Sys Wars: Next Gen Preview?

[Zilla Man]

Last Monday I attended a large Holiday party here in L.A. thrown for people in the gaming and film industry. Local company employees in attendance: Activision, Square, Sony, Universal Vivendi, Ubisoft, Midway, Naughty Dog, Insomniac, Rockstar, Electronics Boutique to name but a few. Some of these people I knew, others I'd just met that night. There were also a lot of people from smaller development groups as well.

So of course, like the E3 pre/after parties, I needled them for info on the sort of stuff I thought you guys might ask (I actually made a list). You'd be surprised how loose-lipped people get once the alcohol starts flowing.

So, given that, off we go.

EA

As I stated in Waco's thread, the feeling of hatred towrds this company is overwhelming. Strangely enough, the host told me that although EA had been invited (they just opened a huge office last year here in LA, blocks from the beach), nobody from the company showed...

Apparently a driving factor in the NFL exclusivity purchase was the fact that EA panicked because John Madden's contract expires in 2005. And he's not expected to renew it. With Madden 2006 being his last game, they need something besides the name to sell units.

Several reps had stated their intentions to unilaterally not only shun any business/distribution contact with EA but also to band together in an effort to protect each other from being swallowed up (all of them had had design teams "raided" by the company). BTW, Waco's post on the "bid" being false was entirely accurate. According to everyone I talked to there was no bid and the negotiations between the two had been suspected for some time. Because if there had been a bid on NFL rights, guess who could have easily outbid EA? That's right, M$! But even M$ recognizes the advantage of having competition (remember when back in 1997 Bll Gates "invested" Apple Computers with tens of millions of dollars to keep the company going), so it's doubtful they would do it.

Waco was also correct about Ubi Soft considering EA's share acquisition as "hostile". A manager from that company said that they were going to try and "purge" a recent business transaction they'd made with the company. This was a whole week before Waco's assessment, but again, he read his research/companies correctly. They were also considering merging/acquiring development houses to prevent EA from doing so. These "pre-emptive" strategies/temporary alliances should prove interesting.

Zilla Man Predictions: Good sales for Madden 2006 but a bigger backlash from the industry and gamers.

NINTENDO

The general consensus seems to be "the old Gray Mule just ain't what she used to be".

1) They're losing steam not only finacially, but creatively. Everyone from Factor Five to Lucas Arts has abndoned them. A lot of people were pissed because Nintendo had promised that the 3rd party Cube experience would be different from that of the N64. "It sure was a different experience," said an Activision programmer "it was much worse." At which point laughter erupted from the group.Several complained about the proprietary format not only being a pain but it was a mistake because the DVD/gaming combo was a big factor that helped sell PS2 and Xbox.

But as gamers, most of the developers simply felt that the main reason was that the games stopped being fun. Almost nobody liked Mario Sunshine or Luigi's Mansion. They feel that Miyamoto's lost it (with the exception of Pikmin) and that the company needs to be more innovative. Or to quote someone from Midway "All the platforming stuff Nintendo should be doing is being done by Sony with Ratchet & Klank and Jak & Daxter." Another mentioned Capcom and Namco as having better development skills when it came to making games for the Cube.

There was some interest when I mentioned the new Zelda but they all seem to think it's coming for Revolution not the cube.

The shocker was that the most anticipated game everyone seemed the most excited about was Resident Evil 4.

Ironically, there was one company that everyone felt kept the Cube off life support fpr the last year by continuing to publish all their games on the system: Electronic Arts.

2) On the DS - as developers:

There's still a lot of anger from Nintendo making the product as a knee jerk reaction to the PSP. Most of them refererred to it as "Deep Sh-t"; as in what Nintendo will be when Sony releases the PSP in the states. As far as innovation goes, one designer said "Nintendo expects us to be innovative with it but when we ask them to give us examples of innovative games they're developing, they show us games with a two screen gimmick. So that's what I'd expect from most developers, including Nintendo."

the DS - as gamers - A lot of people got them for Christmas but seemed to be underwhelmed by it (I actually got to spend a long time playing with one that night and will post that report later). Most found the stylus annoying. Again their complaint was also against the dated technology. "You can have lack of innovation and good tech; you can have good tech and lack of innovation; but you can't have dated technology and mediocre games."


Revolution

Nintendo was supposed to deliver their Revolution Development kits by the end of the year. Nobody's seen anything yet. I think that unless the company pulls a Kroopa out of their hat, this will probably be Nintendo's last console. I asked if anyone knew anything about the "great innovation" that the company promised this next time out. They hadn't a clue, other than simplifying the games. "It'll probably be something gimmicky like the DS." said someone from Ubi Soft.

3rd party support will also be a problem. Nintendo's got EA, so that'll be a big help for Revolution. But most of the publishers felt they'd been burned too many times by the comapny to give them blind support this next time around.

SONY

PSP

Everyone seemed excited by the PSP. Several had them in their offices. What astonished me is the number of people who weren't even into portable gaming (not all programmers are) who said that they had preordered it as oppossed to the DS. "Well, the difference between the two machines is night and day." said one developer. "If you play Ridge Racer for the DS and then play it for the PSP, you can see the vast difference in the technology. And tha tdefinitely makes a difference in the gameplay factor; moreso in a portable than a console, I think."

Battery life? I got answers from 4 to 6 hours. UMD movies? Some didn't care but others liked the option and were curious.

As far as programming for the PSP. Those that had, stated that it was actually easier to write for than the PS2. Huh? Apparently this is because it uses some CELL technology. They expect the PS3 to be easier to code for as well.

Several stated that the portable playing field will be much different after Christmas of 2005. When I reminded them that Nintendo controlled 95% of the portable gaming market, I was told "Yeah, and they and Sega controlled 95% of the console gaming market too. But look what happened to both companies when Sony stepped in."

My prediction: beacuse of the older demographic (read: people that have more disposable income and that see the DS as a toy) Sony's uphill battle may be easier than expected.

PS3

Kits are expected to be shipped sometime in the Spring. The PSP has whetted the appetite for the new console. Here are some things I was told by several developers separately:

1) It will be backwards compatible.

2) It will have a hard drive. Apparently they've been told to code for it.

3) All the developers I talked to expected the PS3 to be the most powerful of the 3 new consoles - mainly because of the proprietary technology by IBM, Sony, and Toshiba.

4) The PSP actually has will have some sort of connectivity with PS3.

5) It will premiere at E3 2005 and launch in Japan that fall. Expect a U.S. launch in fall of 2006.

SOFTWARE SHOCKER:

You die hard Xbots may want to sit down for this. I queried a woman from Rockstar about the GTA series and this is what I was told. Sony has an "exclusive first look" deal signed with Rockstar regarding the GTA console franchise. This means that Rockstar has to offer Sony the option to buy a GTA game first. If Sony refuses, then they can go to other companies. If Sony says "yes" and signs the game as an exclusive, then it can only go to other platforms when Sony gives it's permission. In other words, GTA 3 and Vice City went to the Xbox because Sony signed off on it. The same with GTA San Andreas.

Now here's where it gets interesting: Rockstar will be making GTA 4 for the next generation. And Sony's exclusivity deal supposedly ends in 2005. So will GT4 be multiplatform? "Probably not. Given Rockstar's longtime relationship with Sony we'll most likely offer them another first-look deal or they may want it as a PS3 exclusive for launch." This sentiment was echoed by a Sony employee who likened the deal to Sony's relationship with Square.

