Should XBOX2 launch in 2005?

[Daman_He_Hate_Me]

MS is already giving developers SDKs, allowing them to flesh out games based on early prototypes of the XBOX2. Neither Sony nor Nintendo have done the same, nor have they even given developers specs on their next systems. MS has at times said they could launch in 2005, then other times said they would launch when their competition launched. However, could unforseen delays in Sony's cell chip production, be just the break MS is looking for? Should MS launch in 2005?

First, I thought, most definitely not. This will be a repeat of the Dreamcast scenario. But now that I think about it, it kinda makes sense if they can do it. Here is why? They are still losing money on each system produced, if they can produce the new system on a cost structure based around a $300 price point for the console, they may actually make money or at the worse lose no more money per unit than they currently lose. Next, they can release their new console, and drop the current price on XBOX to $99, and stop production. This will make Sony mad as hell, as they would be forced to match, and have to watch that excess revenue go out the door for a whole extra year until 2006. As far as the Dreamcast scenario, I don't think its likely. Sega didn't have a product in place, MS has the current XBOX, with accepted franchises, and a core group of loyal users. Need I say users who were previously early adopters, usually a bit more affluent group that can afford to jump early. Next, Sega didn't have anything like XBOX LIVE.

Now, MS maybe planning to use the same strategy Sony used against the launch of the XBOX. Sony launched a year ahead of MS, but when MS launched, Sony unveiled GT3, Metal Gear, etc., effectively blunting the force of MS' launch. Halo2 will be out this year on XBOX, which means it likely won't appear at launch in 2005 for XBOX2, expect to see PerfectDark or some other game for the launch of XBOX2. But then in 2006, when PS3 launches, MS can drop Halo3, PGR3, Sudeki2, Fable2, and just really hurt the US launch of PS3. Remember, developers are starting to work now on XBOX2 games, so PS3 launch games won't be able to compete, regardless of if PS3 is the more powerful console.

Even prices, MS will probably launch at $300, but when 2006 rolls around, a year after their launch, maybe they start offering bundles with LIVE, or Halo3, or trade in your old XBOX for XBX2 and get a free game and $50 off. It is odd, but in a sense, maybe the tables could be completely turned. I don't think this will make XBOX2 go on to outsell PS3, especially not in Japan. But it could completely kill Nintendo, and maybe balance the marketshare stateside between MS and Sony.

Its kinda odd for Sony, because unless they have something really really huge, I mean major in store for PS3. Time is definitely not on their side, in fact, it is their enemy. XBOX can ride out longer than PS2. XBOX2 developers will have more time with SDKs, a year pre-emptive strike, coupled with a flooding of AAA titles at PS3 launch. Not too mention, this cell technology seems tricky, if MS launches flawlessly for a year, and PS3 releases with glitches in Japan and here in the US again, or with average games again, I don't know.

So what would be the downside of MS strategy, assuming they launched in 2005?

[AOE The Apocalypse]

They are still losing money on each system produced, if they can produce the new system on a cost structure based around a $300 price point for the console, they may actually make money or at the worse lose no more money per unit than they currently lose. Next, they can release their new console, and drop the current price on XBOX to $99, and stop production. So what would be the downside of MS strategy, assuming they launched in 2005?
Nextbox has a possible future if it can convince repeat bussiness from all the people who have the system now and can deal with the fact that they are getting a good deal for there money.I think that most return buyers (normal people) are going to want the same system they have now with something extra added.The way things are looking the next system is going to hurt XB big time. Most parents are going to freak out after just buying a system a few years back and looking at the new system and having to buy a lot of add on hardware (memory cards)for the next system.this is going to take a major hit out of a lot of wallets.Most people are going to be wondering what the next PS and nintendo are going to be able to do and might be save there money for them, this is going to be on a lot of consumers minds. I want Xbox to survive I love having multiple systems(the competition is great) it I want to own a system that will last and not go the way of the dinosaur. .

["The Game"Evolution]

Nextbox has a possible future if it can convince repeat bussiness from all the people who have the system now and can deal with the fact that they are getting a good deal for there money.I think that most return buyers (normal people) are going to want the same system they have now with something extra added.The way things are looking the next system is going to hurt XB big time. Most parents are going to freak out after just buying a system a few years back and looking at the new system and having to buy a lot of add on hardware (memory cards)for the next system.this is going to take a major hit out of a lot of wallets.Most people are going to be wondering what the next PS and nintendo are going to be able to do and might be save there money for them, this is going to be on a lot of consumers minds. I want Xbox to survive I love having multiple systems(the competition is great) it I want to own a system that will last and not go the way of the dinosaur. .

