public. Consumers can be a fickle bunch, who don't always make the most logical purchasing decisions.

[Wan-Fu]

I don't think that Sony will have a slow start with the PS3, there's just too much time left before launch to easily outdo the 360 launch games and by the looks of it most of PS3's currently revealed games already put 360 launch games to shame, how much more impressive will they look closer to the launch in 2006. Imagine, Kojima said that he had to lower the quality of the graphics to make the realtime demo look more real and believable. He said that he could make the graphics much prettier, I'm talking a 2.4ghz cell chip with n
ot much middleware. Xbox 1.5 anyone!!!!! I'm sticking to my gunz here....

Dude, WHAT launch games will they have that will "outdo" the launch games for the 360. What games?? MGS4 aint comin out in 06, GT Vision either, The first Killzone barely outdid brute force in gamerankings, if it did at all. If you have been paying attention, MS' 360 game library is rather impressive, spans nearly every genre, is gaining more and more momentum and is not all to the extreme. If you have more information on all these AAA games that will best pgr 3, oblivion, PDO, Mass Effect, Too Human and GOW, hook us up! I8? Motorstorm? Maybe Warhawk? We have no info besides CG trailers.

[Mochan]

Kojima said he had to lower the quality and all blur and crap since it looked "too sharp" and "too clean" or something similar, heheh.

Anyway yes, as I had stated, I am still sticking to my prediction that PS3 will win out. I am just cautious about potential pitfalls, and hearing that devs are getting scared of PS3 development costs is a believable and easily a crippling concern if it is true.

[slade]

If I had to call it, PS3's exclusive launch games will probably be composed of:

Tekken 6
Heavenly Sword
I8
Warhawk
Fifth Phantom Saga
Fatal Inertia
Ni-Oh
Armored Core 4 or Project Force, possibly even both.

These titles will probably be supplemented by multi-plat titles like sports games and other third party stuff like Condemned and maybe even a Ridge Racer title.

[Mochan]

No confirmation on Oblivion yet. I am fairly certain Bethesda wants to release it on the PS3 (they have said as much in the past) but I don't know if they've come to any agreement with Microsoft, or whether it is too difficult to port it to the PS3.

[Wan-Fu]

If I had to call it, PS3's exclusive launch games will probably be composed of:

Tekken 6
Heavenly Sword
I8
Warhawk
Fifth Phantom Saga
Fatal Inertia
Ni-Oh
Armored Core 4 or Project Force, possibly even both.

These titles will probably be supplemented by multi-plat titles like sports games and other third party stuff like Condemned and maybe even a Ridge Racer title.

Unless the graphical prowess of the ps3 is a half a generation ahead of the 360, and greater than the ps2/xbox split (and if youve seen Chaos Theory on a hdtv, that's a fairly big gap), that line-up is no competition at all. I read somewhere that Condemned might be dropped for the ps3, and I know Oblivion is, but not sure if thats confirmed.

[thelastword]

Fatal Inertia is pretty much a launch title and they're doing some great things with the physics there. All the games Slade mentioned are my bets as well and you can be guaranteed that I8's visuals will become even more impressive and locked at 60 fps. Tekken 6 or a Tekken Tag 2 is not so hard to believe as well, From what we've seen thus far not all are trailers what was shown of Heavenly sword is mighty impressive indeed, So yes alot of these games look better than 360 launch offerings, even Killing Day looks up to standard, we can only assume that most of these games will look even much better with the time that these devs have at their disposal.

No! I don't expect Mgs4 and GT5 to be there at launch, but I do expect Sony to lead out with some rock solid first party offerings. We can already see that Insomniac is looking pretty good with it's I8, what's about Naughty Dog, They sure do have something up their sleeve.

At this point in time all we can do is wait, but the little that has been shown looks mighty impressive. The next major event will reveal some new and converted franchises for the PS3. I do expect some to see some rpgs, another fighter and another racer for the launch, and I'm not talking EA. So there's much time left to show the games. If you were a Sony Exec what would you do? I'll tell you. You would wait until Ms showed their games launched their system and then come around to give gamers the controller to games on the visual scale of Killzone at the next big event whether it be CES or E3. That would shut everybody up once and for all. Perhaps these dicussions are a bit premature but what has been shown definitely speaks volumes of things to come. What has been shown from Ms on the other hand has question marks all over them with the exception of one and two. By the way all these new games that was shown at the XO5 were they playable? Are they launch games? What type of WoW factor do they bring to the table. Have'nt seen them yet, I'll be doing that now

[Gadfly2317]

Dude, WHAT launch games will they have that will "outdo" the launch games for the 360. What games?? MGS4 aint comin out in 06, GT Vision either, The first Killzone barely outdid brute force in gamerankings, if it did at all. If you have been paying attention, MS' 360 game library is rather impressive, spans nearly every genre, is gaining more and more momentum and is not all to the extreme. If you have more information on all these AAA games that will best pgr 3, oblivion, PDO, Mass Effect, Too Human and GOW, hook us up! I8? Motorstorm? Maybe Warhawk? We have no info besides CG trailers.

When is Too Human coming out?

You can't keep switching topic from "launch titles" to "library". . . nor site lack of info then point to titles with limited info like Too Human.

I agree Too Human looks cool, and from a great developer. But to call Ps3's projected launch titles "no competition" with 360's mostly sequel ridden launch; come on; have you looked at Ni-Oh and Heavenly Sword? There's virtually nothing on 360 like this; and if you can point to far away games like Too Human, it's only fair to point out the monster titles Ps3 is going to have like the next Gran Turismo, MGS4, and virtually every other popular existing IP that will spawn sequels.

Sequels sell, but it's to PS3's credit that Slade was able to point to so many likely original IP's in the launch window. While neither launch looks particularly mind-boggling in the originality department, about the only edge the 360 has is it's coming out first. Unless you're planning to pick up both systems. . . good things come to those who wait.

[Fivespot]

If you were a Sony Exec what would you do? I'll tell you. You would wait until Ms showed their games launched their system and then come around to give gamers the controller to games on the visual scale of Killzone at the next big event whether it be CES or E3. That would shut everybody up once and for all. Perhaps these dicussions are a bit premature but what has been shown definitely speaks volumes of things to come.

If I were a Sony exec I would do as much as possible to deter people from buying a 360 by showing games/capabilities that would make people want to wait longer for a better deal/system.

They are doing the exact opposite which I'm not sure is a smart decision. The reason the 360 is gaining momentum IMO is because Sony has shown so little and remained fairly cryptic.

[slade]

Unless the graphical prowess of the ps3 is a half a generation ahead of the 360, and greater than the ps2/xbox split (and if youve seen Chaos Theory on a hdtv, that's a fairly big gap), that line-up is no competition at all. I read somewhere that Condemned might be dropped for the ps3, and I know Oblivion is, but not sure if thats confirmed.

No competition in response to the games you listed? Three of those, Too Human, Mass Effect and Gears of War, won't even be launch titles. The big titles for 360's launch are Oblivion, PD0, PGR3 and DOA4. I think the titles I listed match up pretty well with those. The only real equivalent the PS3 doesn't have is in the RPG and racing department. Although 360 won't have a game like Fatal Inertia and anything like Heavenly Sword either. The closest equivalent is Ninety Nine Nights and I'm not sure whether that is a 360 launch title.