Zilla's prediction: GT4 as a Sony PS3 launch title. If M$ get's it at all, I it'll be a year and a half to two years later.

M$

Still wating on development kits for Xbox Next. The only people who I talked to that had started using the multi-G5 processors was Activision. Everyone else (read: other major publishers) is wisely waiting for the official development kits due in the Spring. This could be a problem. But word is that M$ will be making an announcement either at next month's CES or shortly thereafter regarding Xbox 2.

As far as games go: most thought that letting Oddworld and Pysconauhts go was stupid. But the biggest criticism was the canning of True Fantasy Live. "An online RPG would have boosted sales immeasurably, given them inroads to Japanese gamers, and it would have added a lot of subscribers to Xbox Live."

Other quotes:

"Because MS will most likely not have the most powerful console this generation (especially if they launch in 2005), they can't afford to rely on specs alone to boost their sales. It'll be even more about the games this time around."

"Shane Kim needs to get on the stick and start being more innovative with his gaming choices. Take Sony's Playstation lead and acquire some Japanese developers."

Here's what they say M$ has told them about Xbox 2 (either directly or by surmising it from their coding instructions).

1) Hard Drive

2) Backwards compatible.

3) Smaller, more compact design.

Zilla's Comment: Hopefully some RPG exclusives for the console and fewer PC ports as M$ woos the Japanese crowd. If they launch in 2005 they may be going too early. But if they wait for 2006 then they'll go head to head with Sony. Not an easy choice. Like Gaddy, I feel that the Xbox had and missed a lot of potential. Here's hoping they get more right next time.

When it came to the 3 companies, everyone seemed to agree that next year was too soon to start the next generation. They think that due to next gen sales will be slower for everyone - but particularly for whomever launches first.

Xbox vs. Gamecube Until The End of The Year...

For P.O.D.:

Talked with an Elecronics Boutique District manager and asked him what was selling. He said that both PS2's and Xboxes were both flying off the shelves. The DS? Selling fairly well but expect a large dropoff after Christmas. He also said that "Nintendo is doling them out to us in small shipments of 50 - aparently to keep the demand up." How shocking!

Well, in my shopping spree this weekend I visited 4 EB's in the LA area run by people I know and they all told me the same thing: sold out of PS2's and Xboxes, but having trouble moving their Gamecubes. Two of them also told me that people are constantly asking for the PSP. "Expect a lot of DS trade-ins come next Spring."

Ditto for 2 of the Best Buys I was in: neither had either console.

Apparently the PS2 redesign has consumers stoked. Expect M$ to follow suit. Unlike Nintendo, Sony is shipping as many units as they can and are still coming up short. They expect the same thing to happen with PSP.

[Gadfly2317]

Great post Zilla. Thanks for taking the time to write all that.

The only thing in the whole piece that confused me was developers not being able to think of anything interesting to do with the dual screen or the interface. I'm not a developer and I've posted tons of ideas I'd love to see that would vasty improve the experience of several genres of games. Yet no one can think of anything except gimmicks? This is a dissapointing place for the the industry to be in--and that includes Nintendo if they are demoing nothing but "gimmicks" that aren't creative or fun. I fully understand the excitement people feel about the PsP, but I feel like an extraterrestrial here in regards to what can be done game-wise with the DS.

I loved the stuff about EA being viewed as an industry pariah. Good!

I also don't understand the statement "nintendo needs to be more innovative" and that means they should be doing "platform stuff" like Jak and Daxter. Again, am I freaking alien here? I liked Jak and Daxter, but I picked it up and it was like Mario 64 in everyway. I liked some of the vehicle action, but there were aspects of that in Sunshine as well, and maybe I'm also alone in thinking the physics of the waterpak and the four nozzles added an interesting twist, even though it was ridiculed as "Mario 64 + squirt gun." Jak was Mario 64 + nothing, right down to the butt stomp and Shine Sprites (pre-cursor orbs) So the industry thinks Nintendo would be innovative if they were still pumping out platformers (inserting new weird and different stupid thing to collect?)

Again, I love the post, and I know I'm nintendo biased--I found Luigi's Mansion to be a fun bit of fluff even, for about 8 hours. Nintendo is not without flaws and much of what is said of Nintendo is true, and I agree about Shigeru even, he's just one guy, and he's getting old. It's like how rock stars never make as good music as they did when they were young. The industry needs another guy like him, but if there were another young Shig, do current industry values and practices provide an environment for that kind of creativity to be funded in a big way, and not just put out on the cheap like Katamari Damacy?

I think the most interesting thing about your post and its insider view is that it tells us a lot about the future. The business views, and the knowledge about equipment and contracts is all useful, but I don't really trust executives and insiders that much regarding their judgement on what equals creativity, innovation, and even what the industry should be doing. To get back to music analogies, I think of one of my favorite bands, Wilco, and how their record company dumped them and refused to put out Yankee Hotel Foxtrot because they didn't like it, thought it "was unmarketable" and had "no radio singles." Album turned out to be the most critically aclaimed album of the year, with huge sales, once someone grew some balls and put it out.

So all I'm saying, when you get some snide Ubisoft guy knocking something as "gimmicky like the DS" I still trust my insticts as a gaming fan more. I have found myself in the position of being totally alienated from mainstream music--I can't even listen to the radio anymore, and I used to love radio-pop; I'm not an intentionally obscure. I find myself as a gamer being alienated more and more by what passes for mainstream gaming, what EA, and Ubisoft and Universal Midway and Rockstar are shovelling out. They can all posture at a party, drink in hand, and knock someone elses innovation as "gimmicky" but those companies ought to put up or shut up. Take Rockstar, the GTA series was its one innovative idea, and they and everyone else have milked it to death, and everything else Rockstar has done is crap.

When it comes to innovation in gaming, its a mostly barren landscape out there, and one reason people dis Nintendo is the typical vying to replace the aging king--the party sounded like Rocky 5, where the kid turns on Rocky and tries to beat the crap out of him. No other single company has done so much for the gaming industry as Nintendo has. I am more than happy to concede that Nintendo is not the company it once was, but no single company at that party has stepped up and become the company Nintendo once was, either.

[Brendon]

Ummmmmm

Can I possibly be the only one that noticed that almost all the companies you listed are strongly affiliated with the Sony brand. Of course they'll be talking up their own wigs. As an animator, everyone from the game industry I've talked to lives in a bubble, they get all their information from sources in their own company.

Thinking forward I do see a lot of people seeing the PSP's graphics and maybe trading their DS in, but I also see them returning again utterly frustrated and bewildered to trade back. It's just not viable as a real portable gaming device, anyone who can't see that is a fool. And if you don't intend to use it as a portable, step forward so I can smack you.

finally, Stores can't sell Cubes anymore simply because anyone who was going to get one already has it, Sony unleashed a smaller helping of the uglyest console ever to reel in the perpetually stupid (read, mainstream) while Halo 2 is moving Xboxes like nothing ever before.

Oh yes, and anyone who buys EA games on the Cube obviously forgot why they got it in the first place.

[The Prince of Darkness]

Now that's a good post man! Thanks for addressing my post from way back. Of course, it is not really a surprise considering the console sales numbers have pretty much told the tale for us. As far as system selling games go in the Xbox/GC battle it is really simple at this point:

Xbox---1
GC---0

That is really all that you need to know;) It's a soccer score.

Btw I do have a question that you may know the answer to but did not address in the post. The burning question in my mind is if there is a GTA in the works for the PsP. Come on and bring me some Xmas cheer on that one.