I mean Sony is the king of getting gamers to spend chunks of money on things.(multi-tap,network adaptor,Sony HDD,eyetoy,the new PSX,PSP)So why is that not a big deal until somebody else does it?

If the next Xbox console has to rely on memory cards without a HDD to fall back on then so be it.The PS2 and the GC are still here to talk about it and both consoles uses memory cards exclusively.The memory card issue really isnt a big deal.

Should the next Xbox launch in 2005? I say no.I say wait till 2006 and launch when the PS3 does.Because either way you cut it Sony has a bigger fanbase than MS does.Whatever the Xbox2 does 9 times out of 10 it wont outsell the next Sony console in the long run.Even with a year headstart.

[AOE The Apocalypse]

[QUOTE="The Game"Evolution]I mean Sony is the king of getting gamers to spend chunks of money on things.(multi-tap,network adaptor,Sony HDD,eyetoy,the new PSX,PSP)So why is that not a big deal until somebody else does it?
I can deal withit honestly I have no problem buying memory cards and such. My real problem is that we as gamers no its going to happen beforehand and we can deal with it. The average everyday consumer will feel like they are getting screwed by MS if the new XB comes out and they lose all the abilities they enjoy on the first box. This will hurt them in the public eye. I want a XB2 as much as anyone but if things go downhill from here we as gaming geeks can deal with the hit but Joe-Blow Consumer will not like it.I have been trying to find any possitive reason to buy an Xbox so I can feel good about buying one.I have to deal with a wife who will also play the system and she is just your everyday consumer, I have freinds who don't own Xboxes, and people I work with.When I tell them Oh the XB2 might Not have a HDD, not be able to download music,You might not be able to play the old games on the new system and of course there wont be any black and white buttons(that really pisses them off) They ask me what the hell is wrong with the next Xbox. Most people I know freak out if they hear oh there taking things away so the company can stick you for more money.Like I said I can deal with the hit but other people will not be at all happy when they have to fork out money for things they got for free the first time. Most people when you tell them MS is losing money they say I didn't know that. Most people think Bill Gates has a magical money tree that he can just keep losing money and they say oh well if the stuff I like is not in the next system I won't buy it.I have a mission for you: talk to all your freinds, family, co-workersjust anybody you know and just mention some of the problems tat we have with the nextbox and I will guaratee you not one of them will be happy when you tell them MS is taking away all the goodies or if you do get them you are going to have to pay extra. Most people will say why and then you will have to explain the econmics to them and they will still not understand why they can't leave well enough alone.Guarantee all of them will say it was there on the first one. If the next Xbox console has to rely on memory cards without a HDD to fall back on then so be it.The PS2 and the GC are still here to talk about it and both consoles uses memory cards exclusively.The memory card issue really isnt a big deal.I do agree with you on this but it all comes down to public relations. PS2 and GC did not give you something and then take it away from us.Most people don't like that.
Should the next Xbox launch in 2005? I say no.I say wait till 2006 and launch when the PS3 does.Because either way you cut it Sony has a bigger fanbase than MS does.Whatever the Xbox2 does 9 times out of 10 it wont outsell the next Sony console in the long run.Even with a year headstart.
I totally agree with you on waiting . After losing all the money they have so far MS has to do some major PR overhaul after the first systm was such a loss(money wise) I whould think they would want to do some damage control. Hell it would almost make sense to just make a new system call it something else besides the Xbox2 and continue to make XB1 games and have two systems on the market.

[Daman_He_Hate_Me]

I mean Sony is the king of getting gamers to spend chunks of money on things.(multi-tap,network adaptor,Sony HDD,eyetoy,the new PSX,PSP)So why is that not a big deal until somebody else does it?

If the next Xbox console has to rely on memory cards without a HDD to fall back on then so be it.The PS2 and the GC are still here to talk about it and both consoles uses memory cards exclusively.The memory card issue really isnt a big deal.

Should the next Xbox launch in 2005? I say no.I say wait till 2006 and launch when the PS3 does.Because either way you cut it Sony has a bigger fanbase than MS does.Whatever the Xbox2 does 9 times out of 10 it wont outsell the next Sony console in the long run.Even with a year headstart.