Edit: I haven't heard anything about Condemned being dropped for PS3. Whether Oblivion will end up on PS3 remains a mystery. I'm thinking they may do what they did with Morrowind's Tribunal expansion and release Oblivion on PS3 with the inevitable expansion included.

[joquito]

No it's not, read this:

<!--StartFragment -->http://www.blu-ray.com/

Let's say it takes 10 cents to press one DVD 9 and 15 cents to press one BLU-RAY disc with 3 times the capacity of the former, how does this balance out then? there would be no need to press several discs for games on BLU-RAY as opposed to the DVD9. Let's say UT2k7 comes out and fills three DVD9's, that same game will use only one bluray disc, so we're talking 30 cents against 15 cents so where is the cost effectiveness of DVD9's? All it will be in a year or two is dated technology against BLU-RAY, having reached the DVD's maxed potential with slower dual layer read speeds.

SIDE NOTE TO TREBOR:

I recommend reading some more info at the link I gave, there's just much more support for blu-ray and the media is indeed superior to HD-DVD as well, perhaps one of the most important thing's that on BluRay's side is it's rock solid security features, I created a thread on this once, that is a really big draw especially with Hollywood and Sony itself. Less pirating means that more games and movies will be bought at stores and will therefore bring in more money to content providers. It also saves them the hassle of implenting their own method of antipiracy techniques as is evident in pc games even now.

The main point you missed however, Sony never had such a popular medium to forward it's own media. Make no mistake that the ps3 will sell in droves, all Sony has to do, is position the system at an affordable pricepoint and that makes it a done deal. We're talking about a system that will be the most popular in all major regions around the world. Japan is already owned, Europe is pretty much guaranteed, America as well is guaranteed in my opinion. So what is to stop the PS3, does anyone doubt that the PS3 will have the games, the sony machine has always delivered where that is concerned. Just take a look at the psp, I've heard so much whining from my friend Waco in recent times and what do we see now? Alot of triple AAA titles are near and one or two have made it to shore in recent times.

I don't think that Sony will have a slow start with the PS3, there's just too much time left before launch to easily outdo the 360 launch games and by the looks of it most of PS3's currently revealed games already put 360 launch games to shame, how much more impressive will they look closer to the launch in 2006. Imagine, Kojima said that he had to lower the quality of the graphics to make the realtime demo look more real and believable. He said that he could make the graphics much prettier, I'm talking a 2.4ghz cell chip with not much middleware. Xbox 1.5 anyone!!!!! I'm sticking to my gunz here....


For what its worth, I sell Hi-Fi equipment and I visited the factory of a manufacturer I sell products for (Classe Audio) 2 months ago and the Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD issue came up. They said they wouldn't commit to one or the other just yet but they did say that the cost to produce blank Blu-Ray discs were about $10 each and that if you rubbed it along carpet, the disc would be rendered unreadable.


For Sony to take their biggest if not only profitable product and hinge its success with Blu-Ray is insane anyway you want to look at it. Blu-Ray as a gaming media is fine but if it fails from a movie standpoint, people will look at it as obselete.

[Zilla Man]

If I had to call it, PS3's exclusive launch games will probably be composed of:

Tekken 6
Heavenly Sword
I8
Warhawk
Fifth Phantom Saga
Fatal Inertia
Ni-Oh
Armored Core 4 or Project Force, possibly even both.

These titles will probably be supplemented by multi-plat titles like sports games and other third party stuff like Condemned and maybe even a Ridge Racer title.

Let's not forget about the 800 pound gorilla Sony supposedly has in its arsenal:

Grand Theft Auto 4

It's due as a launch/6 months of launch title.

Since last year I've heard industry insider rumblings (which I'd posted here), that Sam Houser was so excited by the PS3 dev kits/specs that he was willing to let Sony have 1 - 2 year exclusivity windo for GTA4. Look for an announcement at the next E3. If this is true, it's a HUGE blow for Microsoft.

[Gadfly2317]

For what its worth, I sell Hi-Fi equipment and I visited the factory of a manufacturer I sell products for (Classe Audio) 2 months ago and the Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD issue came up. They said they wouldn't commit to one or the other just yet but they did say that the cost to produce blank Blu-Ray discs were about $10 each and that if you rubbed it along carpet, the disc would be rendered unreadable.

That's harsh. Hopefully they can fix that; I'd hate to have to stop rubbing my games and movies along the carpet, and letting my dog play fetch with them. ;)

[joquito]

That's harsh. Hopefully they can fix that; I'd hate to have to stop rubbing my games and movies along the carpet, and letting my dog play fetch with them. ;)

This is why initially, Blu-Ray discs were to be within a caddie like minidisc or umds. There have been anoucements regarding advancement in durablility for Blu-Ray discs, but nothing has been confirmed. If Blu-ray wins the format war, disc prices will go down but not for years.

[thelastword]

For what its worth, I sell Hi-Fi equipment and I visited the factory of a manufacturer I sell products for (Classe Audio) 2 months ago and the Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD (http://trafficsector.com/new/ezula_proc.php?uid=347942&ezid=121301&elid=9048#do_redir) issue came up. They said they wouldn't commit to one or the other just yet but they did say that the cost to produce blank Blu-Ray discs were about $10 each and that if you rubbed it along carpet (http://trafficsector.com/new/ezula_proc.php?uid=347942&ezid=122053&elid=9800#do_redir), the disc would be rendered unreadable.


For Sony to take their biggest if not only profitable product and hinge its success with Blu-Ray is insane anyway you want to look at it. Blu-Ray as a gaming media is fine but if it fails from a movie (http://trafficsector.com/new/ezula_proc.php?uid=347942&ezid=122274&elid=9815#do_redir) standpoint, people will look at it as obselete.
Joquito I can't believe you went there, I believe your friend is a bit ignorant because TDK a major partner of the Blu-Ray disc association has developed a hard coating technology termed DURABIS. I have posted this here before, but if there's any doubt I'll post a couple of links to substantiate.

<!--StartFragment --> Blu-Ray discs also have an advantage in durability, thanks to a special hard-coating developed by TDK. While CD and DVD media (and, presumably, HD-DVD) can be scratched by wiping with a tissue, Blu-Ray discs can reportedly withstand attack from a screwdriver http://www.projectorcentral.com/hddvd_bluray.htm

Read these, there's just too many:


http://news.com.com/Try%20scratching%20this%20DVD/2100-1041_3-5455

http://www.tdk.com/tecpress/010605_durabis.html

http://www.tdk.com/tecpress/032204_bluelaser.html

If these don't reveal the truth as to Bluray's superiority then nothing will, please be sure to read them all.

[thelastword]

If I were a Sony exec I would do as much as possible to deter people from buying a 360 by showing games/capabilities that would make people want to wait longer for a better deal/system.

They are doing the exact opposite which I'm not sure is a smart decision. The reason the 360 is gaining momentum IMO is because Sony has shown so little and remained fairly cryptic.
Well I don't agree, I believe given the time that Sony has left before their system is launched, they can take their time. Why is sony going to unveil many playable games at the CES and E3 next year? because it makes more sense to do so after MS has launched their system, then they can come in and say this is killzone ps3, here's the controller. Then they would embarass the hell out of the xbox 1.5, so then all skeptics who cry out CGI would shut up once and for all.