[theWacoKid]

Now that's a good post man! Thanks for addressing my post from way back. Of course, it is not really a surprise considering the console sales numbers have pretty much told the tale for us. As far as system selling games go in the Xbox/GC battle it is really simple at this point:

Xbox---1
GC---0

That is really all that you need to know;) It's a soccer score.

Btw I do have a question that you may know the answer to but did not address in the post. The burning question in my mind is if there is a GTA in the works for the PsP. Come on and bring me some Xmas cheer on that one.

Rockstar has said they'll be bringing over two games to the psp but didn't say which. My bets are gta and a midnight club game. They did a gta game for the gba, so a psp version would seem a lock.

[theWacoKid]

And not just because these guys make me look good. EA has been pursuing licences left and right, snapping up everything in sight. They've bought out companies, games, middleware, anything that isn't nailed down. They're an effin monster, out of control, and their quality has seriously declined this year, so they'll be more acquisition minded than normal. If you can't compete, buy em out.

According to arstechnica, which is a well-respected non rumor, non bs tech site, developers have already received ps3 development kits. They reported this about a month back and in a self-admitted highly unusual move for them, were soliciting feedback from developers as to how the dev kits were working out.

Gotta laugh, they all think the next zelda's coming out for the revolution, I've been saying as much. Their most anitcipated game for the cube is RE4. This is the only reason right now, why I'm still holding on to my cube. Man, are we talking sympatico or what.

I'm not sure how M$ is going to pull this off, they can't get games out on time, they just issued yet another delay for Forza, now its april. M$ must think launching a new console is like launching the next version of windoze, they'll all buy it, whenever you release it. You have to wonder, have they even finalized their specs. I know more about the ps3 right now than I do about xbox next. If developers are working under the assumption that xbox next is shipping in late 2005 and M$ blows the launch, I'd say their hopes of beating sony just went out the door. I have serious questions in their ability to launch a brand new console with new tech in a timely manner. The old xbox was slapped together with off-the-shelf-parts using exsiting technology. There wasn't a whole lot you had to troubleshoot, but xbox 2 is a different beast, from the parts supposedlly being used to ms's vaunted XNA development tools. Is any of this stuff even close to being ready for prime time.

If sony's going to launch in the fall in japan, I can't see them waiting till fall of next year for NA. The market's too big and too important for sony. The big question, is all this high tech in place for sony for a fall launch. Imo, doubtful, but it's hard to say. I haven't read of any delays with the cell, that seems to be moving along. The nvidia deal indicates they've been on the job for the past two years in secret. Will blu-ray be ready and affordable for a mass market launch. Can sony handle the inevitable losses they'll incur with both the psp and ps3? Losses on two systesm is a big nut to swallow, even for sony. The ps3 might be too high tech for its own good. All that power just to play games? Then again, the ps3 will do more than just play games. I'd really like to see how sony is going to address the online space with ps3.

Shane Kim needs to go, you don't let oddworld and psychonauts go and keep Blnx 2 and that awful cover art around. What'd Blinx 2 sell anyway, a couple thousand copies, if lucky. I feel sorry for oddworld, did they pick a bad time to be distributed by EA or what?

As far as the DS goes, I'm going to point something out that backs up the developers viewing the DS as dated technology. The original bxw gb had a 2.7" screen, I believe with a res of 240x160. Fast forward more than a decade, and nintendo has added color but still has poor screen illumination, the display size has mushroomed to 3.0" and the res is now a scintillating 256x192. WOW!! All that extra goodness and how many years did it take them. These aren't baby steps. I've seen snails move faster than this clip in supposed improvements. The screens are too damn small, that stylus is too damn small. Kids will eat up the DS, at least for a while. When the touch screen becomes tiresome after a while and the ennui sets in, then we'll see a different story.

The funny thing about sony and that big psp screen, is that for sony, this was the absolute minumum size they had in mind for the psp. They had absolutely no thoughts of going smaller than this size.

The psp uses standard usb 2.0, the ps2 uses usb 1.1 and I fully expect the ps3 to use usb as well. I also expect the ps3 will be able to use mem sticks like the duo pro.

I don't think M$ will redesign the current xbox. If xbox next is backwards compatible, they'll just phase out the current xbox, which is still a money drain for them.

Always an enjoyable read, I'd love to pat myself on the back for being such a clairvoyant, but the views I take I think are viewed in a similar light by a vast concensus of parties out there. What I state is pretty self-evident. Little of what I'm reading comes as a suprise.

For developers, more power, a higher res screen, a far greater media capacity,more memory, gee, what system do I want to develop for. The psp will also provide simply a better chance at making money. You dont' have to continuously worry about slanting your products for nintendo's notoriously loyal and fickle fanbase.

Good work, Zilla, keep it up.

[Glockstar]

Very good stuff, ZM.

My post/reply is just directed to the following though:


DS
There's still a lot of anger from Nintendo making the product as a knee jerk reaction to the PSP. Most of them refererred to it as "Deep Sh-t"; as in what Nintendo will be when Sony releases the PSP in the states. As far as innovation goes, one designer said "Nintendo expects us to be innovative with it but when we ask them to give us examples of innovative games they're developing, they show us games with a two screen gimmick. So that's what I'd expect from most developers, including Nintendo."


Revolution
Nintendo was supposed to deliver their Revolution Development kits by the end of the year. Nobody's seen anything yet. I think that unless the company pulls a Kroopa out of their hat, this will probably be Nintendo's last console.

SOFTWARE SHOCKER:
I queried a woman from Rockstar about the GTA series and this is what I was told. Sony has an "exclusive first look" deal signed with Rockstar regarding the GTA console franchise. This means that Rockstar has to offer Sony the option to buy a GTA game first. If Sony refuses, then they can go to other companies. If Sony says "yes" and signs the game as an exclusive, then it can only go to other platforms when Sony gives it's permission. In other words, GTA 3 and Vice City went to the Xbox because Sony signed off on it. The same with GTA San Andreas.


M$
Still wating on development kits for Xbox Next. The only people who I talked to that had started using the multi-G5 processors was Activision. Everyone else (read: other major publishers) is wisely waiting for the official development kits due in the Spring. This could be a problem. But word is that M$ will be making an announcement either at next month's CES or shortly thereafter regarding Xbox 2.

As far as games go: most thought that letting Oddworld and Pysconauhts go was stupid.


The DS - and it's quick release - was a bit of a knee-jerk reaction by Nintendo in response to Sony announcing that they were entering the handheld market. But what's to get "angry" about?

When you say that "this will probably be Nintendo's last console", do you mean the GC or the Revolution? I might agree with you, if you say the GC. Though they originally said that they wouldn't get left behind next time, it's pretty obvious that they've changed their tune. They're also being more straight forward than they've ever been, as they've basically said that they don't want to play this anymore. So it's not just that they're going to come out with theirs after everybody else, but they might not come out with a new console at all. Even if they do follow thru with this "Revolution" it will be so radically different from what anybody else is doing that it will pretty much be in it's own market.

As far as your conversation with little miss Rockstar there, are you sure you didn't have too much to drink yourself? I think you've taken (or put) "exclusive first look", "permission", and "sign off on", out of context. Sorry bud, but this "explanation" of yours (hers?) just doesn't make any sense.