First, I really don't think the next XBOX is going to rely on memory cards. I think AOE is hoping that's the case. But everything I read points to the flash memory being part of the console. This deal wouldn't have been announced if it was just for memory cards, this baby is going into the console. Now, i'm not so dead set against a 2005 launch. I don't think there is anything to lose. MS couldn't get the deal they wanted from NVIDIA to reduce the price of the current graphics card in this XBOX, they are still losing money to produce an XBOX. So why continue that for another two years? NVIDIA and MS won't have an ongoing relationship, so why keep getting stuck by them for 2 years? If they can produce the next console, at the same price as the current one, or cheaper, then automatically the investment starts paying for itself. Of course, not everyone will be ready to jump, but many will. Meanwhile, just like people still buy PSOnes, people will still be able to buy the old XBOX. And if XBOX2 can release 2nd generation games, against PS3 first generation games then that will be a big leg up. If you release at the same time, Sony will smoke XBOX2. If XBOX2 has a lead and has great games, people will be expecting more or at least the same quality from Sony, if they don't deliver by their launch which they probably won't, that would hurt Sony. The biggest advantage for Sony is everybody launching at the same time, because Sony will win the hype war. If Sony has to match up against an already established XBOX2 lineup of games, that hype will get squashed and Sony will have to compete on the strength of its games.

[Nissian X]

[QUOTE]
I can deal withit honestly I have no problem buying memory cards and such. My real problem is that we as gamers no its going to happen beforehand and we can deal with it. The average everyday consumer will feel like they are getting screwed by MS if the new XB comes out and they lose all the abilities they enjoy on the first box. This will hurt them in the public eye. I want a XB2 as much as anyone but if things go downhill from here we as gaming geeks can deal with the hit but Joe-Blow Consumer will not like it.I have been trying to find any possitive reason to buy an Xbox so I can feel good about buying one.I have to deal with a wife who will also play the system and she is just your everyday consumer, I have freinds who don't own Xboxes, and people I work with.When I tell them Oh the XB2 might Not have a HDD, not be able to download music,You might not be able to play the old games on the new system and of course there wont be any black and white buttons(that really pisses them off) They ask me what the hell is wrong with the next Xbox. Most people I know freak out if they hear oh there taking things away so the company can stick you for more money.Like I said I can deal with the hit but other people will not be at all happy when they have to fork out money for things they got for free the first time. Most people when you tell them MS is losing money they say I didn't know that. Most people think Bill Gates has a magical money tree that he can just keep losing money and they say oh well if the stuff I like is not in the next system I won't buy it.I have a mission for you: talk to all your freinds, family, co-workersjust anybody you know and just mention some of the problems tat we have with the nextbox and I will guaratee you not one of them will be happy when you tell them MS is taking away all the goodies or if you do get them you are going to have to pay extra. Most people will say why and then you will have to explain the econmics to them and they will still not understand why they can't leave well enough alone.Guarantee all of them will say it was there on the first one. I do agree with you on this but it all comes down to public relations. PS2 and GC did not give you something and then take it away from us.Most people don't like that.

I totally agree with you on waiting . After losing all the money they have so far MS has to do some major PR overhaul after the first systm was such a loss(money wise) I whould think they would want to do some damage control. Hell it would almost make sense to just make a new system call it something else besides the Xbox2 and continue to make XB1 games and have two systems on the market.

If XB2 was to use memory cards, and had no backwards compatibility and you wouldn't be able to download music, that just might be enough for me not to buy it, well not at first anyway.

MS probably, or at least they should know that alot of people are going to think like that when the next Xbox is released, and add those features into the picture, no one knows for sure that the next Xbox will or will not have, yet.

[GameLegend]

I dont know if MS is actually going to launch X-box2 by 2005. According to the article i wrote, Nintendo claims it has very reliable sources that None of the next gen system would be released by 2005. They concluded that statement stating their console will be first released in 2006. This is a bold statement, and they are still standing by that today, but please dont bother bring up those other controverial articles and interviews about Nintendo stating some useless 'we are gonners' statements, i m soo tired of hering those.

[joquito]

I like your ideas Daman but... I personally think Xbox next WILL have a HDD. Live won't work without it. I think that with the economy as it is, most consumers want to wait for the competition. MS's best chance is to take Sony head on.

People chose not to buy the DC because it lacked great titles, didn't have great exclusives, or didn't have online capabilities, but people waited for the PS2 because it was hyped to death. I remember people mentioning how in a demo of Tekken 4, individual leaves and blades of grass moved independantly. I heard this time and time again. Most thought it would be this awesome grafical powerhouse. If Xbox next launched a year ahead it could still win but most people would still wait for PS3. MS has to and will wait until the PS3 is about to lauch and beat them by a few months or so.

[Daman_He_Hate_Me]

I like your ideas Daman but... I personally think Xbox next WILL have a HDD. Live won't work without it. I think that with the economy as it is, most consumers want to wait for the competition. MS's best chance is to take Sony head on.