I don't think Sony had to rush to show anything playable, as it stands 360 offerings has been so lacklutre that there was'nt even a need to. As far as I'm concerned, ps2 software will be more impressive from a quality standpoint over the 360's launch offerings. I'm not talking graphics but moreso gameplay and polish. That's what makes Sony's position so good, so much more has to be revealed that they can drop the bombs on Ms as needs be. So let's see, hmmm... finalized RSX specs later this month, confirmation as to the memory upgrade and other bits we've been hearing about, A revelation of their next gen online plan, that could be done near or close to the launch, and of course the unveiling of secret and new first party, second party and third party exclusives.

It's always better to hold back and then to release at the most opportuned time.

[Gadfly2317]

This is why initially, Blu-Ray discs were to be within a caddie like minidisc or umds. There have been anoucements regarding advancement in durablility for Blu-Ray discs, but nothing has been confirmed. If Blu-ray wins the format war, disc prices will go down but not for years.

I doubt it will take years for the price to come down on individual discs. Is there any technology any more that doesn't rapidly drop in price? Since Ps3 is using Blue-Ray, between the movies and games, within the first year there will have been millions of Blue-Ray discs produced.

I'm not buying UMD movies; and with much effort have actually stopped my binge DvD buying. I don't think there's much doubt Blue-ray will win the format war. Not very many people are going to buy stand alone hi-def disk players next year, but a LOT of people will be buying Ps3's. If gamers and gear heads are gobbling up crappy little UMD's at $29 a pop (retailers are making more money on UMD movies than they are on Nintendo DS hardware and software combined) then there's no reason to believe they won't go for blue-ray movies.

Sony should pack in a movie with the Ps3 like they did the PsP, just to give people a taste. The percentage of people owning hi-def TV's is going to explode over the next 3 yrs, and they're gonna need hi-def content.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

With Mark Rein and others saying that games will eclipse the 20 GB threshold next gen, Blu Ray's addition into the PS3 can't easily be discounted. The PS3 may be the only platform next gen where you won't find multiple disc's cluttering up one game and where HI DEF is truly represented well without games being compressed to hell and back.

As for Piper Jaffray, why would PS3 only sell one million in its first year? In one territory maybe but it will be out by XMAS 2006 in other territories as well. Like others have said, we need the basis for these numbers.

Availability. Sony may not be able to get enough units out there fast enough. They ran into this problem before. As far as multiple disc, I don't see it being a problem. It could be an inconvenience and certainly a feather in the cap of PS3, but not anything significant. Will I like swapping disc, assuming we will have to, no but it isn't going to sway me to buy a PS3. Games will. And spitting out games could be the other problem.

Gafly, yes the PS3 could be $399, but Sony would possibly be swimming in red ink. They are really in a catch 22 situation. If they come in priced low, they get volume possibly, but take a bath in terms of financials. If they come in too high and the differential in quality in terms of games is not there, consumers could be cool to the PS3. Also, if they come in high or low, MS can cut the price of 360 to still make the PS3 look expensive. And the final killer could be the PS3 launching and having second or 1.5 generation 360 games looking superior. Finally, someone mention playstation "live", this is either the best kept secret in the world, or its just not going to happen. Microsoft is going to really leverage LIVE hard as a significant advantage over PS3. Games like PD0 and GOW are going to be cooperative over LIVE, you will PGR3 live TV. Giving everyone LIVE Silver edition is a stroke of genius. Everyone with a 360 gets to get online and watch others play LIVE games at the least. It will be very hard for gamers NOT to upgrade. Essentially MS has let people peek through the bedroom curtains, knowing they will like what they see and wanna come inside and get some. Plus Silver users will get to create their gamertags and gamercard profiles, which are customizable and anytime people can customize things and show it off to the world, they will be inclined and motivated to do so. Right now, Sony doesn't have the cash do build PS3 LIVE. So it will continue with its peer to peer online approach, which is pretty pathetic. The PS2 is turning out to be a rotten egg. Sure it reaped a lot of gold for Sony, but it made them lazy. They had the cash and the initiative after PSOne, they should have been planning this type of gaming infrastructure. Even if they didn't want to, when they saw Microsoft and Sega do it, they should have at least looked out into the future, looked at PC online gaming, looked at their own game Everquest. Instead, the stuck their head in the sand, did lord knows what with all those profits(plunged them into Cell and blu-ray and PSP), and now have very little wiggle room to respond to what is going on in the industry. The PS3 has gotta be a strike, fastball right down the middle, period. That is the only way Sony can win.

[Mochan]

I don't think Sony had to rush to show anything playable, as it stands 360 offerings has been so lacklutre that there was'nt even a need to. As far as I'm concerned, ps2 software will be more impressive from a quality standpoint over the 360's launch offerings. I'm not talking graphics but moreso gameplay and polish. That's what makes Sony's position so good, so much more has to be revealed that they can drop the bombs on Ms as needs be. So let's see, hmmm... finalized RSX specs later this month, confirmation as to the memory upgrade and other bits we've been hearing about, A revelation of their next gen online plan, that could be done near or close to the launch, and of course the unveiling of secret and new first party, second party and third party exclusives.

It's always better to hold back and then to release at the most opportuned time.

While I think that it is more Sony's style to match whatever MS releases blow for blow, or even with just distraction measures, there is something I would like to comment on regarding the 360.

The 360 demo footage for Oblivion was severely lacking in quality. We've been scrutinizing all sorts of information for the game on the Bethesda boards and the striking thing is that the PC demo (which Zilla Man was shown) had softshadows for the chain manacles and ribcage at the start of the game.

The 360 footage did not. The big question up in the air is whether this was just an unoptimized build, so they chose not to turn shading on, or will the effect not be there in the final release? Further, even assuming the latter, it means we have yet another dev having trouble optimizing performance for the 360. There's also a lack of Anisotropic Filtering on all the 360 screens and Anti Aliasing was also lacking as shown in this 360 screenshot:

http://media.teamxbox.com/games/ss/1041/full-res/1128474829.jpg

We already saw how bad the aliasing was on Enchant Arm, I hope this is not a portent for the final products (probably not since MS has mandated 4x AA on every title).

[Fivespot]

Well I don't agree, I believe given the time that Sony has left before their system is launched, they can take their time. Why is sony going to unveil many playable games at the CES and E3 next year? because it makes more sense to do so after MS has launched their system, then they can come in and say this is killzone ps3, here's the controller. Then they would embarass the hell out of the xbox 1.5, so then all skeptics who cry out CGI would shut up once and for all.

I don't think Sony had to rush to show anything playable, as it stands 360 offerings has been so lacklutre that there was'nt even a need to. As far as I'm concerned, ps2 software will be more impressive from a quality standpoint over the 360's launch offerings. I'm not talking graphics but moreso gameplay and polish. That's what makes Sony's position so good, so much more has to be revealed that they can drop the bombs on Ms as needs be. So let's see, hmmm... finalized RSX specs later this month, confirmation as to the memory upgrade and other bits we've been hearing about, A revelation of their next gen online plan, that could be done near or close to the launch, and of course the unveiling of secret and new first party, second party and third party exclusives.

It's always better to hold back and then to release at the most opportuned time.

I don't disagree with your comments (except for that PS2 bit). I think we just have a difference of opinion since I believe launching earliest will make a difference where you obviously don't think its as big a concern for PS3. Of course they could still blow us all away at the next E3 - but if the installed 360 user base is too large at that point, it could make catching up harder (and this is where we differ).

[ThaMaskedGamer]

If I had to call it, PS3's exclusive launch games will probably be composed of:

Tekken 6
Heavenly Sword
I8
Warhawk
Fifth Phantom Saga
Fatal Inertia
Ni-Oh
Armored Core 4 or Project Force, possibly even both.