Still waiting for those XBox Next development kits, eh? And what does that tell you. I'm sorry, but anybody who thinks that the XBox Next is still coming out sometime in the next 12 months is a fool. You all have been reading about the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray battle right? Microsoft is in a far more difficult position than Sony is with regards to this. Neither of these formats are proprietary to MS. While Blu-Ray have to - but it's the smart thing to do. (Or, they could follow Nintendo and take a different path entirely. :p )

Nobody sees the dumping of Oddworld Stranger or Psychonauts for the shrewd business move that they were eh? The XBox is still getting the games! But now, without any risk (or reward) to MS. That's smart. (Albeit a little cold-hearted.)

[The Prince of Darkness]

Rockstar has said they'll be bringing over two games to the psp but didn't say which. My bets are gta and a midnight club game. They did a gta game for the gba, so a psp version would seem a lock.

Well that would certainly be cool. I guess the better question would be if it would be any good. I mean those games are huge. Could they even be duplicated on PsP?

[trebor]

Videogame gossip stuff.

I know I'm beating a dead horse with trying to logically dispute these companies, but please.

Midway is coming out with yet another Mortal Kombat. What...is that the 6th or 7th version of that?

Rockstar just pumped out the 5th GTA game.

Ubisoft's big holiday game is a sequel to a remake of a 20 year old title, Prince of Persia.

Square just put out Final Fantasy 11 and is working on Final Fantasy 12 as we speak.

Activisions big guns are a 5th Tony Hawk title and a slew of movie franchises. Plus a port of a older PC title, Call of Duty.

Naughty Dog just put out the 3rd sequel to the Jak series and still pumps out mediocre Crash Bandicoot titles.

So please, enough already with the "Nintendo just does sequels and rehashes"...seriously, there is such things as being contradictory and just outright hypocritical.

[Deathstroke]

Naughty Dog doesn't do Crash Bandicoot anymore. They sold those rights a long long time ago.

[Gadfly2317]

When you say that "this will probably be Nintendo's last console", do you mean the GC or the Revolution? I might agree with you, if you say the GC. Though they originally said that they wouldn't get left behind next time, it's pretty obvious that they've changed their tune. They're also being more straight forward than they've ever been, as they've basically said that they don't want to play this anymore. So it's not just that they're going to come out with theirs after everybody else, but they might not come out with a new console at all. Even if they do follow thru with this "Revolution" it will be so radically different from what anybody else is doing that it will pretty much be in it's own market.

.)
I've heard people talk about nintendo going third party, but with who? Sony the hated? MS the new American Usurper?

It's been floated that what would it be like if EA wanted to enter the console bus and kept all its franchises and clout. Wouldn't that be weird to see "The EA Revolution, by Nintendo.

Just a weird thought. Wonder what that would do to the industry, for EA, for Nintendo, for everyone. Third parties would pretty much have to support that, and so would the Nintendo fans. And if EA got top billing (and nintendo built the hardware) than EA has all those royalty fees as a console manufactuer (and nintendo could get a better royalty rate as the preferenital second or first party developer.)

Sure would be one way to kick MS and Sony in the Balls, and why should EA (which apparently views itself as an unstoppable beast) continue to bend to the demands of these console makers when it could just come right in with its own console and massive stable of exclusives.

[Zilla Man]

Very good stuff, ZM.

My post/reply is just directed to the following though:



The DS - and it's quick release - was a bit of a knee-jerk reaction by Nintendo in response to Sony announcing that they were entering the handheld market. But what's to get "angry" about?

When you say that "this will probably be Nintendo's last console", do you mean the GC or the Revolution? I might agree with you, if you say the GC. Though they originally said that they wouldn't get left behind next time, it's pretty obvious that they've changed their tune. They're also being more straight forward than they've ever been, as they've basically said that they don't want to play this anymore. So it's not just that they're going to come out with theirs after everybody else, but they might not come out with a new console at all. Even if they do follow thru with this "Revolution" it will be so radically different from what anybody else is doing that it will pretty much be in it's own market.

As far as your conversation with little miss Rockstar there, are you sure you didn't have too much to drink yourself? I think you've taken (or put) "exclusive first look", "permission", and "sign off on", out of context. Sorry bud, but this "explanation" of yours (hers?) just doesn't make any sense.

Still waiting for those XBox Next development kits, eh? And what does that tell you. I'm sorry, but anybody who thinks that the XBox Next is still coming out sometime in the next 12 months is a fool. You all have been reading about the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray battle right? Microsoft is in a far more difficult position than Sony is with regards to this. Neither of these formats are proprietary to MS. While Blu-Ray have to - but it's the smart thing to do. (Or, they could follow Nintendo and take a different path entirely. :p )

Nobody sees the dumping of Oddworld Stranger or Psychonauts for the shrewd business move that they were eh? The XBox is still getting the games! But now, without any risk (or reward) to MS. That's smart. (Albeit a little cold-hearted.)

Hey, Glocky. Good post/questions. I'll address them one at a time.

1) The "anger" at the Nintendo DS is pretty simple. Do you remember the thread I posted when Nintendo announced it earlier this year?

Standard prodedure for all gaming platforms, whether they be consoles or portables is the following: after the specs are locked down, schematics are taken to the developers. After signing a non-disclosure agreement, development kits are shipped. Keep in mind this is usually six months to a year before the public is told the specs. Strangely enough, when a company releases console specs to the developers, their rivals usually get a hold of them so nothing is considered that top secret.

But Nintendo didn't do that. They simply announced the DS to the public, while the publishers literally did not know about it. As a result, panic ensued. It takes time, resources, energy, and $ to develop a game/learn about hardware. The companies were caught unawares and lost out on at least six months of development/research time. As a result, resources were diverted from other platforms. In the end, the gamer loses because they get a rushed product.

Did anybody hear/read the incident of when Sony released the Playstation specs? The head of Sega marched into the Saturn lab and loudly berated the technicians for allowing a new company to get the jump on them. A 3D chip was hastily installed into the predominantly 2D architecture. Then the machine was rushed to beat the Playstationto market - the E3 surprise launch announcement in May 1995. The result? Glitchy launch titles, pissed off developers who were caught by surprise, and a machine that was nearly impossible for developers to program well (due to the last - minute addition of the 3D chip).

After dealking with Nintendo arrogance and direspect this was just salt in the wounds.
3rd party publishers were pissed because they got taken completely by surprise.

2) Yeah, apparently everyone got a memo/announcement from M$ hinting at official Xbox 2 kits by December. Now their dev kit queries are answered by "we should have an announcement soon/in the Spring."

Your right about M$ being in a difficult position. Sony is definitely putting Blu-Ray in PS3. I'm really excited to see what M$ does next. My contacts up there keep telling me that they've "heard nothing" about Xbox 2 other than the stuff I relayed to you earlier.

3) Rockstar. Actually, Glocky, deals like that aren't unheard of in the videogame industry. Take Square for example. Given that Sony owns about 40% interest in Square, there were some serious negotiations and $'s paid to Sony to release Final Fantasy Chrystal Chronicles on the Cube and the GBA. Trust me, when I say that you will never see a Final Fantasy on the Cube or the Xbox.

But, hey, I totally understand your skepticism/confusion. I think it did make more sense after several apple martinis! :D

This girl was Scottish (from Rockstar North), works closely with Sam Houser and had flown out here to meet with Sony about PSP stuff. Maybe I should elaborate some more on what else she said.