People chose not to buy the DC because it lacked great titles, didn't have great exclusives, or didn't have online capabilities, but people waited for the PS2 because it was hyped to death. I remember people mentioning how in a demo of Tekken 4, individual leaves and blades of grass moved independantly. I heard this time and time again. Most thought it would be this awesome grafical powerhouse. If Xbox next launched a year ahead it could still win but most people would still wait for PS3. MS has to and will wait until the PS3 is about to lauch and beat them by a few months or so.

Yeah I remember all the hype about the PS2 capabilities also, even I was hyped. The thing was however, PS2 released months ahead in Japan. So I was reading about the games, just like everyone else around here was, and the hype proved to be false. That is what made me hesitate. The thing is, PS2 will release first in Japan. MS will not ever do well in Japan. But, if MS releases 4th Qtr 2005, and PS3 releases in Japan Summer or Spring 2006, if PS3 games suck butt again in Japan, some US consumers will say, "oh i'm not falling for this again." But, I ask you this JoQ, if MS releases 2006 4th Qtr head to head against Sony, what is going to make consumers choose XBOX2 over PS3? The first 6 months are important, if people buy a PS3 and are unhappy with it, they will just continue to support it, until they can afford to get out of it, or forever just assuming its the best. But if they have knowledge beforehand, maybe they can make an informed decision.

PS3 will have a hugely successful Japanese release, which will increase anticipation of US consumers, the performance of XBOX2 will be an unknown. And PS3 will kill XBOX2 head to head. Now, no matter what MS does, PS3 is going to win head to head. I just think it is possible to gain a million to 2 million users in 2005. Word of mouth will spread by those early adopters, and maybe the throttling that will come in 2006 won't be nearly as bad. But head to head with unknown products there will be no PS2 to XBOX converts, I don't see a reason why they would convert, with two unknown quantities...I think its interesting, we will see soon enough. It is still a long hard wait for PS2 users though, I mean that has gotta be a lotta love. You have all of this year, ouch, all of 2005, then 3/4ths of 2006. I'll tell you that is somekind of love to suffer with a PS2 that long.

[joquito]

MS could lauch here in the US near the same time as PS3's Japanese launch, which would give MS the edge here in the US. It would give consumers a chance to see how Xbox Next compares to PS3 without allowing people to go out and just buy the PS3. People will feel that they had the chance to truly compare and make a fair choice. Most consumers don't want to try hands on but want to hear third-party expert opinoin; ie Electronics Boutique workers, their neighbor's kid, Magazine reviewers, or internet reviewers. If Xbox Next can't win this way then they are doomed to fail.

The Backwards compatibility issue will be the biggest issue this time around. No one will want to switch consoles if they have $400 worth of games invested in it.

[Daman_He_Hate_Me]

MS could lauch here in the US near the same time as PS3's Japanese launch, which would give MS the edge here in the US. It would give consumers a chance to see how Xbox Next compares to PS3 without allowing people to go out and just buy the PS3. People will feel that they had the chance to truly compare and make a fair choice. Most consumers don't want to try hands on but want to hear third-party expert opinoin; ie Electronics Boutique workers, their neighbor's kid, Magazine reviewers, or internet reviewers. If Xbox Next can't win this way then they are doomed to fail.

The Backwards compatibility issue will be the biggest issue this time around. No one will want to switch consoles if they have $400 worth of games invested in it.

Yeah, that is one possiblity, to launch here when they launch in Japan. But I can't remember what time frame did they launch PS2 in Japan? If it is early 2006, 1st QTR, or 2nd QTR, MS may as well launch for XMAS 2005, you are only talking about a matter of months. Anyway, what will be will be.

As far as backwards compatiability, I don't care at all about this feature. I've been talking about this on LIVE with people, and most don't seem to care either. I think it is a feature of limited use in the long-run of the console. After the first year, no one will care, however everyone will continue to pay for the hardware/software necessary to support it. I just don't want MS to have to increase the costs of the unit, for this feature that is of limited use. I can finish the games i'm currently playing on my current console, and then switch over. In fact, before launch I will be trying to complete those games and get them out of the way. Someone on LIVE said it like this, when XBOX2 comes out, if people still want to play old XBOX games, they did something wrong or it ain't enough good launch games. When XBOX launched with Halo, DOA2, PGR, NFL FEVER, ODDWORLD, Fuzion, I had no time for any other gaming platform, which for me was the PC/Dreamcast. It was months before I even went back to a PC game, and the DC was disconnected never to be played again. I know, some people will care about this, but to not buy the system because of this, is incredibly short-sighted. The future games are what is most important, and no one is ripping peoples old XBOX away. Just put it in a closet, if you feel the need to play some old games hook it up. But, again, to each his own.

When PS3 comes out, do you think anyone will really want to play PS2 games? Which will be barely functional by then.