These titles will probably be supplemented by multi-plat titles like sports games and other third party stuff like Condemned and maybe even a Ridge Racer title.

You didn't know that? As for the rest of this line-up, these games may turn out to be impressive, but ahhhhhh I don't know if they will have the traction that a Metal Gear or Final Fantasy would have to bring people out. XBOX launched second, but they had a killer launch lineup, not just average. And this lineup will get murdered by second generation 360 games. This lineup can even stand up, in name at least, to the 360 launch games.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

No it's not, read this:

<!--StartFragment -->http://www.blu-ray.com/

Let's say it takes 10 cents to press one DVD 9 and 15 cents to press one BLU-RAY disc with 3 times the capacity of the former, how does this balance out then? there would be no need to press several discs for games on BLU-RAY as opposed to the DVD9. Let's say UT2k7 comes out and fills three DVD9's, that same game will use only one bluray disc, so we're talking 30 cents against 15 cents so where is the cost effectiveness of DVD9's? All it will be in a year or two is dated technology against BLU-RAY, having reached the DVD's maxed potential with slower dual layer read speeds.

SIDE NOTE TO TREBOR:

I recommend reading some more info at the link I gave, there's just much more support for blu-ray and the media is indeed superior to HD-DVD as well, perhaps one of the most important thing's that on BluRay's side is it's rock solid security features, I created a thread on this once, that is a really big draw especially with Hollywood and Sony itself. Less pirating means that more games and movies will be bought at stores and will therefore bring in more money to content providers. It also saves them the hassle of implenting their own method of antipiracy techniques as is evident in pc games even now.

The main point you missed however, Sony never had such a popular medium to forward it's own media. Make no mistake that the ps3 will sell in droves, all Sony has to do, is position the system at an affordable pricepoint and that makes it a done deal. We're talking about a system that will be the most popular in all major regions around the world. Japan is already owned, Europe is pretty much guaranteed, America as well is guaranteed in my opinion. So what is to stop the PS3, does anyone doubt that the PS3 will have the games, the sony machine has always delivered where that is concerned. Just take a look at the psp, I've heard so much whining from my friend Waco in recent times and what do we see now? Alot of triple AAA titles are near and one or two have made it to shore in recent times.

I don't think that Sony will have a slow start with the PS3, there's just too much time left before launch to easily outdo the 360 launch games and by the looks of it most of PS3's currently revealed games already put 360 launch games to shame, how much more impressive will they look closer to the launch in 2006. Imagine, Kojima said that he had to lower the quality of the graphics to make the realtime demo look more real and believable. He said that he could make the graphics much prettier, I'm talking a 2.4ghz cell chip with not much middleware. Xbox 1.5 anyone!!!!! I'm sticking to my gunz here....


Actually there isn't a lot of time if PS3 is launching in Spring 2006. First, if they are launching here in the US in Spring, they will have nothing. It will be a disaster in terms of negative publicity, if you think MS is rushing games, Sony would really have to just put crap together with shoe strings andn bubble gum. Now, that is the kind of launch I expect in Japan in 2006, but nobody really cares, Sony has no competition there. So really they have until Holiday 2006 to get some good games ready for the US launch. Well, we already know that GT5 won't be there until 2007 according to Polyphony, Metal Gear they don't even have game code yet, will Rockstar be ready with GTA4? Being that their games have never been technological breakthroughs, probably could. Final Fantasy and a million J-RPGs could be churned out also. But, the point is, system sellers I don't see by 2007. They could scrap out something like Tekken, Jak and Daxter, which are mild system sellers. But, now you gotta ask, what will they be launching against on 360?

Sony could knock this thing outta the ball park, but things aren't falling into place to make people think that is a certainty. Despite, E-3 and TGS, people are only talking about Gears of War, Oblivion, now Mass Effect is going to get a lot of hype. All I hear outta the Sony camp is Metal Gear. Its going to be new content, not old content, that draws in new gamers and causes current gamers to switch camps.

Finally, you are asking a lot of gamers. You want them to support PS3, PS3 accessories like memory cards and stuff, then also support PSP, PSP movies, Blu-Ray movies and PS3 games. Dude, i'm telling you Sony is spreading themselves too thin. Their own CEO said this in a Newsweek article. He said Apple has like a $40 billion portfolio based on the IPOD, and they (Sony) are basically like Walmart with products all over the place. Gamers can't support all of that Sony gaming related merchandise in large enough numbers to make them all profitable and successful. Sony Gamers can't support UMD movies and Blu-ray movies.

[ThaMaskedGamer]

No competition in response to the games you listed? Three of those, Too Human, Mass Effect and Gears of War, won't even be launch titles. The big titles for 360's launch are Oblivion, PD0, PGR3 and DOA4. I think the titles I listed match up pretty well with those. The only real equivalent the PS3 doesn't have is in the RPG and racing department. Although 360 won't have a game like Fatal Inertia and anything like Heavenly Sword either. The closest equivalent is Ninety Nine Nights and I'm not sure whether that is a 360 launch title.

Edit: I haven't heard anything about Condemned being dropped for PS3. Whether Oblivion will end up on PS3 remains a mystery. I'm thinking they may do what they did with Morrowind's Tribunal expansion and release Oblivion on PS3 with the inevitable expansion included.

I don't know why you and lastword and gadfly keep saying that GOW and Mass Effect aren't launch games. They don't need to be. Remember, PS3 is not launching side by side with 360. When PS3 comes ashore, that is when you will likely see the best 360 games to date, Mass Effect etc, plus you gotta remember, these MS first party games are kinda the weaker titles. Forza 2.0 and Halo3 and Jade Empire 2 etc will likely come at or soon after Sony's launch. So that is why it is important for Sony to really launch with better games than what you listed, I think. Perfect Dark 0 and PGR3 will be long forgotten. Also, you are assumming these games will be PS3 launch games, hunh, not if launch in Spring 2006.

[Zilla Man]

Finally, you are asking a lot of gamers. You want them to support PS3, PS3 accessories like memory cards and stuff, then also support PSP, PSP movies, Blu-Ray movies and PS3 games. Dude, i'm telling you Sony is spreading themselves too thin. Their own CEO said this in a Newsweek article. He said Apple has like a $40 billion portfolio based on the IPOD, and they (Sony) are basically like Walmart with products all over the place. Gamers can't support all of that Sony gaming related merchandise in large enough numbers to make them all profitable and successful. Sony Gamers can't support UMD movies and Blu-ray movies.

As typical from you, faulty logic. By your reasoning, it's Microsoft that's spreading themselves thin with annual new versions of Windows XP updates, Office, Word, Excel, Clip Art, their computer games division/studio, etc. The fact is that right now a majority of Microsoft's resources are being put into prepping Longhorn, their new OS due in 2006.

You're also forgetting that out of all the 3 companies, Microsoft lost the most $ last generation. That's a fact. Hence the cancellation of their sports line, the cancellation/selling off of high profile titles such as True Fantasy Online, Oddworld, and Psychonaughts and the abandonment of the Xbox - all in the sytem's most profitable quarter! It's already been proven that Uncle Bill will not continue dumping his company's billions into the black hole of videogaming.

[Fivespot]

It's already been proven that Uncle Bill will not continue dumping his company's billions into the black hole of videogaming.