Apparently, GTA 4 is so ambitious that Houser feels that even next gen consoles might stifle his "vision". He feels that one console has best technology he needs to satisfy the game's requirements: you guessed it - CELL. She said that Houser is "fascinated" with CELL technology and it's potential for his game. Given that and that Sony is ready to make him an offer to lock up the rights, and while anything could happen, he's really excited about the PS3 (and the PSP).

Now, understand that all of this is heresay and even if it is true, nothing is set in stone and Houser could be talking out his a$$! :p Also, who knows what the big M$ might come up with? Things are gonna get real interesting the next 12 months.

4) You know, I'd assumed that they were talking about Revolution being the big N's last console. Most agreed that it was ironically tragic that the Cube was dying because of the three consoles' fall/holiday lineup, they feel the Cube has the best/most diverse software selection these last six months... And you're absolutely correct about the Revolution being its own niche product. The question is "how?" and "Will that be enough to compete?"

Oh and as if you didn't already have enough reason to hate EA: I was talking with a guy from Black Ops who mentioned that a co-worker of his was working on a PS2 Road Rash at EA but it got cancelled! I'll try and find out more -he may be talking about a previous one than the one that the guy at E3 told me about. But remember, this is EA...

[Pandarbock]

Zillaman this isn't a rant a or me being touchy or anything but in regards to their complaints about DS, could you maybe ask these "developer friends" next time you go to one of these shin digs why alot of them pissed and moaned pre-ps2 launch about sony's lack of forth coming understandable documentation and how it was so hard to developer for the new platform that used this new chip that promised so much potential and yet they fought with it to get lackluster results at first, and then ask them why all that doesn't matter now?

[Zilla Man]

And not just because these guys make me look good. EA has been pursuing licences left and right, snapping up everything in sight. They've bought out companies, games, middleware, anything that isn't nailed down. They're an effin monster, out of control, and their quality has seriously declined this year, so they'll be more acquisition minded than normal. If you can't compete, buy em out.

According to arstechnica, which is a well-respected non rumor, non bs tech site, developers have already received ps3 development kits. They reported this about a month back and in a self-admitted highly unusual move for them, were soliciting feedback from developers as to how the dev kits were working out.

Gotta laugh, they all think the next zelda's coming out for the revolution, I've been saying as much. Their most anitcipated game for the cube is RE4. This is the only reason right now, why I'm still holding on to my cube. Man, are we talking sympatico or what.

I'm not sure how M$ is going to pull this off, they can't get games out on time, they just issued yet another delay for Forza, now its april. M$ must think launching a new console is like launching the next version of windoze, they'll all buy it, whenever you release it. You have to wonder, have they even finalized their specs. I know more about the ps3 right now than I do about xbox next. If developers are working under the assumption that xbox next is shipping in late 2005 and M$ blows the launch, I'd say their hopes of beating sony just went out the door. I have serious questions in their ability to launch a brand new console with new tech in a timely manner. The old xbox was slapped together with off-the-shelf-parts using exsiting technology. There wasn't a whole lot you had to troubleshoot, but xbox 2 is a different beast, from the parts supposedlly being used to ms's vaunted XNA development tools. Is any of this stuff even close to being ready for prime time.

If sony's going to launch in the fall in japan, I can't see them waiting till fall of next year for NA. The market's too big and too important for sony. The big question, is all this high tech in place for sony for a fall launch. Imo, doubtful, but it's hard to say. I haven't read of any delays with the cell, that seems to be moving along. The nvidia deal indicates they've been on the job for the past two years in secret. Will blu-ray be ready and affordable for a mass market launch. Can sony handle the inevitable losses they'll incur with both the psp and ps3? Losses on two systesm is a big nut to swallow, even for sony. The ps3 might be too high tech for its own good. All that power just to play games? Then again, the ps3 will do more than just play games. I'd really like to see how sony is going to address the online space with ps3.

Shane Kim needs to go, you don't let oddworld and psychonauts go and keep Blnx 2 and that awful cover art around. What'd Blinx 2 sell anyway, a couple thousand copies, if lucky. I feel sorry for oddworld, did they pick a bad time to be distributed by EA or what?

As far as the DS goes, I'm going to point something out that backs up the developers viewing the DS as dated technology. The original bxw gb had a 2.7" screen, I believe with a res of 240x160. Fast forward more than a decade, and nintendo has added color but still has poor screen illumination, the display size has mushroomed to 3.0" and the res is now a scintillating 256x192. WOW!! All that extra goodness and how many years did it take them. These aren't baby steps. I've seen snails move faster than this clip in supposed improvements. The screens are too damn small, that stylus is too damn small. Kids will eat up the DS, at least for a while. When the touch screen becomes tiresome after a while and the ennui sets in, then we'll see a different story.

The funny thing about sony and that big psp screen, is that for sony, this was the absolute minumum size they had in mind for the psp. They had absolutely no thoughts of going smaller than this size.

The psp uses standard usb 2.0, the ps2 uses usb 1.1 and I fully expect the ps3 to use usb as well. I also expect the ps3 will be able to use mem sticks like the duo pro.

I don't think M$ will redesign the current xbox. If xbox next is backwards compatible, they'll just phase out the current xbox, which is still a money drain for them.

Always an enjoyable read, I'd love to pat myself on the back for being such a clairvoyant, but the views I take I think are viewed in a similar light by a vast concensus of parties out there. What I state is pretty self-evident. Little of what I'm reading comes as a suprise.

For developers, more power, a higher res screen, a far greater media capacity,more memory, gee, what system do I want to develop for. The psp will also provide simply a better chance at making money. You dont' have to continuously worry about slanting your products for nintendo's notoriously loyal and fickle fanbase.

Good work, Zilla, keep it up.

Well, Waco, I gotta say that IMO, you and Deathstroke seem to be the two who've really seem to tap into the pulse of what's going on in gaming. Your opinions/predictions are based more on fact/information then bias. Which is why their always an informative and a delight to read. :D

As for those that would flame you, simply because you back up your opinions with facts, eff 'em! Don't let their venom prevent you from posting...

Thanks for the artstechnica heads up. I can't wait to check it out. Not all the people I talked to were execs, but they did mention that security was tighter for the PS3 than it was for the PS2, so it's very possible that their superiors have the kits but are still working out the kinks before sharing it with underlings. The other possibility is that I'll have to use more alcohol on them next time! ;)

Also, yeah, GTA on the PSP! When the rockstar chick mentioned that she was in town for Sony and the PSP, it didn't even cross my mind. Talk about another nail in the DS coffin...

Yeah, the Sony launch info is curious. You know that's the same pattern that they used on the original Playstation and the PS2: E3, Japan that fall, the U.S. the following year. Maybe Sony is giving them this as a smokescreen or something? I dunno. You do bring up some good points.

From what I know, both Sony and M$ are going to be pushing their next consoles as "home entertainment center"; i.e. set top boxes. Last generation it was DVD, this next one might just be Tivo. We'll have to see. Either way, BluRay is definitely a feather in Sony's cap. The developers always love it when they have more space. But you're right about them overdoing the high tech. Now that gaming consoles are mainstream, they have to appeal to the tech heads and gamers.

Your previously posted rants about the PSP are right on target. Just mentioning the name made people's faces light up.I don't think I'd ever seen developer so excited about a product - and I've attended every E3 since it's inception (except 1997/98 in Atlanta) - so that's saying a lot! Again, the appeal goes waaay beyond games to most people. I think Nintendo (and the gaming community in general) has underestimate it's appeal.

BTW, what is the dual pro? And are those the same memory sticks used by the PSP and Computers? I do think that PS3 will have a hard drive as it's mass storage system though.

As far as M$ is concerned, I don't know what's going on. The contacts I have there have been awfully quiet lately. The last informative email I got was a rant about the stupidity of cancelling True Fantasy Online. When I asked about Kim they said that they didn't see him as much as his predecessor but he seemed to be the type that didn't make waves. I'm not so sure that's a good thing. I wonderjust how much control he and Peter Moore (whom I do respect) have over the gaming division. Personally, I think it's stupid to have a console heavily based on online gaming but 4 years into it's cycle not have an online RPG... :rolleyes:

I've yet to hear anything specific about XNA. Hell, we know more about CELL and the PS3 GPU than we do XNA! I expect that it'll be unveiled at E3, but the few developers I talked to seemed to think that making games easir to port from the PC to the Xbox 2 wasn't necesarily a good thing. This could be M$ Acilles heel.

Thanks again for the PS3 info.

[AOE Enforcer]

Here is my take on everything going on right now, by company and/or system:

Sony: Sony will be leaving this generation of hardware in a very good position-#1. Having a lock on the SquareEnix titles, 1st dibs on the GTA's and many talented in-house developers coupled with pretty much the best 3rd party support and Sony will enter the next gen wars with all guns blazing. If Sony can get the middleware tools for PS3 development ironed out and "easy-to-use", we could possibly see some kick-ass software from the get-go. Unfortunately, new technology offers new headaches. I have the gut feeling that PS3 will be difficult to develop for in the beginning much as the PS2 was and will cause headaches for developers.

On the PSP side, I see it kicking the DS's ass to the curb literally. I've played the DS for a few hours both on an in-store demo station and my cousin's system and can honestly say-this system sucks. Mario 64 DS is ass. This game needs analog control and doesn't have it. Get ready for cheap deaths. Using the stylus to try and pan your view in Metroid Prime Hunters is crap. Get ready for the most cramped your hands have ever felt. To me, the DS is ugly, poorly designed and in all honesty-junk. Nintendo jumped the gun, shot it out into the stores and tried to play cool when in reality, they are piss-scared of the PSP.

I don't buy the crap that Nintendo-faithfuls are spewing about the PSP. It has decent battery life, rechargable at that. The screen is not only big, it's beautiful. It has tons of space for game data, is compact, has an analog stick and the graphics look comparable to many 128-bit console titles. For those who say nobody will spend the money for it, how do you figure that when it comes in at only $35.00 more than the DS at launch? Not to mention Sony's reputation among consumers in the console business. When a potential customer walks into a store and sees a PSP and a DS sitting side by side, which do you think they would rather have? This brings us to...

Nintendo: Nintendo really needs to hang it up on the hardware side. Sales of Nintendo consoles have steadily dropped with each generation. the NES sold around 80 million systems. The SNES sold around 40 million. The N64 came in at around 20 million the the Gamecube won't even make those numbers. Nintendo needs to concentrate on the software-an area where they were always #1 but now in this generation, have fallen behind. Once the king of RPG's, racing titles, fighters, action & adventure titles and just about everything else, Nintendo is now playing second fiddle to the Xbox and PS2. The Naughty Dog & Insomniac Jak & Ratchet titles aren't any more innovative than Nintendo's own platformers, but they just excel and push the series forward. Put simply-they are more fun. Gran Turismo on the PS2, Project Gotham on the Xbox...the racing genre has all but abandoned Nintendo. RPG's are pretty much a lock on the PS2 and after that, the next best RPG's (or the best depending on your POV) fall on the Xbox with Morrowind, KOTOR, etc.

Nintendo ditching the A&B buttons and the d-pad with the Revolution? Who cares. Sony ditched the A&B buttons from the get-go. They have X, Circle,Square and Triangle. This is just more Nintendo-talk to try and get people excited about their next product. I've supported Nintendo with: NES, SNES, N64, Gamecube, GameBoy and GameBoy Advance. No longer. Nintendo will need to prove themselves through action before I buy another Nintendo product. That goes for games or hardware. I though Metroid Prime 2 would be great. Instead, 10 minutes in I found myself groaning and turning the damn system off. What is the chance that for the millionth time in a Metroid title, you start the game out fully-powered with all of your weapons only to sustain a little injury in a "cut-scene" and lose all of your powers? Gee, it must be pretty good because that is exactly what happens yet again in Metroid Prime 2! Though the game may be great, I have yet to pick it back up and play it again.

Microsoft: Microsoft has had a very bumpy ride of the last several years since entereing the console business. They mistakenly believed that having more powerful hardware would automatically give them the edge. They were wrong. They learned the hard way that games are what sell systems. Without a doubt in my mind, if not for Halo-the Xbox would have been gone within the first year. Buying Bungie was one of the smartest moves Microsoft has ever made. Buying Rare...well, the jury's still out on that one for me. Microsoft has also shown that they are willing to give developers the time they need to make their games. One look at great games like Crimson Skies and MechAssault tells you that. They have also given Rare alot of room and time to make their titles and polish them up. I'm willing to wager that Ghoulie's poor design and release will not be earning an encore with Conker or any other Rare titles. I may be wrong, but I have hope. On the downside, Microsoft ditched Oddworld and Psychonauts while retaining Blinx 2. That was F'n stupid IMO.

Microsoft has a chance with the next system to go head-to-head with Sony. They have managed to accumulate a great & loyal gaming audience. Even Nintendo die-hards admit that there is a "buzz" about the Xbox that gets gamers talking. If they release with similar capabilities to the PS2, have the EA games on board (unfortunately..this matters to the gaming masses) and launch with a killer-app or 3, they may have a chance. Another few points that may make-or-break Microsoft is whether the Xbox2 is A) Backwards compatible and B) includes a hard drive. These items are a must. Anything less would be considered both inferior to the PS3 and a step back from the Xbox.

In closing:

Sony: They have the greatest chance for success. They have incredible momentum going into the next generation, killer developers and killer exclusives to back them up. If Sony treats the developers right and iron out middleware development tools for game creation, Sony could be the champ 3 times running. On the other hand, if they don't work with the 3rd parties-they could find themselves losing some momentum to Microsoft. On the PSP side, they will conquer Nintendo's DS with ease IMO. Nintendo's final stronghold of handheld dominance will come to an end within the PSP's lifecycle.

Nintendo: Nintendo's chances for success with the Revolution are even slimmer than the hopes they had in the beginning days of the Gamecube. Stubbornness and arogance has led them to this point. 3rd parties burned by Nintendo's practices have two viable alternatives with Sony and Microsoft. Everything Nintendo did this generation has pretty much backfired on them. The small discs pissed off developers. The lack of DVD playback cost them sales and mindshare with consumers. Silicon Knights headed for the hills after being forced to make a MGS remake. LucasArts and Factor 5 are moving on to greener pastures. Rare-the one company that kept Nintendo afloat with the N64-has flown the coup for "greener" grass with the Xbox and Microsoft. The Capcom deal had completely fallen through with the only true exclusive being the abysmal P.N.03. Nintendo had the chance to possibly make a big exclusive deal with Sega and failed to do so. The DS is a knee-jerk reaction to the PSP and is complete and utter garbage. Every stumble Nintendo has made has been their own fault. Nothing they can or would do at this point will change their fate. The Revolution will be their last system.