Sure, thats why he is releasing a new console in November.

[thelastword]

Actually there isn't a lot of time if PS3 is launching in Spring 2006. First, if they are launching here in the US in Spring, they will have nothing. It will be a disaster in terms of negative publicity, if you think MS is rushing games, Sony would really have to just put crap together with shoe strings andn bubble gum. Now, that is the kind of launch I expect in Japan in 2006, but nobody really cares, Sony has no competition there. So really they have until Holiday 2006 to get some good games ready for the US launch. Well, we already know that GT5 won't be there until 2007 according to Polyphony, Metal Gear they don't even have game code yet, will Rockstar be ready with GTA4? Being that their games have never been technological breakthroughs, probably could. Final Fantasy and a million J-RPGs could be churned out also. But, the point is, system sellers I don't see by 2007. They could scrap out something like Tekken, Jak and Daxter, which are mild system sellers. But, now you gotta ask, what will they be launching against on 360?

Sony could knock this thing outta the ball park, but things aren't falling into place to make people think that is a certainty. Despite, E-3 and TGS, people are only talking about Gears of War, Oblivion, now Mass Effect is going to get a lot of hype. All I hear outta the Sony camp is Metal Gear. Its going to be new content, not old content, that draws in new gamers and causes current gamers to switch camps.

Finally, you are asking a lot of gamers. You want them to support PS3, PS3 accessories like memory cards and stuff, then also support PSP, PSP movies, Blu-Ray movies and PS3 games. Dude, i'm telling you Sony is spreading themselves too thin. Their own CEO said this in a Newsweek article. He said Apple has like a $40 billion portfolio based on the IPOD, and they (Sony) are basically like Walmart with products all over the place. Gamers can't support all of that Sony gaming related merchandise in large enough numbers to make them all profitable and successful. Sony Gamers can't support UMD movies and Blu-ray movies.
Clearly not all launch games have been revealed, that's the whole point, what's significant is that what has been revealed thus far has been done in little time with mindblowing results. My argument is this, There's a great compiler close to readiness for ps3, the full middleware set along with the RSX will ship come december. Sony's approach to dev support in terms of programming is leagues superior to what they offered with the ps2. The ps3 is significantly easier to code for than the ps2. One PPC core distributing dedicated tasks to several spe's says much as to how beefy a ps3 engine can be. The point to note here is how quickly it can be done. Did you notice Sonic being played on the ps3 devkit, that was gameplay, what was shown of I8 was gameplay as well.

These devs are hard at work creating and completing the launch games as we speak and it seems that they're not having the problems that 360 devs are facing. I mean TMG you like your racing sims after all, I like my racing games as well, Isn't it important to you, that the racers you purchase be locked at 60fps. Upsides! downsides you see, Another reason GT4 did much better than Forza, the sense of speed. Alot of people bash the ps2's launch but do you remember Epic porting over unreal tournament to it in 9 months, do you remember timesplitters at the launch as well, locked at 60 fps with some of the best lighting in a game at the time and of course I've mentioned the others like DOA2 hardcore and SSX and tekken tag all great looking fluid playing games.

It's been 6 months since E3, don't you think that much progress has been made since then. We're looking at another 3 months till the CES and after that another 5 months till E3. That's alot of time to prepare games for a system's launch whether it be for Japan only or worldwide. As I've said many times before, Devs can concentrate on finishing their games as they envisioned, they are not bogged down in time struggling to make their games hit an unsatisfactory 30 fps with aliasing et al.

[Gadfly2317]

Sure, thats why he is releasing a new console in November.

Exactly, because the last one was a money loser, and pinching out a new console onto the market--after killing the failed xbox off early--is seen by MS execs as their one hope of survival in this market. "Launching first" is the key to winning, as MS execs have made clear over and over and over in various interviews, not quality, depth, diversity or originality.

The new $400 dollar system that costs $350 to manufacture will take care of the xbox's red-ink--along with the online extortion racket--if consumers are willing to line up and take it in the ass with no vaseline. If gamers don't bend over, don't expect MS to stand behind the 360 anymore than they stood behind the xbox. MS does not condone or support failure.

[Fivespot]

Exactly, because the last one was a money loser, and pinching out a new console onto the market--after killing the failed xbox off early--is seen by MS execs as their one hope of survival in this market. "Launching first" is the key to winning, as MS execs have made clear over and over and over in various interviews, not quality, depth, diversity or originality.

The new $400 dollar system that costs $350 to manufacture will take care of the xbox's red-ink--along with the online extortion racket--if consumers are willing to line up and take it in the ass with no vaseline. If gamers don't bend over, don't expect MS to stand behind the 360 anymore than they stood behind the xbox. MS does not condone or support failure.

WOW - HOLY SCHNIKES (as Tom Farley would say)!!! I wish we had government officials with this same opinion and ambition.

I think the 360 DOES offer quality, diversity, & originality yet may not offer as much as the PS2 or future PS3. This is my opinion and I understand others think differently.

I am a gamer by heart and are excited by the new console based on my pleasant experiences with the current XBOX.

As much as I'd like to take a stand and help prevent companies like MS from focussing on the bottom line rather than consumers well-being, I don't feel like fighting that battle at this point. As far as I'm concerned, many, many companies act like this but MS is one of the biggest so I understand your frustration and obvious anger.

[Mochan]

Despite, E-3 and TGS, people are only talking about Gears of War, Oblivion, now Mass Effect is going to get a lot of hype. All I hear outta the Sony camp is Metal Gear. Its going to be new content, not old content, that draws in new gamers and causes current gamers to switch camps.

Personally, it's old content that will get me to swap. I don't know squat about new content, Gears of War and Mass Effect don't excite me like Oblivion or Call of Duty 2 does.

What has me excited on PS2 isn't i8 or Heavenly Sword, it's Metal Gear Solid 4, Devil May Cry 4, Tekken 6, the prospects of Final Fantasy XIII, etc.

New content is nice but that's what I settle into once I already have the system. New content usually doesn't make me go out and buy a system, it's something I lap up after I have the system. I don't know if I'm a minority in this, though.

[Mochan]

As I've said many times before, Devs can concentrate on finishing their games as they envisioned, they are not bogged down in time struggling to make their games hit an unsatisfactory 30 fps with aliasing et al.

Here's a weird thing I noticed, not sure if I'm entirely accurate since I didn't really look into things.

But the 360 trailers I've been watching from American devs have poor performance, like missing AA and poor framerate, even missing soft shadows. I saw this with GoW, Oblivion, CoD2, and we have all heard about how PGR3 is having framerate issues.

By contrast, the American developed game I saw on the PS3 had no such issues so far (I8 was moving quite fluidly). Though maybe Killzone should be brought up as we heard that was a fast-forwarded render.

I'm not going into Japanese trailers since the Japanese stuff I've seen so far move fast and fluid on both systems.

I don't know if this relevant to what TLW said but I still get the impression that the PS3 is a lot beefier and perhaps developing for it is easier that we all might have suspected.

[theWacoKid]

Exactly, because the last one was a money loser, and pinching out a new console onto the market--after killing the failed xbox off early--is seen by MS execs as their one hope of survival in this market. "Launching first" is the key to winning, as MS execs have made clear over and over and over in various interviews, not quality, depth, diversity or originality.

The new $400 dollar system that costs $350 to manufacture will take care of the xbox's red-ink--along with the online extortion racket--if consumers are willing to line up and take it in the ass with no vaseline. If gamers don't bend over, don't expect MS to stand behind the 360 anymore than they stood behind the xbox. MS does not condone or support failure.