Microsoft: Microsoft both stumbled and blew me away this generation. Halo came out of nowhere and blew gamers away. Halo 2 continues that tradition and sold an ungodly amount in the first month of release. Great exclusives and awesome support from Tecmo's Team Ninja have given me many happy gaming moments. The HDD was an excellent idea and not having to buy a memory card was nice. Custom soundtracks didn't hurt and downloadable add-ons and extra were alot of fun. Microsoft came out of nowhere and became the #2 system this generation. They have a chance to better themselves next time out and I believe they will use everything they have learned from the Xbox to advance. I predict a highly-polished Perfect Dark Zero as the main focus for Xbox2's launch with Halo 3 arriving the same day as the PS3 launch. That's just my guess though.

For me, both the PS3 and Xbox2 are on my list as well as the PSP. Though I often criticize Sony, I do love their products and have high-hopes for their continued success. My PC is a Sony VAIO, my HDTV is a Sony as is my surround system and progressive-scan 5-disc DVD player. I just think it's time for Nintendo to shut up, suck it up and concentrate on making a software comeback and stop releasing sub-par systems.

[Pandarbock]

For me, both the PS3 and Xbox2 are on my list as well as the PSP. Though I often criticize Sony, I do love their products and have high-hopes for their continued success. My PC is a Sony VAIO, my HDTV is a Sony as is my surround system and progressive-scan 5-disc DVD player. I just think it's time for Nintendo to shut up, suck it up and concentrate on making a software comeback and stop releasing sub-par systems.

Ok just taking a jab here for ****s and giggles but.... here it goes, I guess you don't have a problem however, buying subpar over priced electronics though.

[theWacoKid]

Zilla, the mem sticks the psp uses are the pro duo line, they're half the physical size of the standard mem sticks. We're talking small here.

I checked arstechnica and I can't even find that article on the ps3 development kits anymore. Maybe some sony staffer got to them. What's suprising to me is how vehemently sony denied way back in 2003 when a story broke about sony going to nvidia for the graphics chip. They labelled it back then as a ridiculous suggestion and it was all true. Although the chip will be based on geforce technology, it's not designed for the pc market at all.

Here's a recent article from www.1up.com.

Nvidia: PlayStation 3 GPU In 2005
Although a space like this always bears watching.

By David Smith

Nvidia's contribution to Sony's next game console should be ready by the end of 2005, CEO Jen-Hsun Huang indicated yesterday. While the bulk of his recent "fireside chat" with investment firm Morgan Stanley covered the bigger picture of Nvidia's business, Huang filled in a few more details regarding the chipmaker's collaboration with Sony.

Though it's designed to work in concert with the Cell processor, developed by Sony and IBM, the GPU for the new console is derived from Nvidia's technology. "It's based on the next generation GPU technology," Huang said, "and our expectation is to try and put it into production this year."

Later, he reiterated that point -- "I have every expectation that we will be able to see final production silicon later on in the year."

Huang added that a sizable team is at work on the console-specific implementation of the new hardware. "This next generation architecture took several hundred people several years to build," he explained, "but this specific implementation of that architecture should take about 50 engineers. It's something we're running full throttle on."

However, he took pains to note that the new console GPU is bringing no PC-related baggage with it. "It's nothing to do with Windows, it doesn't use any of the Windows features, and it's not about driving Windows," he said. "It's not about the PC at all."

Sony plans to have some form of development hardware for its next console to developers next March, according to the timetable revealed by chief technology officer Masa Chatani earlier this year. However, it's been reluctant to narrow down a release window for the finished hardware, beyond some time in 2006. Judging from Huang's comments, though, it could arrive relatively early in that year.

That has to have M$ cringing. "It's nothing to do with Windows, it doesn't use any of the Windows features, and it's not about driving Windows," he said. "It's not about the PC at all."

Nix to windoze, bill gates must be fuming. M$ has been trying to sell sony on windoze since the ps2 days. They've been trying to sell the entire industry on the wonders of XNA.

I'd still bet on a spring release 2006 for japan, fall 2006 NA and Europe. However, if the xbox next has a huge impact, sony might not wait that long for a NA release. You have to wonder about production capacity though, they'll be still selling all sorts of ps2 units, they'll be knee deep in psp production and they'll add the ps3 on top of that.

I don't see the DS getting supplanted by the psp anytime soon. Nintendo has a decade or so monopoly and fans that border on the evangelical, plus a media predisposed to viewing nintendo in a favorable light. It took sony a while to gain the upper hand on the n64 and it'll take a while for the psp. One thing that should be noted is that the DS could be very well a stopgap machine. Who knows what kind of lifespan this device will actually have. NIntendo may fight back with a highend gba unit and match the psp feature for feature. Right now, if nintendo just sticks with the DS against the psp, a lot of gamers will gravitate to the psp. Its sexy, sleek, powerful, feature rich and the screen is beautiful. Whatever market share the psp garners will be mostly at the expense of nintendo and that ultimately will be a blow.

The ps3 is not going to be easy to pull off, the ps2 was kids stuff compared to this. And pricing. Man, I just can't see $300 for a ps3, with blu-ray, the cell, nvidia gpu, a hard drive? Even with sony's vertical integration and experience, this is going to be very difficult to pull off. No wonder they've got so many partnerships going. Then again, they shocked the industry with a $200 price point for the psp. Maybe they can pull it off. We'll find out in a couple of years.

[Gadfly2317]

I don't see the DS getting supplanted by the psp anytime soon. Nintendo has a decade or so monopoly and fans that border on the evangelical, plus a media predisposed to viewing nintendo in a favorable light. It took sony a while to gain the upper hand on the n64 and it'll take a while for the psp. One thing that should be noted is that the DS could be very well a stopgap machine. Who knows what kind of lifespan this device will actually have. NIntendo may fight back with a highend gba unit and match the psp feature for feature.

I thought everyone had decided the PsP was going to destroy nintendo on handheld. Evangelical fans? Yeah, there's a core, but like you said, where people buying the Gameboy because they had no choice, no competition? There are some fanatical older gamers, but I'm not sure there's much loyalty; with kids its all about what's cool. Nintendo is NOT cool.

I've taken to loitering around the kid-heavy DS forum at Nintendo's website to see what people are talking about (there's adults too, with the same hopes for RTS and tactics games I have). It's funny though, there's a whole thread about getting made fun of at school for owning a DS or nintendo anything. Sony School yard Fanbullys. Too Funny!

I'm not sure what good a hi-end GBA unit would do. Part of the phenomena for the SP is that its so affordable, no parent could deny their kid something to game on at that price (and still keep the TV free for the adults.). You say the PsP's success will come at Nintendo's, but wasn't everyone saying PsP would expand the handheld market to older, more affluent gamers? Is that no longer the case? Probably not. I've always thought, and still do, that the vast majority of handheld gaming will be done by the under-16 crowd. Older gamers have their own tv's, consoles, college, work, busy schedules.

Kids have less money and more opportunity to actually use a handheld, bus rides, in the back of car, study hall, and to game on in one-TV households where the parents are watching tv. Most adults don't game away from home, and when they come home they aren't going to play a PsP or a GBA. So yeah, I agree that PsP sales will come at the expense of DS/SP sales. There are a lot of kids already want this thing. Loyalty to nintendo? You'll love this post I saw over at Nintendo: "I've asked for a DS for Christmas, but if I don't get it, then I'm going to get a PsP for my birthday." How's that for evangelical loyalty?