Says the guy who bought a psp with its $50 accessory tax and overpriced games, which lack any signs of imagination whatsoever. But, hey, paying $40 for a retread of hot shots golf when you can buy the console versions for half the price and get more features, proves conclusively that not only do you take it up the ass as a consumer, but you do so with a big smile, sans vaseline. What your problem is with the xbox360 is beyond me. You seem to have no problem being bent over and rammed up the ass by sony inc, maybe its just that you see the japanese as being more polite when probing you anally.

[Gadfly2317]

Says the guy who bought a psp with its $50 accessory tax and overpriced games, which lack any signs of imagination whatsoever. But, hey, paying $40 for a retread of hot shots golf when you can buy the console versions for half the price and get more features, proves conclusively that not only do you take it up the ass as a consumer, but you do so with a big smile, sans vaseline. What your problem is with the xbox360 is beyond me. You seem to have no problem being bent over and rammed up the ass by sony inc, maybe its just that you see the japanese as being more polite when probing you anally.

Says the guy who used to hype what a good deal the PsP was; and it is. . .that kinda tech in that small a package is a deal. I think you are just sore that you bought it, only to trade it in right before all the good games started coming out. . . traded it in to get the 360 after being dissapointed with the xbox and keeping the Ps2 as his sole console of this generation.

You don't know what my problem with the 360 is? You will. . . you are just a slow learner and will be learning the same lessons all over again that you did last generation.

The new lesson you will learn next gen is the same one we learned in the DS vs PsP war: new and innovative is more fun than same-old w/graphical edge. Regardless of how next gen sales turn out, Revolution>Ps3>360. I'm not saying there's no fun to be had on the 360, but add in the handhelds, there's just too much fun to waste time and money with the bottom of the barrel 360.

[slade]

You didn't know that? As for the rest of this line-up, these games may turn out to be impressive, but ahhhhhh I don't know if they will have the traction that a Metal Gear or Final Fantasy would have to bring people out. XBOX launched second, but they had a killer launch lineup, not just average. And this lineup will get murdered by second generation 360 games. This lineup can even stand up, in name at least, to the 360 launch games.

Hrmmm, had forgotten about Armored Core 4 on 360. I remember reading about it somewhere though. Anyway, the inevitable expansion will probably launch on PS3.

You're jumping back and forth here between whether these launch titles match 360's or not, which was the original argument and whether these titles will match 360's best a year into that console's life. IMO, quality wise, you can't discount them. You like bringing up how great the X-box's launch was but that was solely because of one game which was backed by a good developer. For PS3, we have Warhawk, I8 and Tekken 6. All three games are backed by good developers. You can sort of shoehorn Heavenly Sword in there too if you were a fan of Ninja Theory's other X-box game, Kungfu Chaos. To me, they're unproven but what they've shown so far is amazing and the standards they've set for themselves, 1080p support, are nice.

Availability. Sony may not be able to get enough units out there fast enough. They ran into this problem before. As far as multiple disc, I don't see it being a problem. It could be an inconvenience and certainly a feather in the cap of PS3, but not anything significant. Will I like swapping disc, assuming we will have to, no but it isn't going to sway me to buy a PS3. Games will. And spitting out games could be the other problem.

Their fab processes are a lot better then they were circa 2000 and they have more plants as well to crank out shipments. Part of the reason the PS2 shortage occured was because their fabrication plant in Nagasaki was not completed on time. That held back the number of units they could deliver. While I'm pretty sure that we may see some shortages, I think it'll probably be more due to demand rather then what happened with the PS2.

As for the games themselves, I'm sure a guy who values tech as much as you said you did would be pissed if his games were compressed to hell to fit all that Hi Def content onto a DVD-9. Remember the scenario with GC multi-plats and how they were inferior in the sound department. That could happen to the X-box.

[thelastword]

Here's a weird thing I noticed, not sure if I'm entirely accurate since I didn't really look into things.

But the 360 trailers I've been watching from American devs have poor performance, like missing AA and poor framerate, even missing soft shadows. I saw this with GoW, Oblivion, CoD2, and we have all heard about how PGR3 is having framerate issues.

By contrast, the American developed game I saw on the PS3 had no such issues so far (I8 was moving quite fluidly). Though maybe Killzone should be brought up as we heard that was a fast-forwarded render.

I'm not going into Japanese trailers since the Japanese stuff I've seen so far move fast and fluid on both systems.

I don't know if this relevant to what TLW said but I still get the impression that the PS3 is a lot beefier and perhaps developing for it is easier that we all might have suspected. Well Mochan, as they say talk is cheap. I do remember all the talk of Xna and the unified shader efficiency talk, I've heard so much talk about how easy it is to program for the 360 but all that was just talk. At times of revelation for the 360 you can't help it but notice that the devs are struggling with the hardware. We're talking a triple core system much more powerful and much easier to program than the ps2 and games can't look good enough at launch hence why I brought up ps2 launch games. Fine! they don't look like MGS4 and i8, at least give me a solid believable framerate, 360 devs simply should not struggle to lock their games at 30fps when it's clear that the quality of imagery is significantly less than PS3 revelations.

So the question is inevitable, why are the devs struggling? I'm not so sure that the 360 is in any way easier to program for than the PS3. The other thing I'm thinking of is that hardware limitations especially on the cpu side is already bearing it's ugly head, Is everything rock solid with the unified shader approach? I guess we will know more soon. Let's be honest here, Need for speed most wanted for the 360 can't run at 60fps for the launch (NEED FOR SPEED) out of all games, it defeats the purpose IMO, the sadder thing is, the game looks no different than the xbox or ps2 version with the exception of it's higher resolution. I would really like to know....

[theWacoKid]

Says the guy who used to hype what a good deal the PsP was; and it is. . .that kinda tech in that small a package is a deal. I think you are just sore that you bought it, only to trade it in right before all the good games started coming out. . . traded it in to get the 360 after being dissapointed with the xbox and keeping the Ps2 as his sole console of this generation.

You don't know what my problem with the 360 is? You will. . . you are just a slow learner and will be learning the same lessons all over again that you did last generation.

The new lesson you will learn next gen is the same one we learned in the DS vs PsP war: new and innovative is more fun than same-old w/graphical edge. Regardless of how next gen sales turn out, Revolution>Ps3>360. I'm not saying there's no fun to be had on the 360, but add in the handhelds, there's just too much fun to waste time and money with the bottom of the barrel 360.

Why don't you address the HSG remarks instead of totalling dodging the issue.You're this big value guy, screaming like a stuck pig on how MS is ripping consumers off, but you won't go near sony's rape job with the psp, the games, the accessories, the umd movies, the lame library of portathons and failed original titles, all of which you know is 100% correct. What new games on the psp? Virtua tennis, which I played back on the DC. GTA on psp? Sorry, but after 3 GTA games on the ps2, I'm all GTAed out. Of course, you, Mr. Value King apparently have no problem forking over $50 for a stripped down, poorly performing, graphically sucky version of GTA. Well, bully for you, you're the king! All hail, Mr. Value King! Medevil, which was a lame platformer on the ps. Some lame puzzle/racing games which are nothing but expensively priced filler from sony. A crappy expensive version of socom. NBA 06 take two, gretzky take two. Wow, what a library of hot titles I"m missing. Maybe I should fork over for EA's take two sports pocket titles complete with long loads and laggy menus yet again. Oh, yeah, let me hang around for this load of crap and continue to take hits on my pocketbook waiting for things to get better.

At least I"m not that stupid to realize when I'm being insulted by developers and having my pocketbook assaulated, but, hey, Mr. Value King, you tell me all the wonders of GTA on psp and how playing the same old on inferior hardware represents great value just because its on a handheld. I got the rid of the psp and glad of it. The 360 had nothing to do with me dumping the psp. The psp was gone regardless. At a certain point, you look at the landscape and like what you see or don't. I anticipated a wider psp specific array of software, I thought, developers would emerge in force for the psp and that game prices would moderate. None of it came true, nor does it seem likely that it will happen. This is going to a handheld riddled with expensive, inferior hand me downs from the console world.

I gave the psp a shot, I made far more use of its multimedia capabilities than you ever have. I bought and rented titles, but in the end, the hardware is flawed for its intended purpose. Its simply not ready for prime time as a pick up and play handheld. The DS represents the better hardware in that regard. Game wise, I was more immersed in titles like Lumines and Ridge Racer than I've ever been for any DS title. I still far prefer traditional gba games by a mile over your DS innnovation. You can take that little stylus and go poke yourself in the eye with it. I think, if I had known about the backlit gba screen nintendo was coming out with, I probably would've passed on the DS and gone for that instead.

I had my xbox for 3 years, remind the good folks tuning in how long you had an xbox. So, its not suprising you're harboring bitterness here towards MS.

Hasn't seen a fricking game on the revolution, but like a good little nintendo ass kisser, is already pronouncing victory. Yeah, you're builiding a lot of credibility there, pal. Your insults amuse me, you crapped all over the psp, but then impulse bought one at launch. Who are you kidding, november 22nd, you'll be down at the mall, scoping out the 360 section. The 360 is the bottom of the barrel?! Well, if that's the case, your psp isn't even in the barrel. And your gc library is lame-o city without Zelda. Enjoy your big hit xmas title on the gc for this year, Pokemon XD! LOL! And you're pissing on the 360. You make me seriously laugh. Yeah, poor Waco, sold your gc, you're going to miss out on zelda, oh, yeah, I'm really missing out here, boys. One title to get out this year that mattered on the gc and nintendo fricking chokes, and you think the rev is going to own the ps3 and 360. With frickin what?! A glorified tv remote masquerading as a controller and more mario madness. Yeah, fine, whatever, nintendo boy, you keep the faith and bow at the alter of iwata and the shigmeister.

[slade]

Oh, it was confirmed this morning via an interview that Condemned, Oblivion, Full Auto, Call of Duty, and DOA are all exclusive to 360.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12071

Pretty impressive if true. MS probably shipped a lot of moneyhats this fall.

[Mochan]

Well I can see Oblivion as being exclusive since Beth has been very tightlipped about their other plans for it lately, whereas at first they said they would develop and release it for whatever console they can.

It's not exactly a blow for the PS3 since that crowd is not part of the regular market, but it's still a big loss and it's definitely a big plus for the 360. Still, it's not exclusive for us PC gamers. ;P

[theWacoKid]

Oh, it was confirmed this morning via an interview that Condemned, Oblivion, Full Auto, Call of Duty, and DOA are all exclusive to 360.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=12071

Pretty impressive if true. MS probably shipped a lot of moneyhats this fall.

MS specifically went to infinity ward and asked for COD2 to be a launch title for the 360. Otherwise, this would have been a pc title only. Titles like Oblivion and Condemned were only rumored to have ps3 versions in the works, just like the infamous Ninja Gaiden 2 rumor. These titles are console exclusive, but who knows what that means, they could be time limited exclusives. People better start waking up to the fact that the pc development community is still going to favor heavilly 360 development over the ps3.

When Id software gets up on stage and declares that their primary development plafform going forward is the 360, people better take notice. The ps3 was not developed with pc developers in mind. It was created with sony in mind and japanese devs like Squenix and Konami, companies that make movie heavy games. The ps3 dev platform is designed so that the cgi movies can be created on ps3 workstations and the assets easily transferred over to the ps3. With the high capacity bluray discs, a movie lover's wet dream come true. The moviestation3 will certainly own the 360 in the pre-rendered cinema, cut scene extravaganza department. If that's that your thing, you'll be in heaven. If I have to endure another MGS game with those tortuous, bloated, dreary, cut rate bond wanna be cut scenes filled with wacky characters from the MGS comic book universe, I'll take up crack smoking instead.

[Gadfly2317]

Hasn't seen a fricking game on the revolution, but like a good little nintendo ass kisser, is already pronouncing victory. Yeah, you're builiding a lot of credibility there, pal.

I know its a pretty outlandish prediction, but it's not because I'm a Nintendo ass-kisser. When it comes to ass-kissing in the game universe, I'm a whore sold out to whoever is delivering the most fun and original experience. My near psychotic level of enthusiasm about the DS prior to its release had nothing to do with blind faith in Nintendo and everything to do with the potential I saw for game design that the new hardware setup afforded. I remember certain asses around mocking my use of the word "potential" by claiming whatever potential was there would never be utilized, third parties would ignore the system, and that Nintendo would simply port over tired franchises. I've never been happier to be right. Have you noticed how many DS reviews are starting out with the words "gameplay not possible without the DS hardware." It's gotten so bad I saw a review the other day that apologized for using the "cliche" phrase.

I know the Rev will not dominate sales, nor will it dominate third party support, nor will it contain the volume of games seen on the other systems. You can crack all you want about "Tv remotes" but Nintendo is experiencing a creative rennaissance and its handheld hardware design has captured the imagination of third party developers and gamers in Japan. I predict Nintendo will continue this trend with the Revolution, a mix of franchises and new stuff combined with incredibly fresh gameplay made possible by its innovative hardware. I could always be wrong, but I will say one thing, you've got some chutzpah to question anyone's credibility.

As for Zelda Twilight Princess. . . so what? There is no one more notorious for being late, for delaying, for not putting out something until its done. In this all-vital christmas contest between Ps2, GC, and Xbox. . . is one GC title gonna, what, put GC in third place? At the end of the generation are you still stuck in the "one game is a system seller" mentality? No one buys or does not buy a system at the end of the generation based on a 3-4 month delay of one title.

I'm GLAD its delayed if it wasn't yet a highly polished masterpiece. I just want the game to be perfection, to be released when its damn well ready. MS ethic on the other hand--the one its been displaying ever since Brute Force--put it out sloppy, ready or not, and this ethic is on full display again with next gen racers running at 30fps.

[slade]

Only some lame japanese developers, who feel the need to show cut-scene after cutscene of FMV instead of actual engine graphics need so much disc space.

And Mark Rein, let's not forget him.

[joquito]

Joquito I can't believe you went there, I believe your friend is a bit ignorant because TDK a major partner of the Blu-Ray disc association has developed a hard coating technology termed DURABIS. I have posted this here before, but if there's any doubt I'll post a couple of links to substantiate.

http://www.projectorcentral.com/hddvd_bluray.htm

Read these, there's just too many:


http://news.com.com/Try%20scratching%20this%20DVD/2100-1041_3-5455

http://www.tdk.com/tecpress/010605_durabis.html

http://www.tdk.com/tecpress/032204_bluelaser.html

If these don't reveal the truth as to Bluray's superiority then nothing will, please be sure to read them all.