Regarding your posts on the next gen consoles, they sound expensive. One more reason I'm concerned about an industry collapse or recession. They have to really out do this generation, which will be expensive. I just can't see these machines at 300. If they are, they are taking a HUGE loss (more than a normal launch loss). And with this gen offering so much, if the PsP does well at all, that's a lot of money people will have just spent. The cheapskates may be just now picking up their first console, but even some relatively early Ps2 and GC adopters are picking up an xbox for the first time. I'm not sure what the incentive is going to be for a mass adoption of next gen consoles. THIS time, I swear to god, it was because the last consoles were just plain stale, the graphics were ugly, games were drying up, and the Ps2 was backward compatible and played DVD!s Who could resist getting their first DvD player as basically a freebie with a next-gen game system?

None of those ingredients exist now. Beautiful games are cheap--three consoles competeting have assured the market is flooded with great, inexpensive games, and the handheld wars--both of these handhelds are cool, viable gaming systems that are going to be eating up a lot of gamers dollars in the year/two before the next gen launch.

Just how much money are gamers going to pour down this hole before fatigue, burnout, and the desire to do get some other hobbies (like take up mountain-climbing, or canoing) starts to set in? I know an xbox gamer who's covetting the DS, and the PsP, but says he's decided to save a little longer and get a nice mountain bike, and some camping gear. Next gen, that's not a bad choice--get a really nice bike and get the hell out from in front of the TV. The companies are burning themselves out creatively, and it seems like a lot of us gamers are burning themselves out to. Or maybe I'm just speaking for myself.

[theWacoKid]

Nintendo has already spoken of a gba sp 2 as the true successor to the gba sp, a handheld more in line to compete with the psp.

As far as psp vs ds goes, just like in the console area, they'll be a cross over area. When sony dropped their price they lowered the entry barrier, so you'll be seeing a lot more under 18 buyers than if they unit were a $300+ item.

As for the over 18+ group, correct if I'm wrong here, but havent' guys like you been tellng us all for some time, that a sizeable portion of nintendo's handheld gamers are over 18. Then this is another market that sony can swing over to the psp.

Next gen will be expensive, and that's why you're going to need consoles that can do more than just play games to swing people. Movies playing in high def could be a swing feature. Plasma and lcd displays are supposed to take major price drops the next couple of years. Most new sets out there over the $500 price point are capable of supporting some form of high-def. This is great timing for the introduction of blu-ray.

The online space will have to be defined and expanded and this is another big area rife with possiblities. If nintendo ignores onilne again, they can kiss their ass goodbye, because third parties will run, not walk away.

I'm only looking to buy one console next time out, that's it. This multi-console madness has to end somewhere, so for me it's likely a ps3 and a psp. I'll just have to accept the fact that I'll miss out on games on competing hardware and just live with that. Gaming is an enjoyable distraction but if you become obsessive about it, you need to walk away. I've got too many games and not enough hours in the day to devote to what time I can give to gaming.

After RE4, which looks fantastic, the gc is going, it's collected dust for too long, and I only have about 6 games for it anyway. I just can't do nintendo anymore, they're not going to change, and there's no point in expectng them to. When I dump the gc, I'll have nintendo out of my blood and can forget about them for good.

When I dump the gc, the kirby icon will go as well. See you, kirb.

[Gadfly2317]

Nintendo has already spoken of a gba sp 2 as the true successor to the gba sp, a handheld more in line to compete with the psp.

As far as psp vs ds goes, just like in the console area, they'll be a cross over area. When sony dropped their price they lowered the entry barrier, so you'll be seeing a lot more under 18 buyers than if they unit were a $300+ item.

Here's the deal though, how can nintendo compete at the high end of Sony launches hi-end first? And second, Nintendo's own first party software focuses on game design, not hi-tech, so an expensive handheld sold at a loss. . . what kind of software would Nintendo have to compete with the likes of Gran Turismo? If gamers are going hi-end and are willing to lay out big bucks for handheld, they are going to sway where they already sway with consoles, which is with Sony.


As for the over 18+ group, correct if I'm wrong here, but havent' guys like you been tellng us all for some time, that a sizeable portion of nintendo's handheld gamers are over 18. Then this is another market that sony can swing over to the psp.
We exist, and a lot of of the over 18 crowd will swing to PsP. There are no stats though. Are we 20% of the handheld market? Anyway, that's part of why I've been screaming my lungs out at Nintendo to push the RTS, Western RPG, Tactics, and even Chessmaster 9000 and advertise in PC mags. The hi-tech of the PsP won't draw adults in for ports of Ps2 games, but the DS, even though lower tech, can do scaled versions of some PC genres that could draw in adults; and we already know things like Yoshi Touch and Go should appeal to kids, and KiddyChat to the gradeschoolers and female note-passers.


Next gen will be expensive, and that's why you're going to need consoles that can do more than just play games to swing people. Movies playing in high def could be a swing feature. Plasma and lcd displays are supposed to take major price drops the next couple of years. Most new sets out there over the $500 price point are capable of supporting some form of high-def. This is great timing for the introduction of blu-ray.
Good point. Still, is tech starting to out pace our retinas? DvD from VHS, I was frothing at the mouth, Blue Ray though. . . . I'll tell you one thing, it will be like the Boston Tea Party kinda revolt if something tries to force me to replace my DvD collection. The benefit to the consumer is just smaller and smaller at higher and higher dollars.


The online space will have to be defined and expanded and this is another big area rife with possiblities. If nintendo ignores onilne again, they can kiss their ass goodbye, because third parties will run, not walk away.
I agree here too. I've figured that's what Nintendo was waiting on--for a generation when online is mandatory and not 10% marginal. Let me take a Waco position that Nintendo is going to do nothing but add a few new games but mostly re-do the franchises. Well, Revolution will have Online F-Zero, Online Mario Kart, Online Pikmin, Online Metroid Online SSBM, Online Animal Crossing, Online-The New Game. Because if they DON'T do this, what other blood can they wring from the franchises?


I'm only looking to buy one console next time out, that's it. This multi-console madness has to end somewhere, so for me it's likely a ps3 and a psp. I'll just have to accept the fact that I'll miss out on games on competing hardware and just live with that. Gaming is an enjoyable distraction but if you become obsessive about it, you need to walk away. I've got too many games and not enough hours in the day to devote to what time I can give to gaming.

That's mostly where I'm at. I know I'm viewed as Nintendo fanboy, but mostly I just like a little of everything, and my tastes swing. I was swinging away from Sony at the end of last gen. Right now, I'm swinging back to Sony and the Ps3 will be the system with the most diversity of gaming.

The main thing is, I'm almost positive that unless something truly earthshattering (besides the hype) comes out, I won't get a next gen console early on. I've pretty much ruled Xbox out since its been my biggest dissapointment this time around. It's whole focus seems to be the Mountain Dew Commercial crowd.

My biggest hang-up about buying a Nintendo is the unknown: support? games? online? Since next gen I fully intend to reduce my gaming, if Nintendo does deliver something truly "revolutionary" and the control is cool there is some new game that fires my imagination like Pikmin did, and Zelda is not a rehash like Windwaker, I might be there. But if it fizzles, I will have no problem walking away.

I still say next gen they are ALL going to hurt. We were all dying for the new systems last time around, nearly everyone was committed to at least one system, and I just don't see THAT much enthusiasm anywhere. I guess once the 200 million dollar ad campaigns start, we'll see enthusiasm, but will there be stuff so good it would be generating enthusiasm even if there were no ads and gaming journalism (game journalism, whose existence and profit rests solely on the profitiablity of the rest of the industry.)