The source I mentioned wasn't a friend but the lead technician for Classe's CD/DVD division. Ultra durable CD media has been available for years now. I'm sure its available for DVD if the demand grows for it. TDK isn't doing anything for free. How much will consumers be charged for this. There was nothing wrong with using caddies, except that they cost money. Now that money is going to TDK instead.

This is why I don't see any real world differences between the two media: The capacity differences between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are negligible in real world applications. Its been hashed before how the need for 50gigs is barely warranted for gaming and definitely not required for HD movies over 20gigs. Most PC games are techinically High Def, but aren't labelled as such. 1,000,000 pixels are needed for something to truthfully be labelled High Definition. Any PC game that is run @1280X720 or above classifies as so. How many of these games require 20gig media or 50 gig media? Only some lame japanese developers, who feel the need to show cut-scene after cutscene of FMV instead of actual engine graphics need so much disc space.

[Wan-Fu]

Well Mochan, as they say talk is cheap. I do remember all the talk of Xna and the unified shader efficiency talk, I've heard so much talk about how easy it is to program for the 360 but all that was just talk. At times of revelation for the 360 you can't help it but notice that the devs are struggling with the hardware. We're talking a triple core system much more powerful and much easier to program than the ps2 and games can't look good enough at launch hence why I brought up ps2 launch games.
So the question is inevitable, why are the devs struggling? I'm not so sure that the 360 is in any way easier to program for than the PS3. The other thing I'm thinking of is that hardware limitations especially on the cpu side is already bearing it's ugly head, Is everything rock solid with the unified shader approach? I guess we will know more soon. Let's be honest here, ...

Quote from Carmack, who is no MS whore. Taken from GAF

The Xbox 360 is the first console that I've ever worked with that actually has development tools that are better for games than what we've had on PC," John Carmack, Id's technical director and one of the most respected programmers in the game industry, said in a videotaped announcement.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/06/technology/06xbox.html

XNA and Unified Shaders must be doing a-ok, Last Word.

Since we know nothing about Sony's launch titles, yet alone when Sony is ACTUALLY going to launch, its pointless to argue which launch titles are better, but oblivion and condemned exclusivity are telling nonetheless.

[thelastword]

The source I mentioned wasn't a friend but the lead technician for Classe's CD/DVD division. Ultra durable CD media has been available for years now. I'm sure its available for DVD if the demand grows for it. TDK isn't doing anything for free. How much will consumers be charged for this. There was nothing wrong with using caddies, except that they cost money. Now that money is going to TDK instead.

This is why I don't see any real world differences between the two media: The capacity differences between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are negligible in real world applications. Its been hashed before how the need for 50gigs is barely warranted for gaming and definitely not required for HD movies over 20gigs. Most PC games are techinically High Def, but aren't labelled as such. 1,000,000 pixels are needed for something to truthfully be labelled High Definition. Any PC game that is run @1280X720 or above classifies as so. How many of these games require 20gig media or 50 gig media? Only some lame japanese developers, who feel the need to show cut-scene after cutscene of FMV instead of actual engine graphics need so much disc space.
It does'nt matter who said it, the fact is he is/was still ignorant to the fact. Blu-Ray is now available in Japan how many reports have we had of it being easily scratched? IT's going to launch in America and the rest of the world soon and much more strides are being taken to make the media even better. When you say TDK is going to charge for all of this, you must understand that they are a partner of the BLU-RAY committee a partner with Sony on this format. TDK's Durabis will become standard with all blu-ray manufacturer's and consumer's will opt for the hardcoated discs because it is better. As a matter of fact consumers have been clamoring for such a solution for a very long time, now it will be available as standard with blu-ray.

If you walk into a store and the salesman offers you a standard blu-ray disc for $10 and a hardcoated one for $13 which one would you buy. What I'm driving home here is that durabis will become standard on ps3 games movies etc.. and the consumer will definitely make it that way or demand it, this has been a thorn in the flesh of media collectors for too long.

As for the capacity of HD-DVD and Blu-Ray being negligible, I'll just give you one example. Is unreal tournament 2k4 filled with cinemas? NO! Mark Rein said they'll fill 20gb's easily. The japanese fmv's holds no bearing as a matter of fact as I can easily see more ambitious games heading to the 50gb's of a Blu-Ray dual layer towards the end of these console's lifecycle.

Everything is progressive, Internet speed is hitting 30-50mbs, hard drives are getting bigger by extension every other thing will naturally follow suit. As a man who works with tech you should embrace this rather than not. More storage opens up much more possiblities in an evolving tech era. iF you can be satisfied with low tech dvd 9's on an already tasked cpu, I cannot. I will go where the advancements are made, Hidef content, Hidef media format, Hidef games at 1080p, Higher speed internet to stream those games online. We simply cant live in the pass.

[trebor]

At least I"m not that stupid to realize when I'm being insulted by developers and having my pocketbook assaulated, but, hey, Mr. Value King, you tell me all the wonders of GTA on psp and how playing the same old on inferior hardware represents great value just because its on a handheld. I got the rid of the psp and glad of it.

Speaking of value, how much $$$ did you get on your PSP trade-in?



I gave the psp a shot, I made far more use of its multimedia capabilities than you ever have. I bought and rented titles, but in the end, the hardware is flawed for its intended purpose.

You gave it a shot? Less then six months was a shot? What are you going to do when the big launch window titles dry up on your precious 360 and you are left with nothing to play Summer '06?


Well, if that's the case, your psp isn't even in the barrel. And your gc library is lame-o city without Zelda. Enjoy your big hit xmas title on the gc for this year, Pokemon XD! LOL!

Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance - October 17th.

It may not be the "hit" that Zelda will be, but for any Nintendo fan over the age of 12, who is worth more then their weight in crap, will be salivating for this game.

[Gadfly2317]

We simply can't live in the past.

You can if you are MS though. I will not deny that MS has competently executed some of the things its done, but everything it has done has been copied. They are not an innovator, nor a leader. Everything from their operating system to their web browser to their media player has been copied from other innovators. They are cannibals, eating and destroying innovators. If Waco want's to know what I have against 360 and MS's "me too-ing" the console game industry, its that they are repeating their formula and if they are able to dominate the game industry the way they've dominated other things, I just don't think that's so great. The only innovation they've really brought to gaming is charging you to play online--not just for MMORPGs, but for every game.

Like you are so aptly saying, everything about the 360 is the past. That's what's so funny about them rushing to be the first console to market, it really shows how uncreative they are. While Sony is pushing the tech envelope, Nintendo is pushing the innovation envelope. All MS is pushing is its greedy fist up. . . .well, we know where they're putting that greedy fist. No need to be explicit.

[joquito]

It does'nt matter who said it, the fact is he is/was still ignorant to the fact. Blu-Ray is now available in Japan how many reports have we had of it being easily scratched? IT's going to launch in America and the rest of the world soon and much more strides are being taken to make the media even better. When you say TDK is going to charge for all of this, you must understand that they are a partner of the BLU-RAY committee a partner with Sony on this format. TDK's Durabis will become standard with all blu-ray manufacturer's and consumer's will opt for the hardcoated discs because it is better. As a matter of fact consumers have been clamoring for such a solution for a very long time, now it will be available as standard with blu-ray.

If you walk into a store and the salesman offers you a standard blu-ray disc for $10 and a hardcoated one for $13 which one would you buy. What I